Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Eurozone grows 0.4%; Bank of England lowers UK growth forecast; Settling the India-Pakistan mango debate

1 Eurozone grows 0.4% (BBC) The economy of the eurozone grew by 0.4% in the first three months of the year, official figures have shown, as its slow recovery continues. Although the figure was slightly below analysts' expectations, it shows growth in the bloc has been accelerating slowly over the past year. It was also the fastest quarterly growth rate for nearly two years.

Germany's economy grew by just 0.3% in the first three months of the year. This was down from growth of 0.7% seen in the previous quarter. Inflation in Germany, as in the rest of the eurozone, remains below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of just below 2%.

In France, the economy grew at its fastest rate in nearly two years, expanding by 0.6% in the quarter. There was also good news from Italy, which recorded its first growth since the third quarter of 2011. The economy expanded by 0.3% in the first three months of the year.

However, Greece's economy shrank 0.2% in the first quarter, slipping back into recession following a 0.4% contraction during the final quarter of 2014. Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global, said the eurozone growth figure suggested the economy had benefited from sharply lower oil prices, a weakened euro and increasing European Central Bank monetary stimulus.


2 Bank of England lowers UK forecast (Heather Stewart in The Guardian) The Bank of England has cut its forecasts for GDP and wage growth, but insisted Britain’s economic recovery remained “solid”. The Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) predicted growth of 2.5% in 2015, down from the 2.9% it was expecting in February. The MPC also cut its forecast for next year from 2.9% to 2.6%, and for 2017 from 2.7% to 2.4%.

The Bank’s more cautious approach came as new data from the Office for National Statistics showed that the unemployment rate fell to 5.5% in the three months to March, down from 5.6% the previous month. The drop of 35,000 in the number of unemployed people took the total to 1.82 million, a seven-year low. Since inflation dropped to about zero at the beginning of this year, real wages have soared.

As wages rise and the impact of falling oil prices wanes, the MPC expects inflation to bounce back to its 2% target at the end of its two-year forecasting horizon, allowing it to raise interest rates at the gradual pace currently priced in by the City. The Bank has repeatedly had to reduce its forecasts for wage growth. This is because pay has failed to recover as rapidly as the improvement in the labour market would suggest, creating a prolonged squeeze on living standards.


3 Settling the India-Pakistan mango debate (Shivam Vij in Dawn) I am telling nothing but the truth when I tell you that Indian mangoes are better than Pakistani mangoes. It infuriates me when Pakistanis don't agree. That makes mangoes an India-Pakistan dispute just like Kashmir. Like a good Indian, I don't think this needs a referendum. Of course our mangoes are better.

Don't get me wrong. I think India and Pakistan should make love not war. Pakistan is a place where I have my roots and some very dear friends. Yet, there is this little thorn between us: their claim that their mangoes are better. The problem with such Pakistani mango lovers is that they are Pakistanis first and mango lovers second. Which is not to say I have tasted Pakistani mangoes. Why would I do that when I get to eat the world's best mangoes? India has over 1,200 varieties of mangoes, Pakistan only 400.

The most famous Pakistani mango is known as Anwar Ratol. Half of the Pakistani mango nationalism is based on the claim that Indians haven't tried the Anwar Ratol. What most Pakistanis don't know is that the Anwar Ratol has its roots in a village two hours from Delhi, in what is now the Baghoat district of western Uttar Pradesh. Many years before Partition, a mango grower from Ratol migrated to what is now the Pakistani part of Punjab and named a sprig he'd transplanted there after his father, Anwar.

So, the mango on whose basis Pakistanis claim their mango superiority, even that is from India. Doesn't that settle the India-Pakistan mango debate? Having established in my head that Indian mangoes were thus better than Pakistani ones, I wondered why this was so important to me. How could I call myself post-nationalist and believe in mango nationalism?

Discussing the issue of mangoes with several people gave me the answer. I realised that even within India, people fight over which mango is the best. There's a great Delhi-Bombay divide over the Alphonso. The expensive Alphonso, we north Indians feel, is over-rated. It is too sweet, too perfect. My favourite mango is the Dasheri. I grew up in Lucknow and because the Dasheri orchards of Malihabad are right next door, the markets are flooded with Dasheri every summer.

When I went to Ratol and tasted its signature mango, I felt it was like a better version of the Dasheri. But I censored the thought lest I betray my loyalty to the Malihabadi Dasheri. There lies the answer. Mangoes are such a big part of our childhood memory that the mangoes we grew up with define who we are. That is why, I realised, I took such strong objection to the Pakistani claim of their mangoes being better, or for that matter the Bombay arrogance about Alphonsos.

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