Wednesday, March 8, 2017

China's first trade deficit since 2014; Oil tumbles over 5% to 2017 low; Iceland asks firms to prove equal pay

1 China’s first trade deficit since 2014 (BBC) China has reported its first monthly trade deficit in three years, after imports surged and a slowdown during the Lunar New Year holidays hit output. 
Higher commodity prices and domestic demand were credited with pushing February's imports up 38.1% on a year earlier. But exports unexpectedly fell 1.3%, giving a trade deficit of $9.2bn for the month.

China's monthly imports last exceeded exports in February 2014. The country's economic data from January and February can be distorted by the long holidays, which see businesses slowing down and often cutting back operations or closing completely. And most analysts agree that the latest data is just a blip, with a surplus inevitable again once the impact of the holidays tails off.

With the Chinese economy expanding at its slowest pace in 26 years in 2016, Beijing is likely to be heartened by the latest import figures, as it looks for signs of improvement. Leaders are trying to rebalance the economy, reducing reliance on state investment and exports, and growing more through domestic consumption.


2 Oil tumbles over 5% to 2017 low (Straits Times) Oil prices slumped to their lowest level of 2017 on March 8 following a bearish US supply report that also dented American petroleum-linked shares. The US oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, slid more than five per cent to $50.28 a barrel, its lowest price since December. International oil benchmark Brent also ended the day at a low for 2017.

The retreat in oil prices came on a choppy day for global stocks, with US equities finishing mostly lower, Asian markets mixed and European equities close to flat. US investors also have questions about an expected Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week, and doubts about whether President Donald Trump can rapidly enact tax cuts and other key aspects of his agenda.

Oil prices have held solidly above $50 a barrel throughout the first part of 2017, a move that has incentivized US shale producers begin to ramp production back up after a two-year slump in oil prices. But US Energy Department's inventory report showed a hefty increase of eight million barrels in petroleum stocks in the latest week.


3 Iceland asks firms to prove equal pay (San Francisco Chronicle) Iceland will be the first country in the world to make employers prove they offer equal pay regardless of gender, ethnicity, sexuality or nationality, the Nordic nation's government said on the International Women's Day.
The government said it will introduce legislation to parliament this month, requiring all employers with more than 25 staff members to obtain certification to prove they give equal pay for work of equal value.

While other countries, and the US state of Minnesota, have equal-salary certificate policies, Iceland is thought to be the first to make it mandatory for both private and public firms. The North Atlantic island nation, which has a population of about 330,000, wants to eradicate the gender pay gap by 2022. Social Affairs and Equality Minister Thorsteinn Viglundsson said "the time is right to do something radical about this issue."

Iceland has been ranked the best country in the world for gender equality by the World Economic Forum, but Icelandic women still earn, on average, 14 to 18 percent less than men. In October thousands of Icelandic women left work at 2:38 p.m. and demonstrated outside parliament to protest the gender pay gap. Women's rights groups calculate that after that time each day, women are working for free.

Iceland has introduced other measures to boost women's equality, including quotas for female participation on government committees and corporate boards. Such measures have proven controversial in some countries, but have wide support across Iceland's political spectrum.


Tuesday, March 7, 2017

A stock market-economy disconnect, warns OECD; CIA snoops via TVs, says Wikileaks; Poachers kill rhino for horn in Paris zoo

1 A stock market-economy disconnect, warns OECD (San Francisco Chronicle) There appears to be a disconnect between the recent surge in stock markets and the global economy's underlying strength, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has warned.

Many indexes, particularly in the US, have rallied over the winter to hit record highs. The OECD noted, however, that expectations for company earnings in the US and Europe have not been revised up on the whole. And growth in consumption and investment is still lagging.

The OECD predicts that global economic growth this year will be 3.3 percent and rise to around 3.6 percent in 2018. However, it warned that the "projected modest upturn" could be derailed by a number of factors, including the possibility of a downturn in markets, greater barriers to trade set up by governments, and uncertainties about the path of interest rates around the world.

It said the global economy remains beset by sub-par growth and high inequality following the financial crisis.


2 CIA snoops via TVs, says Wikileaks (Leo Kelion & Gordon Corera on BBC) Wikileaks has published details of what it says are wide-ranging hacking tools used by the CIA. The alleged cyber-weapons are said to include malware that targets Windows, Android, iOS, OSX and Linux computers as well as internet routers.

Some of the software is reported to have been developed in-house, but the UK's MI5 agency is said to have helped build a spyware attack for Samsung TVs. A spokesman for the CIA would not confirm the details.

Wikileaks said that its source had shared the details with it to prompt a debate into whether the CIA's hacking capabilities had exceeded its mandated powers. These latest leaks - which appear to give details of highly sensitive technical methods - will be a huge problem for the CIA. There is the embarrassment factor - that an agency whose job is to steal other people's secrets has not been able to keep their own.

Then there will be the fear of a loss of intelligence coverage against their targets who may change their behaviour because they now know what the spies can do. And then there will be the questions over whether the CIA's technical capabilities were too expansive and too secret.

Because many of the initial documents point to capabilities targeting consumer devices, the hardest questions may revolve around what is known as the "equities" problem. The NSA has already faced questions when many of its secrets were revealed by Edward Snowden, and now it may be the CIA's turn.

The effort to compromise Samsung's F8000 range of smart TVs was codenamed Weeping Angel, according to documents dated June 2014. They describe the creation of a "fake-off" mode, designed to fool users into believing that their screens had been switched off.

Instead, the documents indicate, infected sets were made to covertly record audio, which would later be transferred over the internet to CIA computer servers once the TVs were fully switched back on, allowing their wi-fi links to re-establish. Samsung has not commented on the allegations.


3 Poachers kill rhino, take horn in Paris (Kim Willsher in The Guardian) Poachers have broken into a French zoo, killing a four-year-old white rhinoceros and sawing off its horn. Keepers found the dead animal, named Vince, in the African enclosure of the zoo at Thoiry, west of Paris, on Tuesday morning. It had been shot in the head and its large horn removed with a chainsaw.

The poachers fled before they could remove the animal’s second horn, either because they were disturbed or because their equipment failed, police said. Authorities described the incident as the first of its kind in Europe.

Park director Thierry Duguet said the attack was “unbelievable” and that Vince had been one of the most popular attractions at the zoo. “An act of such extreme violence has never happened before in Europe.”

A rhinoceros horn has an estimated value of between €30,000 and €40,000. Detectives say there is an established trade network in illegally poached horn between France and Asia. The white rhino is an endangered species, with an estimated 21,000 remaining in the wild across the world, mainly in South Africa and Uganda.

Their horns are sought after in Asia, where they are valued for their supposed aphrodisiac qualities. In Zimbabwe last autumn, the authorities announced they would remove the horns of 700 adult rhinoceros to dissuade attacks from poachers.


Monday, March 6, 2017

Trump signs new travel ban order; Higher wages alone won't retain talent; Footballer who has saved lives of four opponents

1 Trump signs new travel ban order (BBC) President Donald Trump has signed a new executive order placing a 90-day ban on people from six mainly Muslim nations. Iraq - which was covered in the previous seven-nation order - has been removed from the new one after agreeing to additional visa vetting measures.

The directive, which includes a 120-day ban on all refugees, takes effect on 16 March. The previous order, which was blocked by a federal court, sparked confusion at airports and mass protests. The new order was unveiled by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Attorney General Jeff Sessions and Department of Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly.

In justifying the refugee ban, Mr Sessions said there are more than 300 refugees under investigation for potential terror offences. But no further details were given. Citizens of Iran, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen, the other six countries on the original 27 January order, will once more be subject to a 90-day travel ban.

Iraq has been taken off the banned list because its government has boosted visa screening and data sharing, White House officials said. The new directive says refugees already approved by the State Department can enter the US. It also lifts an indefinite ban on all Syrian refugees. 

Green Card holders (legal permanent residents of the US) from the named countries will not be affected. The new order does not give priority to religious minorities, unlike the previous directive. Critics of the Trump administration had argued that this was an unlawful policy showing preference to Christian refugees.


2 Higher wages alone won’t retain talent (Sam Chan in Straits Times) As technological innovation in Asia gathers pace, firms will race to secure top talent who have multiple skill sets to fit niche roles, driving demand and wages for these professionals higher.

The gig economy is also becoming a bigger feature here as more organisations reward high-calibre talent for the unique skills they bring to specific projects, even if on only a contract basis. Of all the companies considered in a survey, 68 per cent are using contractors, mostly in the technology and business support industries.

More companies are adopting strategies such as annual leave, medical benefits and completion bonuses to attract more professional contract workers, said the consultancy. As the contract market matures, employees have come to see contract work as a way to achieve better work-life balance and pick up new skill sets - all while earning a decent amount.

In an age of high staff turnover and vast opportunities for skilled workers, wages have become an insufficient incentive in talent attraction and retention, according to recruitment consultancy Michael Page. It noted that other factors, such as career progression, training, work-life balance and corporate values, are also rapidly becoming "pull" factors for an increasing number of employees.


3 Footballer who has saved lives of four opponents (Dominic Fifield in The Guardian) Little more than a week on and Francis Koné can recall the incident vividly. “The opposition goalkeeper was still, lying on his back, and I could see the whites of his eyes. He was either unconscious or worse. So I planted one foot across his chest to keep his left arm tightly in and tried to force my fingers into his mouth.

“I eventually prised his teeth apart and pulled the tongue back. It was slippery with the saliva and at some point he actually bit me, the jaws clamping back down. It was all over in a few seconds, and when the goalkeeper actually tried to say something I knew he was going to be fine. That’s when I got up and walked away.”

Koné boasts no formal medical training but he does have experience. Aside from his remarkable transformation from a target of racist abuse to potential lifesaver, it is just as staggering to acknowledge that the incident two Saturdays ago was the fourth occasion over an eight-year professional career, spent at clubs in six countries, when he has prevented a team-mate or opponent swallowing their tongue.

Not all have been on the pitch. In Thailand, where he had arrived as an 18-year-old seeking opportunities with PTT Rayong and Muangthong United, a team-mate collapsed after suffering a head injury in the gym. “I had to pull his tongue from his throat that day, and was bitten too,” he said.

“The second time was back in Africa, where I’d played for Togo and had been asked by a friend to turn out in an exhibition game before going back to my club, Al-Mussanah, in Oman. The third time [again in Africa] was only two years ago.”

Koné, who qualifies for Togo through his mother but was born in Bondoukou in the north of Ivory Coast and raised outside Abidjan, the economic capital of the country, has endured hardships aplenty in pursuing his football career. He spent his childhood fishing for crabs and washing cars to earn enough to buy boots, then excelled leading the line in a side who won the semi-professional third division.


Sunday, March 5, 2017

Zero hour contracts reach record; The rise of ransomware; North Korea fires missiles towards Sea of Japan

1 Zero hour contracts reach record (Kamal Ahmed on BBC) The number of people on controversial zero hours contracts in the UK has reached a record high of 910,000. New figures based on an analysis of Office for National Statistics data reveal that 105,000 more people were on contracts that do not guarantee work in 2016 compared with the same period in 2015.

That's an increase of nearly 14%, and 30% higher than 2014. In 2005, there were just 100,000 people on zero hours contracts (ZHCs). But although the new figures are a record, they also reveal a sharp slowing in the rate of increase in the last six months of 2016.

That decline in the rate of increase for such contracts - which have been criticised for being forced on lower paid workers - could be down to three reasons. First, as the levels of employment reach record highs, people looking for work can be more demanding about the type on contracts they sign.

Second, as the UK approaches full employment, the number of new jobs being created - whether full time or zero hours - is slowing. The third reason appears to be business reputation. After controversies over zero hours contracts at companies such as Sports Direct, a number of businesses have either stopped using them or reduced their use.

Although zero hours contracts have been controversial, many say they provide flexibility to people such as students, parents and those with other caring responsibilities. The employee - who still receives employment rights such as annual leave - does not have to accept work offered.


2 The rise of ransomware (Ed Clowes in Gulf News) Japanese anti-virus developer Trend Micro’s annual cybersecurity report reveals a 752 per cent increase in ransomware, the software used by hackers to block data and then demand money to return it.

The company’s 2016 Security Roundup also noted that cyber threats reached an all-time high in 2016, with ransomware scams gaining increased popularity among cybercriminals looking to extort enterprises.

In a recent interview, Microsoft’s Cyril Voisin, Executive Security Advisor for the company’s Enterprise Cybersecurity Group in the Middle East and Africa, spoke about the growing threat from ransomware, and what could be done to combat it.

Whilst ransomware isn’t the most popular malware in the region yet, “it is still a source of concern, because the idea that someone can infect your machine, encrypt all your data so you can’t read it, and then ask you for money to unlock it — that is scary,” Voisin said.

There was an attack against the Hollywood Presbyterian Medical Centre’s systems in February 2016. The hospital eventually paid 40 bitcoin, the cryptocurrency that was worth about $17,000 at the time, to recover its patients’ records.


3 North Korea fires missiles towards Sea of Japan (Straits Times) North Korea fired four ballistic missiles early on Monday (March 6), three of which landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said, the latest in a series of provocative tests by the reclusive state.

“Multiple ballistic missiles” were launched from the Tongchang-ri region near the North’s border with China and flew about 1,000 km, South Korean military officials said, without providing the number of missiles. Acting president Hwang Kyo Ahn convened a national security meeting on Monday, South Korea’s presidential office said.

Japanese officials described the launches as a grave threat and said they lodged “strong protests” with nuclear-armed North Korea. No reports of damage to shipping or aircraft had been received since the launches, Japanese officials said.


Saturday, March 4, 2017

China PM sees global upheaval ahead; How Aramco IPO will redefine Saudi Arabia; China growth target cut to 6.5%

1 China PM sees global upheaval ahead (Tom Phillips in The Guardian) China’s prime minister has warned the world is entering a period of profound political and economic upheaval as the spectre of Donald Trump hung over the opening day of the country’s annual national people’s congress.

Li Keqiang urged China to brace itself for “more complicated and graver situations” ahead, as a result of developments’ “interwoven risks and dangers both at home and aboard”. Addressing about 3,000 delegates in the Tiananmen Square auditorium, Li sought to contrast China with Trump’s increasingly inward-looking America.

“We will ... oppose protectionism in its different forms [and] become more involved in global governance,” Li aid. Kerry Brown, a professor of Chinese politics at King’s College London, said Trump’s election meant the world was looking to Beijing for leadership like never before.

“Now China is a stabiliser rather than a destabiliser. Suddenly these congresses are not just about domestic issues – they are actually a global power doing global things because of the space that America, Brexit and others have opened up around it. So they have a much bigger potential impact.”


2 How Aramco IPO will redefine Saudi Arabia (Matein Khalid in Khaleej Times) The $100 billion Saudi Aramco IPO, four-time bigger than the Alibaba offer, is a historic event in world finance and politics. The choice of its investment banking advisors, underwriters and listing exchange reflects the House of Saud's historic political and economies relationships with American oil supermajors and money centre banks.

The House of Morgan was to international banking what the House of Saud is to global oil. So it is natural that JPMorgan is the lead underwriter of the Saudi Aramco IPO. The choice of Morgan Stanley is governed by its historic role in the Eurobond market and its armies of private client wealth management advisors, inherited from Jamie Gorman's Smith Barney deal.

HSBC also makes strategic sense since it was the joint venture partner of the Saudi British Bank and has built a dominant franchise in trading GCC securities via its own subsidiaries and HSBC Amanah.
Though I heard Saudi officials visited London, Tokyo, Singapore and Hong Kong to discuss listing options, only the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) can provide the planet's deepest pool of investor liquidity for the world's largest oil and gas IPO. The Saudi Aramco IPO will be a complex 

international deal, given the colossal size of the kingdom's reserves, output and downstream empires.
The Saudi Aramco IPO is designed to lessen the kingdom's dependence on black gold and kick-start the Saudi capital markets. Saudi Arabia has realised that reliance on bank financing alone is a systemic threat to its economic future since it amplifies local credit boom-bust cycles.

The kingdom, like every other GCC state, needs to shift to an "asset securitisation" model to finance its corporate sector. The Saudi Aramco IPO is thus a bellwether for the kingdom's new financial renaissance.

Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's deputy crown prince, estimates Saudi Aramco is worth between $2 trillion and $3 trillion. This makes Saudi Aramco the most valuable company in the history of the world, let alone the Middle East.


3 China growth target cut to 6.5% (BBC) The Chinese growth target for this year has been cut to around 6.5%, down from 6.5 to 7% last year, Premier Li Keqiang has announced. He was addressing the country's rubber-stamp parliament, the National People's Congress which has gathered in Beijing for its annual session.

The Chinese economy expanded at its slowest pace in 26 years in 2016. Mr Li said he would tackle state "zombie enterprises" producing more coal and steel than the market needed. Similar pledges in the past have proved hard to fulfil.

NPC leaders are tolerating slightly slower economic growth this year to give them more room to push through some painful reforms to deal with a rapid build-up in debt, Reuters news agency reports.


Friday, March 3, 2017

US rates may rise this month; Snapchat earns millions for a school; The implications of ageing

1 US rates may rise this month (BBC) A rise in US interest rates could be "appropriate" as soon as this month, according to the chair of the US Federal Reserve. Janet Yellen said rate setters will evaluate whether employment and inflation remain in line with expectations when they meet in March.

Ms Yellen also suggested the central bank was likely to raise rates more quickly than over the past two years. Rates went up by 0.25% in December, only the second increase in a decade. The benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate, now stands at 0.5%-0.75%.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets rates, has to ensure that the Federal Reserve achieves its goal of maximum employment and price stability. Ms Yellen said the US economy had exhibited "remarkable resilience" in the face of adverse shocks in recent years" with the jobs market strengthening and inflation rising towards target.

However, she added, it was not a "preset course" and FOMC "stands ready to adjust its assessment of the appropriate path for monetary policy if unanticipated developments materially change the economic outlook".

The Fed expects to raise rates three times this year. When it published its economic forecasts for the next three years in December it suggested that the Federal Funds rate may rise to 1.4% in 2017, 2.1% in 2018, and 2.9% in 2019.


2 Snapchat earns millions for a school (Rupert Neate in The Guardian) The parents of pupils at a Silicon Valley school were sent an unusual letter this week – telling them the school had made at least $24m in profit from a $15,000 punt on messaging app Snapchat.

Five years ago a Saint Francis school parent Barry Eggers, a venture capital investor, had convinced the private school in Mountain View to invest in Snapchat after watching his children become obsessed with the messaging service based on disappearing photos.

Eggers knew he wanted to invest in the promising company, and in a stroke of remarkable generosity he decided to invite Saint Francis to join him. His daughter and son confirmed that their school friends were Snapchat fans.

Eggers was thus sold on Snapchat. He tracked down one of its co-founders Evan Spiegel, and Eggers’ Lightspeed Venture Partners became the first investor in the app. His firm put up $500,000 in funding, but split the deal to allow the Saint Francis school to put in $15,000.

The school’s investment delivered about 2.1m Snapchat shares. It sold about two-thirds of them for $17 each as part of the company’s public float in New York this week. The share sale netted the school’s endowment fund $24m, and the rising price of Snapchat’s shares mean its remaining shares are still worth a further $18.5m.

The proceeds from the share sale would be used to fund “work towards realising the bold vision and goals” of the Catholic school’s strategic plan, which includes expanding financial aid for poorer students. The school’s fees are $17,370-a-year. In 1996 it made a $2.1m return on a $25,000 investment in Advanced Fibre Communications, a telecom services company which is now part of Tellabs.


3 The implications of ageing (Khaleej Times) While many advanced economies have a high share of the 65-plus age group in their population, emerging markets currently represent two-thirds of the world's elderly. The UN forecasts that the share of those aged 65 and above in emerging markets will rise to almost 80 per cent by 2050.

China already has 131 million seniors, more than double the combined older generations of the three most-aged economies in the world - Japan, Italy and Germany. South Korea and Singapore are set to become "hyper-aged" societies (defined by the UN as those in which seniors make up more than 21 per cent of the population) by 2030. Thailand and China will become hyper-aged by 2035.

Asia and other emerging-market regions are getting older faster than previously has been seen. It will take China and Singapore 25 years to progress from an ageing society to an aged society. By comparison, it took the UK 45 years, the US 69 years and France 115 years.

The acceleration of ageing means some societies will get old before they reach high-income status. This could create challenges, including limiting their ability to move up from middle-income status. Thailand and China are likely to face this challenge in the next few decades.

The macroeconomic impacts of ageing on an economy are varied, the most direct and significant of which is through labour supply. Standard Chartered estimates that after decades of positive contributions to GDP growth, demographics will become a drag by 2020 for China, Korea, Hong Kong and Thailand and by 2025 for Singapore.

Demographic trends are challenging Asia's traditional family values system. China is facing a "4-2-1" phenomenon, whereby an only child is responsible for two parents and four grandparents. In China, the nationwide pension system may run a deficit as early as 2030. Policies to raise fertility rates have been widely adopted in Asia to tackle the effects of ageing. They have so far proven unsuccessful.


Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Dow Jones breaks 21,000-mark; London to remain magnet for super-rich; Saudi king's luggage has limos, elevators

1 Dow Jones breaks 21,000-mark (BBC) The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 303.31 points to close at 21,115.55 following US President Donald Trump's address to Congress last night. The S&P 500 index gained 32.32 points, rising to 2,395.96, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index was up 78.59 points at 5,904.03.

Shares have been climbing since Mr Trump's election victory after investor optimism about deregulation. He has also promised to cut taxes and boost infrastructure spending. Financial firms were the top gainers on the Dow, with JP Morgan Chase and American Express both up more than 2.3%.

Tom Stevenson from Fidelity International said the Dow Jones Index only cleared 20,000 points three weeks ago, making this the fastest rise between 1,000 milestones since 1999. Sentiment was helped by comments suggesting that the US central bank may raise rates sooner rather than later.


2 London to remain magnet for super-rich (Rupert Neate in The Guardian) The global super-rich will continue to flock to London despite the UK’s decision to leave the EU, according to a report by property consultants Knight Frank.

The number of UK-based ultra high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs) – those with more than $30m (£24.2m) in assets – is expected to increase by 30% to 12,310 over the next decade. Liam Bailey, Knight Frank’s head of research, said London would remain “the city of choice” for the superrich from the Asia and the Middle East despite concerns over Brexit.

Bailey said Britain’s exit from the EU may have some impact on London’s global appeal, but the UK’s membership of the EU was less important for the world’s richest people than the general population.

While the population of UNHWIs in the UK, which has increased by 28% over the past decade, is expected to keep rising, the number of superrich on the continent is expected to remain flat or decrease. More than 10,000 HNWIs left France last year, 6,000 Italy, 3,000 Greece and 2,000 Spain.

The global population of UHNWIs increased by 6,340 last year to 193,490, after a slight decrease in 2015. Another 60 people were added to the global tally of billionaires last year, taking the total number of dollar billionaires to 2,024 – up 45% over the past decade.


3 Saudi king’s luggage has limos and elevators (Cleofe Maceda in Khaleej Times) Social media news feeds have been abuzz with the announcement that King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud is visiting Indonesia that began Wednesday.

The trip to the world’s largest Muslim-majority country is said to be his first in more than 40 years.  But what got everyone’s attention the most is that the nine-day visit has been keeping hundreds of people in the travel, hospitality and cargo-handling industry busy.

The king of Saudi Arabia is toting with a colossal luggage weighing a total of 459 metric tonnes and is travelling with more than a thousand people. He has taken with him two electric elevators and two limousines and is accompanied by a 1,500-person entourage, which includes 25 princes and 10 ministers.

Adji Gunawan, president of JAS, the Indonesian company commissioned to deal with the king’s cargo, said that the limousines and elevators had been transported ahead of the royal arrival. Gunawan said he had commissioned 178 of his staff in Jakarta and 394 more in Denpasar to take care of the king's huge travel essentials that were scheduled to arrive days before the visit.

He’s not the only state leader who has travelled in grandiose fashion, either.  Former US president Barack Obama flew to Africa in 2013, along with 56 vehicles, including 14 limousines and hundreds of security personnel, according to Washington Post.