Thursday, September 13, 2012

Global child mortality drops; One in five US kids in poverty; In China we (don't) trust; Why men fail


1 Global child mortality drops (BBC) The number of children dying before the age of five has fallen significantly over the past 20 years, the UN children's agency Unicef has said. Some 6.9 million children died before the age of five last year, compared to 12 million such deaths in 1990. Almost 19,000 under-fives died daily in 2011. Unicef said some of the reduction was due to poorer countries getting richer.But some was also due to well-targeted aid such as encouraging breastfeeding or immunising against common diseases.

The sharpest drops in levels of child mortality were in countries that had received a lot of external assistance. "If you look at the countries that have achieved the best results - the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Timor Leste and Liberia - those are the top three - I think in all of those three aid has been a very important contributor," said Unicef's UK director, David Bull. Efforts to target infectious diseases such as measles have cut related deaths globally from 500,000 in 2000 to 100,000 in 2011. 

2 One in five US kids in poverty (The Guardian) New figures have been released by the US census bureau revealing a yearly decline in median household income for Americans, growing inequality and more than one in five children under 18 years old living in poverty. In a survey of data for 2011, the census discovered that real median household income in the US had dipped by 1.5% from its level in 2010 to sit at $50,054 a year. The fall is the second consecutive annual drop and comes in the middle of a bitterly contested election in which America's tepid economic performance has been a central theme.

While President Barack Obama has based his campaign on a claim to have saved America from the brink of financial disaster, Republican challenger Mitt Romney has lambasted the country's lacklustre economic performance, especially continuing high levels of joblessness.

The figures released by the census also show that little dent has been made on America's high levels of poverty, with some 15% of the nation – representing around 46.2 million people – living in poverty in 2011. The figures are worse for the very young, where the poverty rate for those under the age of 18 is 21.9% – or some 16.1 million children. These latter figures are roughly unchanged in 2011 from 2010.

3 In China we (don’t) trust (Thomas L Friedman in The New York Times) One of the standard lines about China’s economy is that the Chinese are good at copying, but they could never invent a Hula-Hoop. How is it that a people who invented papermaking, gunpowder, fireworks and the magnetic compass suddenly only became capable of assembling iPods? I’m wondering if what’s missing in China today is not a culture of innovation but something more basic: trust.

When there is trust in society, sustainable innovation happens because people feel safe and enabled to take risks and make the long-term commitments needed to innovate. The biggest thing preventing modern China from becoming an innovation society, which is imperative if it hopes to keep raising incomes, is that it remains a very low-trust society. China is caught in a gap between its old social structure of villages and families, which created its own form of trust, and a new system based on the rule of law and an independent judiciary. The Communist Party destroyed the first but has yet to build the second because it would mean ceding the party’s arbitrary powers. So China has a huge trust deficit. 

The creation of global trusted business frameworks like Alibaba is starting to enable a new generation of Chinese innovators — who are low cost, but high skilled — to extend their reach. We’ve seen cheap labor out of China; now we’re going to see more cheap genius. Which is why Phillip Brown and Hugh Lauder, in a recent essay argued that a big shift of the global labor market is under way, in which “many of the things we thought could only be done in the West can now be done anywhere in the world, not only more cheaply but sometimes better.” 

4 Why men fail (David Brooks in The New York Times) In her fascinating new book, “The End of Men,” Hanna Rosin posits a new theory. Women, Rosin argues, are like immigrants who have moved to a new country. They see a new social context, and they flexibly adapt to new circumstances. Men are like immigrants who have physically moved to a new country but who have kept their minds in the old one. They speak the old language. They follow the old mores. Men are more likely to be rigid; women are more fluid.

This theory has less to do with innate traits and more to do with social position. When there’s big social change, the people who were on the top of the old order are bound to cling to the old ways. The people who were on the bottom are bound to experience a burst of energy. They’re going to explore their new surroundings more enthusiastically. 

Rosin reports from working-class Alabama. The women she meets are flooding into new jobs and new opportunities — going back to college, pursuing new careers. The men are waiting around for the jobs that left and are never coming back. They are strangely immune to new options. Rosin is not saying that women are winners in a global gender war or that they are doing super simply because men are doing worse. She’s just saying women are adapting to today’s economy more flexibly and resiliently than men. There’s a lot of evidence to support her case. 

Forty years ago, men and women adhered to certain ideologies, what it meant to be a man or a woman. Young women today, Rosin argues, are more like clean slates, having abandoned both feminist and pre-feminist preconceptions. Men still adhere to the masculinity rules, which limits their vision and their movement.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Dr Jekylls, Mr Hydes and Dr Manmohan Singh in Kerala

(My article in The Times of India today)

Kerala's Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde characteristics are rather well-known to all who have come in contact with the captivating green strip on India's south west corner. Sometimes you think the state is Dr Jekyll, at other times, Mr Hyde. On Wednesday, these characteristics will be on display together, and a third persona, the normally speechless Dr Manmohan Singh, will croon why Kerala is a good investment destination.

The three-day Emerging Kerala meet is presented as 'an opportunity to explore, invest and establish business interests in Kerala.' Whatever that means, what is assured is that Kerala's split personality on investment matters will be on public display.

First, the Dr Jekyll part: Most of this characteristic is monopolized by non-resident Keralites who have been exposed to the infrastructure and lifestyles of a Dubai, Doha, London or New York and they are the proponents of 'development in a hurry'. The Dr Jekyll feature is also evident in Keralites who have worked in other parts of the country, notably in the big metros, who are also exposed to 'development'.

The Dr Jekylls are pushing for a high-speed rail corridor complete with a bullet train, a fourth international airport at Aranmula immediately and a fifth one at Kannur in the near future, seaplane services, petrochem and gas-based power projects, IT parks, engineering and automotive units, and some more. Kerala cannot fall behind in development, they argue.

Therein walks Kerala's formidable Mr Hyde: Many of the Hyde personalities are home-grown, and others have come in, adequately fortified by their intellectual pursuits or bitter experiences.

"Please could you explain what is development?", is their opening line, and they would also want investors to understand that Kerala had successfully saved the lion-tailed macaques of Silent Valley from extinction by scrapping a hydel power project, and more recently got a nuclear power station moved from Kothamangalam in Kerala to Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu. How clever it was, they'd like to point out, now that Keralites are watching local people in Kudankulam bear Tamil Nadu police's lathi power, while Kerala stands to get a share of the nuke power produced there.

If the Jekylls and Hydes could at least be clearly identified, investors could deal with them separately. And that is what makes the Kerala split-personality even more uniquely complicated. Investors may think that the ruling United Democratic Front, as the host, would be the perfect Dr Jekyll and the CPM-led Opposition Left Democratic Front Mr Hyde, but that isn't so. In fact, the host itself has a split-personality and six of its MLAs, drawn from the Congress, the Indian Union Muslim League and the Secular Janata Dal have banded together as a green group within the UDF and is cautioning against possible environmental damage that some of the projects showcased at the meet can cause.

In contrast, the hardened Hydes have already made their war cry against the investment meet. They want many of the projects scrapped, and would rather have the meet after a consensus is reached on the definition of development. Senior leaders in opposition have branded the meet a ploy to give away revenue land to private individuals. The Hydes have planned protests in different parts of the state, like a hartal on Wednesday in Aranmula where an international airport is proposed, never mind that the area has one of the highest concentrations of Kerala's international travellers.

All of that leaves chief minister Oommen Chandy somewhat lost, as he strives to pilot the meet through the Jekylls and Hydes. Not to risk anything, Chandy himself took an anticipatory bail, stating no MoUs would be signed at the meet, and that it would just be an opportunity for investors to see the potential of Kerala. Whether they will see Kerala's investment potential or prefer to see the alluring natural beauty of the state by taking a backwater cruise is another question, though.

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Japan growth numbers revised down; Hosiery setback tells China slowdown tale; America's shadow unemployed; What work is really for; Legacy of India milkman V Kurien; The milk and Greek in Kurien


1 Japan growth numbers revised down (BBC) Japan has revised down its growth numbers for the second quarter, raising concerns about a slowdown in the world's third-largest economy. The government said that economy grew at an annual rate of 0.7% during the April to June period. That is down from its earlier estimate of 1.4%. Slowing exports and subdued domestic demand have hurt Japan's growth.

"This is a very significant revision. It means that overall production and investment in Japan was lower than the government had previously estimated," Martin Schulz of Fujitsu Research Institute said. "As a result, the economy is slowing much faster than expected."

Japan's economic growth has been impacted by both international and domestic factors. The export sector, one of the biggest drivers of growth for Japan, has been hurt by slowing demand from key markets such as the US and eurozone. At the same time, growth in Asian countries, such as China and India, which had been faring better than western economies after the global financial crisis, has also slowed further hurting the sector. Analysts said that this weakness in exports has had a knock on effect on corporate investment and dented growth.

2 Hosiery setback tells China slowdown tale (Tania Branigan in The Guardian) The foolish man built his house upon sand; the wise man built his house on a rock. The ambitious entrepreneurs of Datang chose a sturdy nylon and wool foundation. "People always need socks," points out Xu Leile, whose company clothes the feet of the British and US armies, European hikers and pampered pet dogs.

Thanks to Xu and hundreds more like him, "Sock City" – north-west of Tie Town, east of Sweater Town – epitomised China's economic success story. The obscure settlement in eastern Zhejiang province became an export-driven boomtown, producing as much as a third of the world's sock supply and thriving even through the financial crisis in 2008 and the subsequent global recession.

Last year, Datang made roughly two pairs of socks for every person on earth. In Xu's spacious new factory, the shelves are stacked with huge reels of red, blue and orange thread. But ask Xu about the future and he grimaces. "I'm very worried. This year is much worse than 2008-9," he says. The biggest of his rivals to have gone under in May – the Anli Sock Group, which produced 60m pairs of socks annually – could prove to be "the Lehman Brothers of Datang", according to Fan Jianping, chief economist of the State Information Centre.

Failures such as Anli's and a slew of disappointing data in recent weeks are raising fears far beyond China that a slowdown in the world's second largest economy is turning into a hard landing. In the face of Europe's woes and the weak US recovery, Chinese growth has become more important than ever: the ripples are already being felt globally, with commodities analysts blaming tumbling prices on falling demand from China.

3 America’s shadow unemployed (Catherine Rampell in The New York Times) The number of people not in the US labour force — that is, neither working nor looking for work — rose by almost 600,000 in August. Most of the Americans who are “not in the labour force” are categorized as such because they are retired, stay-at-home parents or otherwise not interested in holding a job. But there are also a lot of people who really want to work but have decided not to bother looking for jobs because they think the job market is too discouraging or because they are too busy with training, family responsibilities and so forth.

This group of people who want to work but aren’t looking are sometimes referred to as the shadow unemployed. Their share of the not-in-labour-force population has generally been rising since the recession began almost five years ago. In December 2007, when the recession officially started, 5.9% of people counted as “not in labor force” said they wished they were working. As of last month, that share was 7.8%.

One possible reason the share of people out of the labour force who want work isn’t higher is that school enrollment has risen sharply since the 1990s. A lot of out-of-the-labour-force Americans — particularly young people, and particularly young women — have resigned themselves to not finding a job anytime soon and have decided instead to invest in improving their skills while they wait for the economy to improve.

4 What work is really for (Gary Gutting in The New York Times) Is work good or bad?  Even apart from current worries, the goodness of work is deep in our culture. We applaud people for their work ethic, judge our economy by its productivity and even honour work with a national holiday. But there’s an underlying ambivalence: we celebrate Labour Day by not working, the Book of Genesis says work is punishment for Adam’s sin, and many of us count the days to the next vacation and see a contented retirement as the only reason for working.

We’re ambivalent about work because in our capitalist system it means work-for-pay, not for its own sake.  Most of us inevitably see our work as a means to something else: it makes a living, but it doesn’t make a life. What, then, is work for? Aristotle has a striking answer: “we work to have leisure, on which happiness depends.” This may at first seem absurd. How can we be happy just doing nothing, however sweetly? 

Everything depends on how we understand leisure. Is it mere idleness, simply doing nothing?  Then a life of leisure is at best boring, and at worst terrifying.  No, the leisure Aristotle has in mind is productive activity enjoyed for its own sake, while work is done for something else. The point is that engaging in such activities — and sharing them with others — is what makes a good life. Leisure, not work, should be our primary goal.

5 Legacy of Verghese Kurien, India’s milkman (The Wall Street Journal) India has always won well-deserved praise for the stunning agricultural advances of the 1960s known as the “Green Revolution.” But just as groundbreaking was the “White Revolution” that turned India from a dairy-deficient nation into the world’s largest milk producer. The man who carried out that transformation, Verghese Kurien, passed away early Sunday of age-related ailments. He was 90.

Mr. Kurien pioneered a cooperative model of dairy farming that cut out exploitative middlemen and trading cartels, giving producers control over procurement, processing and marketing. It wasn’t just social service, but big business: The tiny enterprise he founded eventually grew into the Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd., a firm with $2.5 billion in annual revenue in the last fiscal year. It collects dairy product from 3.2 million producers nationwide.

Along the way, he built an iconic brand, “Amul,” that markets not just milk but everything from cheese to ice cream to probiotic yogurt. The company has had an innovative advertising strategy, too: its playful cartoons in billboards and newspapers celebrate major national achievements and often poke fun at celebrities. Rahul daCunha, whose company produces the Amul ad campaign, said Mr. Kurien “mixed two great qualities as a leader – valour and vision.” He not only had the idea of the White Revolution, Mr. daCunha says, but “he had the strength of character to fulfill it”.

6 The milk and the Greek in Kurien (My article in The Economic Times) He’s the father of India’s White Revolution, alright, but Verghese Kurien has also been an early bird among the multitude of Kuriens from Kerala who have made the name popular across the country. Kurien’s tale in Anand may be inked in milk, but the surname he carries has some Greek in it as well. The name has its root in the Greek ‘kyrios’, meaning master, Lord, power or authority, from which comes the word ‘kyriakos’, meaning ‘of the Lord’.

The ‘Cyriacus’ name in Ancient Rome is considered the equivalent of the Greek ‘Kyriakos’, and both these names may have come to Kerala via Syria and through the multiple trade relations that the state had with European nations. Over a couple of thousand years, Kerala has a legion of Kuriakoses, Cyriacs, Kuriens and Kurians, which are different versions of the name with the kyriakos root. And they may all owe a bit of their name’s popularity to Amul Kurien, who left Kerala in his teens and made that surname as popular in the PMO in Jawaharlal Nehru’s time, as with the small-time dairy farmers of Anand, Gujarat.

The other Kuriens of the country may have been in the shadow of the milkman, but many of them have been hardly lesser mortals. The Rajya Sabha vice chairman happens to be seasoned Congressman PJ Kurien, and senior bureaucrat PH Kurien recently shook up the international pharma world when, as Controller of Patents, he granted the first compulsory licence in India in relation to Bayer’s patented drug, Nexavar. The decision is expected to make the drug’s generic version available at a mere Rs 8,900 as against the Rs 2.85 lakh for the patented variety for a month’s course.

Down south, TK Kurien of Wipro is a star in the tech industry, though fewer people may know economist John Kurien. And fewer still may know the amazing story of Mangalathukarottu Mathai Kurian an assistant education officer from Kanjirapally in Kottayam district, who fathered 17 children, nine of who joined government service.

Verghese Kurien may be the most popular Kurien in the country, but there is someone who is senior to him by nearly a decade, and is the Arch Corepiscopo of the Jacobite Syrian Orthodox Church in Kerala, namely Kurien Kaniamparambil.

Finding it all a bit Greek? Never mind, just raise a glass of milk to it.

Japan growth numbers revised down; Hosiery setback tells China slowdown tale; America's shadow unemployed; What work is really for; Legacy of India milkman V Kurien; The milk and Greek in Kurien


1 Japan growth numbers revised down (BBC) Japan has revised down its growth numbers for the second quarter, raising concerns about a slowdown in the world's third-largest economy. The government said that economy grew at an annual rate of 0.7% during the April to June period. That is down from its earlier estimate of 1.4%. Slowing exports and subdued domestic demand have hurt Japan's growth.

"This is a very significant revision. It means that overall production and investment in Japan was lower than the government had previously estimated," Martin Schulz of Fujitsu Research Institute said. "As a result, the economy is slowing much faster than expected."

Japan's economic growth has been impacted by both international and domestic factors. The export sector, one of the biggest drivers of growth for Japan, has been hurt by slowing demand from key markets such as the US and eurozone. At the same time, growth in Asian countries, such as China and India, which had been faring better than western economies after the global financial crisis, has also slowed further hurting the sector. Analysts said that this weakness in exports has had a knock on effect on corporate investment and dented growth.

2 Hosiery setback tells China slowdown tale (Tania Branigan in The Guardian) The foolish man built his house upon sand; the wise man built his house on a rock. The ambitious entrepreneurs of Datang chose a sturdy nylon and wool foundation. "People always need socks," points out Xu Leile, whose company clothes the feet of the British and US armies, European hikers and pampered pet dogs.

Thanks to Xu and hundreds more like him, "Sock City" – north-west of Tie Town, east of Sweater Town – epitomised China's economic success story. The obscure settlement in eastern Zhejiang province became an export-driven boomtown, producing as much as a third of the world's sock supply and thriving even through the financial crisis in 2008 and the subsequent global recession.

Last year, Datang made roughly two pairs of socks for every person on earth. In Xu's spacious new factory, the shelves are stacked with huge reels of red, blue and orange thread. But ask Xu about the future and he grimaces. "I'm very worried. This year is much worse than 2008-9," he says. The biggest of his rivals to have gone under in May – the Anli Sock Group, which produced 60m pairs of socks annually – could prove to be "the Lehman Brothers of Datang", according to Fan Jianping, chief economist of the State Information Centre.

Failures such as Anli's and a slew of disappointing data in recent weeks are raising fears far beyond China that a slowdown in the world's second largest economy is turning into a hard landing. In the face of Europe's woes and the weak US recovery, Chinese growth has become more important than ever: the ripples are already being felt globally, with commodities analysts blaming tumbling prices on falling demand from China.

3 America’s shadow unemployed (Catherine Rampell in The New York Times) The number of people not in the US labour force — that is, neither working nor looking for work — rose by almost 600,000 in August. Most of the Americans who are “not in the labour force” are categorized as such because they are retired, stay-at-home parents or otherwise not interested in holding a job. But there are also a lot of people who really want to work but have decided not to bother looking for jobs because they think the job market is too discouraging or because they are too busy with training, family responsibilities and so forth.

This group of people who want to work but aren’t looking are sometimes referred to as the shadow unemployed. Their share of the not-in-labour-force population has generally been rising since the recession began almost five years ago. In December 2007, when the recession officially started, 5.9% of people counted as “not in labor force” said they wished they were working. As of last month, that share was 7.8%.

One possible reason the share of people out of the labour force who want work isn’t higher is that school enrollment has risen sharply since the 1990s. A lot of out-of-the-labour-force Americans — particularly young people, and particularly young women — have resigned themselves to not finding a job anytime soon and have decided instead to invest in improving their skills while they wait for the economy to improve.

4 What work is really for (Gary Gutting in The New York Times) Is work good or bad?  Even apart from current worries, the goodness of work is deep in our culture. We applaud people for their work ethic, judge our economy by its productivity and even honour work with a national holiday. But there’s an underlying ambivalence: we celebrate Labour Day by not working, the Book of Genesis says work is punishment for Adam’s sin, and many of us count the days to the next vacation and see a contented retirement as the only reason for working.

We’re ambivalent about work because in our capitalist system it means work-for-pay, not for its own sake.  Most of us inevitably see our work as a means to something else: it makes a living, but it doesn’t make a life. What, then, is work for? Aristotle has a striking answer: “we work to have leisure, on which happiness depends.” This may at first seem absurd. How can we be happy just doing nothing, however sweetly? 

Everything depends on how we understand leisure. Is it mere idleness, simply doing nothing?  Then a life of leisure is at best boring, and at worst terrifying.  No, the leisure Aristotle has in mind is productive activity enjoyed for its own sake, while work is done for something else. The point is that engaging in such activities — and sharing them with others — is what makes a good life. Leisure, not work, should be our primary goal.

5 Legacy of Verghese Kurien, India’s milkman (The Wall Street Journal) India has always won well-deserved praise for the stunning agricultural advances of the 1960s known as the “Green Revolution.” But just as groundbreaking was the “White Revolution” that turned India from a dairy-deficient nation into the world’s largest milk producer. The man who carried out that transformation, Verghese Kurien, passed away early Sunday of age-related ailments. He was 90.

Mr. Kurien pioneered a cooperative model of dairy farming that cut out exploitative middlemen and trading cartels, giving producers control over procurement, processing and marketing. It wasn’t just social service, but big business: The tiny enterprise he founded eventually grew into the Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd., a firm with $2.5 billion in annual revenue in the last fiscal year. It collects dairy product from 3.2 million producers nationwide.

Along the way, he built an iconic brand, “Amul,” that markets not just milk but everything from cheese to ice cream to probiotic yogurt. The company has had an innovative advertising strategy, too: its playful cartoons in billboards and newspapers celebrate major national achievements and often poke fun at celebrities. Rahul daCunha, whose company produces the Amul ad campaign, said Mr. Kurien “mixed two great qualities as a leader – valour and vision.” He not only had the idea of the White Revolution, Mr. daCunha says, but “he had the strength of character to fulfill it”.

6 The milk and the Greek in Kurien (My article in The Economic Times) He’s the father of India’s White Revolution, alright, but Verghese Kurien has also been an early bird among the multitude of Kuriens from Kerala who have made the name popular across the country. Kurien’s tale in Anand may be inked in milk, but the surname he carries has some Greek in it as well. The name has its root in the Greek ‘kyrios’, meaning master, Lord, power or authority, from which comes the word ‘kyriakos’, meaning ‘of the Lord’.

The ‘Cyriacus’ name in Ancient Rome is considered the equivalent of the Greek ‘Kyriakos’, and both these names may have come to Kerala via Syria and through the multiple trade relations that the state had with European nations. Over a couple of thousand years, Kerala has a legion of Kuriakoses, Cyriacs, Kuriens and Kurians, which are different versions of the name with the kyriakos root. And they may all owe a bit of their name’s popularity to Amul Kurien, who left Kerala in his teens and made that surname as popular in the PMO in Jawaharlal Nehru’s time, as with the small-time dairy farmers of Anand, Gujarat.

The other Kuriens of the country may have been in the shadow of the milkman, but many of them have been hardly lesser mortals. The Rajya Sabha vice chairman happens to be seasoned Congressman PJ Kurien, and senior bureaucrat PH Kurien recently shook up the international pharma world when, as Controller of Patents, he granted the first compulsory licence in India in relation to Bayer’s patented drug, Nexavar. The decision is expected to make the drug’s generic version available at a mere Rs 8,900 as against the Rs 2.85 lakh for the patented variety for a month’s course.

Down south, TK Kurien of Wipro is a star in the tech industry, though fewer people may know economist John Kurien. And fewer still may know the amazing story of Mangalathukarottu Mathai Kurian an assistant education officer from Kanjirapally in Kottayam district, who fathered 17 children, nine of who joined government service.

Verghese Kurien may be the most popular Kurien in the country, but there is someone who is senior to him by nearly a decade, and is the Arch Corepiscopo of the Jacobite Syrian Orthodox Church in Kerala, namely Kurien Kaniamparambil.

Finding it all a bit Greek? Never mind, just raise a glass of milk to it.

Friday, September 7, 2012

Huge step by European Central Bank to abate crisis; China boosts economy with big infra plan; An ad agency crowdsources employee morale; Kaushik Basu on World Bank goals


1 Huge step by European Central Bank to abate crisis (The New York Times) The European Central Bank on Thursday took its most ambitious step yet toward easing the euro zone crisis, throwing its unlimited financial clout behind an effort to protect Spain and Italy from financial collapse. Mario Draghi, the president of the central bank, won nearly unanimous support from the bank’s board to buy vast amounts of government bonds, a move that would relieve investor pressure on troubled countries but also effectively spread responsibility for repaying national debts to the euro zone countries as a group.

The decision propels political leaders farther down the uncertain and winding road toward a Europe with centralized control over government spending and economic policy, instead of a collection of nation states that sometimes seem to share little more than a currency and a slumping regional economy. Mr. Draghi demonstrated once again that he may be Europe’s most powerful leader, perhaps the only one capable of brokering an accord among politicians whose national concerns and mistrust of one another have allowed the crisis to boil for two and a half years.

But there is a risk once again that monetary policy is moving faster than political leaders are able to create the institutions, such as a European bank supervisor, needed to ensure the survival of the common currency. The bond-buying plan immediately reduced the financial pressure that had been building on Spain and Italy, even though those countries have not sought protection. The effective interest rate on Spanish 10-year bonds fell below 6% for the first time since May, and the corresponding Italian bond fell below 5% for the first time since April. American and European stock indexes also rose.

2 China boosts economy with big infra plan (The Guardian) China has announced a trillion yuan (£99bn) of infrastructure projects in a bid to revive economic growth, raising hopes that the world's second largest economy will drive a recovery across the globe. Over the past two days, Beijing has announced plans to build highways, waterways, urban rail projects and waste water treatment plants, estimated to cost more than 1tn yuan, some 2% of China's total economy.

The Chinese government did not describe the investments as a stimulus package, but analysts said the approvals signalled a shift in policy. Zhang Zhiwei, economist at Nomura, said: "Apart from the large sizes of the projects, the announcements were all made in two days, which is very intense. It signals a change in policy stance, which is now much more proactive."
He said the projects are likely to begin in the coming months and the impact could be reflected in fourth quarter GDP. Chinese growth slowed to 7.6% in the second quarter, its lowest in three years, and grim economic data out in the past few weeks suggests the slowdown could be even steeper in the third quarter.
3 An ad agency crowdsources employee morale (The New York Times) An advertising agency that has been crowdsourcing ideas from its employees is at it again, adopting additional suggestions from staff members on how to improve operations and, by extension, morale. The senior managers of Kirshenbaum Bond Senecal & Partners, part of MDC Partners, have chosen two ideas from around 30 that were submitted in a crowdsourcing competition in July by more than 70 employees.
One of the ideas involves turning over to employees about 4,500 square feet of space on the sixth floor of the agency’s New York headquarters, which they can use, individually and in groups, for personal, creative projects. The space will also be opened to artists and other people who are not on the Kirshenbaum Bond Senecal payroll for exhibits, discussions and potential collaborative work sessions with staff members.
The idea, which won a $5,000 grand prize for two young employees, is called the Hyde Experiment, implying that the agency’s Mr. Hydes will work on their projects when not busy with their Dr. Jekyll regular jobs.
The second idea, which won a $500 runner-up prize for seven employees, is called Gettin’ Up, after a slang term to denote success or recognition. It involves creating a gamelike rewards system in which staff members — and, later, the agency’s clients — will be able to acknowledge employees who go the extra mile. The rewards will come in the form of points that can be exchanged for small cash bonuses. Such efforts to solicit ideas from employees beyond the standard suggestion boxes are indicative of attempts by Madison Avenue leaders to pay more attention to their work forces.
4 Kaushik Basu on World Bank goals (The Wall Street Journal) The World Bank’s new chief economist, Kaushik Basu, said reaching out to people who live in extreme poverty is a top priority for him in his new role. “People who live in chronic deprivation rarely command our attention. Yet, to reach out to them is the urgent problem of our times. Success on this requires passion, but also and in equal measure, analysis and research. I will try my best to act on both fronts,” said Mr. Basu in an email.
Mr. Basu was named as the World Bank’s top economist earlier this week. He has spent the past three years in New Delhi as the Indian government’s chief economic adviser. In an interview Mr. Basu, who made his name in academia, said his time working in policy in India was an experience that will be valuable for him in Washington.

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

South Korea growth misses estimates; India's chronic hypochondria; Specter of apartheid in South Africa; 'Bitter' truth about chocolates


1 South Korea growth misses estimates (BBC) South Korea's economy grew at a slower pace than previously estimated, hurt by a fall in capital investment and a slowdown in exports. Growth was 2.3% between April and June, compared with a year earlier. That is slightly lower than the central bank's earlier estimate of 2.4%. The weak data may prompt policymakers to boost stimulus measures. 

"The possibility that the simultaneous weakness in exports and domestic demand will continue in the third quarter is leading to expectations for a rate cut next week," said Lee Sang-jae, an economist at Hyundai Securities. South Korea's growth in recent years has been powered by the success of its exports sector, which accounts for nearly half of its total economic output. However, slowing growth in key markets such as the US and the eurozone has hurt demand for South Korean goods, underming the country's economic growth. Exports fell 1.4% in the second quarter from the previous three months, according to data released by the Bank of Korea.

2 India’s chronic hypochondria (Jawed Naqvi in Dawn) A handful of political analysts in India betray symptoms of hypochondria in their unending obsession with the China bogey. China is encircling India, goes the media chorus. It wouldn’t occur to any among the pundits to admit that China’s encirclement of India — on for decades, and in tandem with the US for many years — could only become possible because India has failed to win the trust of its own neighbours, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan among them, something the Chinese handle with obvious finesse.

In Sri Lanka, for example, India lacked the diplomatic wherewithal to address Sinhalese concerns and Tamil fears equitably and played both sides of the street. So, should we endorse China’s bonhomie with Colombo as a role model? Not before censuring Beijing’s arms supplies to Colombo for the mass murder of Tamils though that still leaves India without an explanation for its own faltering ties with Sri Lanka.

Again, a landlocked Nepal suffered a crippling economic blockade imposed by India. Was there a valid reason for the former Hindu kingdom not to look to China for help? Why is Bangladesh close to Beijing when Delhi claims to have helped its creation? Should the Chinese be given credit for India’s failure to strike up a sure-footed relationship with Dhaka?

Ties with Pakistan is a more complex story but there is nothing to suggest that the Gujral doctrine which put premium on improved ties with Pakistan and other neighbours could not be replicated by his successors. For reasons not entirely transparent, the Americans now see India as the ‘lynchpin’ in their Asia strategy. True to recent tradition, leading Indians are looking forward to being thus loved by the most powerful nation on earth, forgetting the kiss of death it once brought to Pakistan.

3 Specter of apartheid in South Africa (Johannesburg Times) Governments might topple and leaders might go, but laws and institutions are notoriously resilient. And perhaps, nothing better corroborates this assertion than the current crisis brewing in South Africa. The most unfortunate incident was when the police opened fire on a group of workers from the Marikana mine, northwest of Johannesburg, killing 34 people.

But more shocking than these killings was the reaction of the authorities in the aftermath. The National Prosecution Authority (NPA) used the infamous “common purpose” doctrine — institutionalised by the previous apartheid regime to curb disturbances in the public sphere — to convict the 270 protesting miners of murder. Not only was the charge thoroughly unfair and illogical, it also revealed the double standards of the authorities. During the apartheid rule, the African National Congress (ANC) was against the very doctrine that it used to crush the dissenting labourers.

The ANC has built its credibility as a party representing the majority, but its use of the notorious “common purpose” law to detain miners shows that the party has reneged on its promises and ideals. It has become clear that the government, too, will ironically resort to the oppressive tactics of the previous racist regime to crush dissent.

4 ‘Bitter’ truth about chocolates (Khaleej Times) There are two words that best describe chocolate: sinfully scrumptious. And while its good old plain version is enough to send most on a sugar binge, the incredible variety of its flavours, textures and combinations are sure to tempt even those who rarely experience a sweet tooth.

But before you gorge on a generous slab of chocolate to supposedly take advantage of its health benefits (but mostly enjoy its wonderful taste), here are a few facts for you. It’s true that chocolate can be healthy, but it’s the dark variety — bitter in taste and low in sugar — that you need to go for if you are the health conscious type. Regular milk chocolate is loaded with refined white sugar, which is stored in the body as fat and is also highly carcinogenic. 

Moreover, studies that highlight the benefits of chocolate, produce uncertain results. Probability is actually the key factor in most of this research— chocolate ‘may’ cause weight loss, it ‘may’ reduce the incidence of coronary disease. So don’t delude yourself into believing that a leaner figure or a healthy heart is just a chocolate chip cookie away. Besides, the spate of research on the wonderful health benefits of chocolate sounds a tad dubious. So this is the ‘bitter’ truth: The way to health is certainly not as delectable as studies on chocolate make it sound.

India PM in Washington Post's eyes; ILO sees youth unemployment rising; Australia growth slows


1 India PM in Washington Post’s eyes (Simon Denyer in The Washington Post)  India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh helped set his country on the path to modernity, prosperity and power, but critics say the shy, soft-spoken 79-year-old is in danger of going down in history as a failure. The architect of India’s economic reforms, Singh was a major force behind his country’s rapprochement with the US and is a respected figure on the world stage. But the image of the scrupulously honorable, humble and intellectual technocrat has slowly given way to a completely different one: a dithering, ineffectual bureaucrat presiding over a deeply corrupt government.

The story of Singh’s dramatic fall from grace in his second term in office and the slow but steady tarnishing of his reputation have played out in parallel with his country’s decline on his watch. As India’s economy has slowed and as its reputation for rampant corruption has reasserted itself, the idea that the country was on an inexorable road to becoming a global power has increasingly come into question. “More and more, he has become a tragic figure in our history,” said political historian Ramachandra Guha, describing a man fatally handicapped by his “timidity, complacency and intellectual dishonesty.”

Singh finally did open his mouth last week, to rebut criticism from the government auditor that the national treasury had been cheated of billions of dollars after coal-mining concessions were granted to private companies for a pittance — including during a five-year period when Singh doubled as coal minister. “It has been my general practice not to respond to motivated criticism directed personally at me,” he said. “My general attitude has been, ‘My silence is better than a thousand answers; it keeps intact the honor of innumerable questions.’ ”

“I’m a small person put in this big chair,” Singh told broadcaster Charlie Rose in 2006. “I have to do my duty, whatever task is allotted of me.” From the start, it was clear that the ruling United Progressive Alliance chairperson Sonia Gandhi held the real reins of power. The Gandhi family has ruled India for most of its post-independence history and enjoys an almost cult-like status within the Congress party. Sonia’s word was destined to remain law.

“His gut instincts are very good, but sometimes he suffers from doubts about the political feasibility, about getting things done,” said Jagdish N. Bhagwati, a Columbia University professor who has been friends with Singh since their Cambridge days. Singh will go down in history as India’s first Sikh prime minister and the country’s third-longest-serving premier, but also as someone who did not know when to retire, Guha said.

“He is obviously tired, listless, without energy,” he said. “At his time of life, it is not as though he is going to get a new burst of energy. Things are horribly out of control and can only get worse for him, for his party and for his government.”

(Asian Age reports that Information and Broadcasting Minister Ambika Soni termed as unfortunate the Washington Post report that has described Manmohan Singh as a silent Prime Minister, saying the government will seek an apology from the editor and publisher of the US daily.)

2  ILO sees youth unemployment rising (Khaleej Times) Global unemployment among young people is likely to rise over the next five years, according to a new report from the International Labour Organization (ILO). The ILO said jobless rates among people under 25 worldwide are expected to inch up to 12.9% by 2017, up by 0.2% points from forecasts for this year, but youth in developing countries will be worst affected.

 The highest youth unemployment ILO predicted for the Middle East region, where the jobless rate among young people would jump from 26.4% currently to 28.4% in 2017. In the Southeast Asia and Pacific region, ILO forecast the rate to rise from 13.1 to 14.2% over the next five years

3 Australia growth slows (BBC) Australia's economic growth rate slowed in the second quarter amid a drop global demand for its resources and lacklustre domestic consumption. Growth was 3.7% in the April to June period, from a year earlier. That is down from 4.3% annual growth in the same period last year.

There are fears that Australia's growth may slow further as demand for its resources slows. "We are moving into a fairly risky phase of the Australian economy with the mining sector looking a bit ragged," said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital Investors. Australia's mining sector has been one of the biggest drivers of its growth in recent years.

Slowing growth in key markets such as China and India has hurt demand for Australia's resources and impacted the sector's growth. To make matters worse, prices of commodities such as iron ore have also fallen in recent months, hurting mine companies' profits. That has forced some companies to put their expansion plans on hold, hurting investment in the economy.