Fears over US QE3 hit global sentiment; Six things wrong with Italy; Stanford University raises $1.2b; Fall of the blade runner

1 Fears over US QE3 hit global sentiment (Juliette Garside in The Guardian) Fears that the US will hit the brakes on its QE3 stimulus measures have cast a pall over global markets, threatening the new year rally that took many share indices to four-year highs.

Leading stocks in London, which have been enjoying their best prices since October 2007, were pushed 1.62% lower, with the FTSE 100 closing nearly 104 points down at 6292. Having touched its highest level since September 2008 on Wednesday, Tokyo dropped 1.4%. Wall Street exchanges opened lower and continued to fall, extending the previous session's steep declines, which pushed the Standard & Poor index of 500 leading companies to its biggest slump in three months.

The current round of asset buying, aimed at keeping long-term interest rates low in order to stimulate borrowing, was launched in September with a promise that it would be sustained until the labour market improved substantially. With the Fed spending $85bn a month buying securities, and its balance sheet now at $3.078tn, many officials are concerned about the costs and there are signs the open-ended purchasing programme could be curtailed.  

2 Six things wrong with Italy (Lizzy Davies in The Guardian) The Economy: The country is now in its longest recession in 20 years, the economy having contracted for the last six consecutive quarters and languished in more than a decade of almost non-existent growth. Unemployment is at more than 11%; for under-25s, it is more than 36%. Italy has the second highest ratio of sovereign debt to GDP in the EU.

Treatment of women: Two years after hundreds of thousands of Italian women took to the streets to protest against Berlusconi's bunga bunga politics, they still have a fight on their hands. Held back by ingrained cultural attitudes, inadequate public services and political under-representation, they may have better educational qualifications than their male counterparts but they are significantly less likely to be in paid work. The justice system: Slow-moving, hugely bloated and sometimes alarmingly politicised, Italy's justice system needs fixing. 

Crime, corruption: If there is one industry in Italy that has not suffered from the economic crisis, it is organised crime. It is a sector that booms year in, year out. With three significant mafia organisations – the 'Ndrangheta, the Camorra and the Sicilian mafia – the country remains a hub of organised illicit activity, even if the nature of that activity is changing with the times. Long gone are the days when the scourge was confined to the south; mafiosi now operate throughout the country and beyond. 

Politics: Italy has had more national elections and more governments than any other big European power since the second world war. Only one government has lasted the full five-year term since 1945. In this election, the number of different possible outcomes and permutations is daunting even for the most dedicated student of Italian politics. Apathy and disenchantment are rife. North-south divide: In 1861, the year of Italy's birth, unification pioneer Massimo d'Azeglio declared: "We have made Italy; now we must make Italians." To what extent this task been accomplished remains, more than 150 years later, unclear. The disparity between wealthy north and poorer south is one of the country's most impervious and worrying problems.

3 Stanford University raises $1.2b (Straits Times) Stanford University has set a new record for college fund-raising, becoming the first school to collect more than US$1 billion in a single year, according to a report released on Wednesday. For the eighth straight year, Stanford ranked first in the Council for Aid to Education's annual college fund-raising survey, which shows that elite institutions continue to grab a disproportionate share of donor dollars.

In the 2012 fiscal year, roughly 3,500 US colleges and universities raised US$31 billion, 2.3% more than the previous year. The record was set in 2008 when schools took in US$31.6 billion before fund-raising dropped during the height of the financial crisis.

Topping the list was Stanford at US$1.035 billion, followed by Harvard University at US$650 million, Yale University at US$544 million, the University of Southern California at US$492 million and Columbia University at US$490 million. The top 10 fund-raising colleges collected US$5.3 billion, or 17%, of the US$31 billion, even though they represent only 0.3% of the 3,500 accredited, non-profit schools included in the survey.

4 Fall of the blade runner (Khaleej Times) In Oscar Pistorius’ case, acquittal, if it ever comes, will never be synonymous with ‘not guilty’. The reputation of the 26-year-old ‘blade runner’, hitherto exalted as a hero in the world of sports, has already been compromised in the eyes of the public. 

The judicial system is based on circumstantial evidence, and when the latter is even slightly insufficient, objectively allotting blame to any party is a slippery slope. No example better encapsulates this point than the seven-year trial of O.J. Simpson, after which he was acquitted by the criminal court. But later, a civil court found a preponderance of evidence against Simpson and charged him for murder and battery.

But regardless of the verdict of Pistorius’ trial, which can take up to years, he is history as a Paralympian. Another idol from the world of sports has fallen unceremoniously.

Record trade deficit for Japan; The problem with online college; What happened on April 13, 1919

1 Record trade deficit for Japan (BBC) Japan's monthly trade deficit hit a record in January after its recent aggressive monetary policy stance weakened its currency sharply. Exports rose in January, the first jump in eight months, as its goods became more affordable to foreign buyers. However, a weak currency also pushed up its import bill resulting in a monthly trade deficit of 1.6tn yen ($17.1bn), a 10% jump from a year ago. Japan's deficit has also been impacted by an increase in fuel imports.

The world's third-largest economy has seen a rise in fuel imports, as most of Japan's nuclear reactors continue to remain closed. Japan's imports rose 7.3% in January, from a year earlier. One of the biggest jumps was in the import of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which surged more than 28%. Meanwhile, exports rose 6.4%, driven up mainly by shipments of manufactured goods.

Japan's exports, one of the key drivers of its economic growth, have been hurt by a variety of factors. Demand from the eurozone, one of Japan's biggest markets, has been hurt by the region's ongoing debt crisis. A territorial dispute with China has hit sales of Japanese goods to the country, Japan's biggest trading partner, over the past few months.

2 The problem with online college (The New York Times) Student attrition rates — around 90% for some huge online courses — appear to be a problem even in small-scale online courses when compared with traditional face-to-face classes. Also, courses delivered solely online may be fine for highly skilled, highly motivated people, but they are inappropriate for struggling students who make up a significant portion of college enrollment and who need close contact with instructors to succeed.

Online classes are already common in colleges, and, on the whole, the record is not encouraging. According to Columbia University’s Community College Research Center, for example, about seven million students — about a third of all those enrolled in college — are enrolled in what the center describes as traditional online courses. These typically have about 25 students and are run by professors who often have little interaction with students.

Research has shown over and over again that community college students who enroll in online courses are significantly more likely to fail or withdraw than those in traditional classes, which means that they spend hard-earned tuition dollars and get nothing in return. Worse still, low-performing students who may be just barely hanging on in traditional classes tend to fall even further behind in online courses.

A five-year study, issued in 2011, tracked 51,000 students enrolled in Washington State community and technical colleges. It found that those who took higher proportions of online courses were less likely to earn degrees or transfer to four-year colleges. The reasons for such failures are well known. Many students, for example, show up at college (or junior college) unprepared to learn, unable to manage time and having failed to master basics like math and English.

3 What happened on April 13, 1919 (Margherita Stancati in The Wall Street Journal) David Cameron on Wednesday became the first British prime minister to visit the site of the 1919 massacre in Amritsar that is remembered as one of the darkest episodes in colonial history, one that gave momentum to India’s independence movement. In a note written in the visitors’ book at Jallianwala Bagh – a walled garden where the killings took place– Mr. Cameron described it as “a deeply shameful event in British history”. At the time of the mass shooting, ordered by a British general, colonial rulers were grappling with rising unrest from their Indian subjects.

Despite a ban on freedom of assembly, on April 13, 1919, thousands of Sikhs gathered in a walled garden in Amritsar, Jallianwala Bagh, for the religious festival of Vaisakhi. It was an Indian-born British general – Brigadier General Reginald Dyer – who ordered troops to fire on the crowd as punishment. Unable to leave the enclosed area, in a shooting spree that lasted up to 15 minutes some 379 people were killed and thousands injured, according to British government figures. Among them were many women and children.
The killings sparked widespread outrage, and most of Punjab was kept under martial law for several months.

Restrictive policies included Dyer’s infamous “crawling order,” which forced people who wished to go down a road where a British woman had been assaulted to crawl instead of walk. “What it did was discredit British rule, which is why even Churchill distanced himself from it,” historian Ramachandra Guha said. In the aftermath of the massacre, Nobel laureate Rabindranath Tagore, one of India’s most celebrated authors, renounced a knighthood granted to him by the British Crown four years earlier.

The Jallianwala Bagh massacre was only one of many atrocities committed under British rule, argues writer and historian William Dalrymple. It was a “crucial tipping point in the story of the freedom struggle but it was by no means the worst thing the British did in India,” he said in an interview. For Mr. Guha, the massacre, while important, was not as key in advancing India’s independence movement as other events. “The Salt March would be much more important,” says Mr. Guha, a reference to the mass civil disobedience campaign led by Gandhi in 1930 to oppose a tax on salt.

World trade data shows slowdown; Jap economy worse than forecast; Being Greek and a journalist means double trouble

1World trade data shows slowdown (Floyd Norris in The New York Times) World trade slowed last year, as major countries like Japan and Germany shipped exports that were worth less than those in 2011. The US bucked the trend to some extent, but the 4.5% increase in exports was far smaller than the 15.8% jump in 2011.

Of the 12 large industrialized countries only China, with an 8% gain, posted faster growth in exports than the US. Canada reported a small gain, but the others showed declines. In their local currencies, South Korea and India had gains, but they were erased by the decline of those currencies against the dollar. Import totals can provide an indication of economic woes, as declining incomes cause consumers to buy less, including fewer items from abroad. Imports fell in Germany, France and particularly Italy. This week, the European Union reported that the euro zone economy declined in the fourth quarter — the third consecutive fall. Germany’s economy, which had been growing slowly, also shrank.

In the US, imports of goods rose just 3% in 2012. It was the second consecutive year, and the sixth year in the last seven, that exports grew more — or, in 2009, shrank less — than imports. Before that, imports rose faster than exports for eight consecutive years, from 1998 through 2005.

The US runs a trade surplus in services, but the trade deficit in goods widened slightly in 2012 to $727.9 billion. That figure is still well below the deficits from 2004 through 2008, before the credit crisis and recession caused international trade to decline rapidly in 2009. The strong gains many countries experienced in 2010 and 2011 reflected a return to more normal levels.

2 Jap economy worse than forecast (BBC) Japan's economy contracted for the third straight quarter in the three months to end of December, underlining the challenges the new government faces in reviving growth. The economy shrank 0.1% compared with the previous three months. Most analysts had forecast growth of 0.1%. That is equivalent to an annualised dip of 0.4% in gross domestic product.

Japan's growth has been hurt by a drop in exports to key markets as well as subdued domestic consumption. "The biggest reason for the decline in gross domestic product (GDP) is external demand was weak and domestic demand did not recover as quickly as we thought," said Shuji Tonouchi of Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo.

Japan has been fighting deflation, or falling prices, for best part of the past decade. That has hurt domestic demand as consumers tend to put off purchases in the hope of getting a cheaper and better deal later on. Many analysts have said that stoking inflation is key to spurring Japan's domestic consumption. The economy has contracted for three straight quarters, but the third quarter was the worst and fourth quarter data show the pace of decline is slowing”

"The economy has contracted for three straight quarters, but the third quarter was the worst and fourth quarter data show the pace of decline is slowing," said Mr Tonouchi of Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities

3 Being Greek and a journalist means double trouble (Kostas Tsapogas in The New York Times) Like many Greeks caught in the maelstrom of the economic crisis, my wife and I live a day-to-day existence. Since the newspaper where I worked for 23 years (my wife for 17) went out of circulation in December of 2011, we have both been unemployed. Neither of us has received a paycheck in 18 months, as our newspaper stopped paying us five months before it closed. With unemployment for journalists at over 30%, and the official unemployment rate at 26%, our prospects for this year are, shall we say, not terribly favorable.

Our story is typical of many in Greece, though some are much worse off and some have it better. But like an overwhelming number of Greeks who are struggling just to get enough food, to keep their homes warm and to maintain a semblance of normalcy, we are fighting to keep our dignity intact and avoid the depression that is enveloping our country.

We have been lucky in some ways. Our son, like many young people, has left Greece and found work as a software engineer in Scotland, and we are watching as the country loses a generation of highly skilled university graduates. Our parents, though elderly, are healthy and manage to survive on their pension, which has been cut by almost 50% in the last two years. They have offered to share what little they have with us — something common in Greece, where traditional family ties often offset ineffective social welfare programs.

In the past 18 months, we have tried to find work in journalism. With a group of former colleagues, we tried to create a start-up digital newspaper. After months of hard — and unpaid — work, our primary investor pulled out just a few days before we were supposed to go online, unwilling to take the risk in such a fragile economy.

In 2012 last Q, eurozone recession deepened; South Asia's corruption blackhole; In India, kisses are on the rise; Horsemeat and globalisation

1 In last Q, eurozone recession deepened (BBC) The eurozone recession deepened in the final three months of 2012, official figures show. The economy of the 17 nations in the euro shrank by 0.6% in the fourth quarter, which was worse than forecast. It is the sharpest contraction since the beginning of 2009 and marks the first time the region failed to grow in any quarter during a calendar year. It followed news that the economies of Germany, France and Italy had all shrunk by more than expected.

A recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. In the first three months of 2012 the eurozone economy failed to grow, but then in the second quarter of the year it contracted by 0.2% and it shrank by 0.1% in the third quarter. The GDP numbers sent the euro lower. It fell to a three-week low against the US dollar of $1.3320. Carsten Brzeski from ING said: "These are horrible numbers, it's a widespread contraction, which does not match this positive picture of stabilisation and positive contagion."

2 South Asia’s corruption blackhole (Maria Waqar in Khaleej Times) South Asia has recently witnessed a stark rise in anti-corruption superstars in politics. Widespread anti-corruption protests led by iconic activist Anna Hazare in India in 2011 were momentous because for the first time in history, the Indian people pressurised their government to pass a piece of anti-corruption legislation: the Citizen’s Ombudsman Bill.

A similar demand for rooting out corruption has spawned across India’s border. The anti-corruption movement in Pakistan is heralded by cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan. His party Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf has amassed a huge following among the country’s youth, is famous for pledging that he would eliminate corruption in 90 days if he is elected as Pakistan’s prime minister.

Scientifically, it is actually very difficult to calculate how much money is lost due to corrupt practices in a country, because many illicit dealings — ranging from every day bribes given to the traffic police to millions squandered in infrastructure contracts — cannot be tracked and measured. Hence, the term “black hole” often used to describe financial losses due to corruption, is apt because it alludes to immeasurability of the money lost due to illicit dealings.

Since the extent of corruption cannot be determined, it’s definitely overambitious of South Asia’s activist-politicians to have its elimination as the foremost goal on their political agenda. In fact, the goal of eradicating corruption is as much an appeal to populism — and therefore unrealistic — as that of eliminating poverty. So let’s be clear about something: corruption cannot be completely weeded out — not in 9 years, let alone 90 days. However, the incentive for high-level official corruption can be significantly reduced if anti-graft institutions are made truly autonomous and are given full leeway to investigate these cases. 

The anti-corruption activist-politicians in South Asia are probably right when they say that rampant corruption is the root of all the problems in their countries. But the use of public office for private gain is not something that is not a blight that can be exterminated. In fact, it’s an inherent part of the lives of Indians and Pakistanis — from paying off the clerk to get a driving license to silently witnessing colleagues and friends embezzle public funds, they partake in corruption every day. So they should not allow some fiery populist slogans to let our hopes get too high — undoing a well-entrenched norm can take years, even decades.

3 In India, kisses are on the rise (Gardiner Harris in The New York Times) India may be the birthplace of the Kama Sutra, the ancient how-to manual on kissing and sex. But for many years, Indian couples did not widely embrace kissing, at least not in public. Now that is changing. The Mahabharata, an epic poem written 3,000 years ago, is believed to include the first written description of mouth-to-mouth kissing. But anthropological studies done over the past century in India and elsewhere in Asia showed that kissing was far from universal and even seen as improper by many societies, said Elaine Hatfield, a professor of psychology at the University of Hawaii. 

Sanjay Srivastava, a professor of sociology at the Institute of Economic Growth at Delhi University, said: “Until recently, kissing was seen as Western and not an Indian thing to do. That has changed.”  In India, most marriages are still arranged, and the rate of sex before marriage is low, according to a government survey, so passionate kissing among the unmarried has long been discouraged. Many married couples refrained as well, at least in front of other people. But recent studies, backed by interviews with sociologists and psychiatrists in India, suggest that kissing’s popularity has risen considerably.

Chastity is viewed as highly desirable in India, and Indians, as a result, have also tended to view outward expressions of love, be they physical or verbal, with suspicion, said Dr. Roy Abraham Kallivayalil, president of the Indian Psychiatric Society. “I don’t tell my wife that I love her,” Dr. Kallivayalil said. “My father has never in 88 years told me that he loved me. We don’t do that.”

Dr. Avdesh Sharma, a psychiatrist practicing in New Delhi, said that his younger female patients are far more insistent than their mothers were that their emotional needs be met. That often involves kissing, he said. “The terms and timing of intimacy used to be initiated and decided entirely by the man,” Dr. Sharma said. “That is no longer true.” Indeed, while arranged marriages are still the norm in India, a growing share of young couples say that their views play a role in the process. If a young woman does not like the man her parents have picked, many families now offer her a veto.

4 Horsemeat and globalization (Khaleej Times) The widening horsemeat scandal in Europe has actually shown the dangers of globalisation. When commerce is conducted irrespective of borders, a serious problem affecting one country can easily spill over to others. The issue has actually shown the complexity of the meat supply chain, which involves several EU countries — a fact that makes it difficult to find out exactly which country or part of the supply chain is culpable. Upon investigation, the supply chain of the meat led back to traders in Cyprus and the Netherlands and abattoirs in Romania.

The crisis is actually a reminder of global epidemics of deadly influenza that have struck the world in the last decade. With uninhibited movement of people and goods across borders, the world has become increasingly interdependent and hence collectively vulnerable to disease, terrorism, environmental degradation and other crises. It seems like it’s time to revise our concept of security in a rapidly globalising world.  Let’s face it: You are more likely to die after consuming some shoddy imported meat, than get killed in a nuclear war!

UK set for low growth for two years; GE quits TV business; Thomson Reuters shedding 2,500 jobs; Mobile phone sales fall; One Billion Rising and the male insecurity

1 UK set for low growth for two years (Phillip Inman in The Guardian) Britain will suffer low growth and a squeeze on average incomes for at least another two years, the Bank of England warned, signalling that the economy will remain weak until the next election. The Bank's governor, Sir Mervyn King, put the institution on a collision course with the Treasury after he blamed the government for pushing inflation above its 2% target for the fourth consecutive year and warned that growth in the economy would not gain momentum until 2015.

King accused the chancellor, George Osborne, of scoring "an own goal" following steep rises in university tuition fees and hikes in energy bills linked to green subsidies, which pushed up inflation by at least one percentage point. Treasury sources said it was unfair of the governor to blame the government when it had made every effort to limit price rises in key areas, including freezing fuel duty and council tax.

King made his comments as he delivered the bank's quarterly inflation report, which predicted inflation would remain above the central bank's 2% target until at least the end of 2015, peaking at 3.2% in the second half of this year, from 2.7% currently. With wage rises regularly averaging less than 2%, household incomes are likely to remain under pressure. The economy will regain the size it last achieved in 2007 as growth is not expected to get above 1% this year.

2 GE quits TV business (Scott Mayerowitz in San Francisco Chronicle) General Electric is saying goodbye to 30 Rock — the building and the TV business born there. It's another step in GE's efforts to focus on less glamorous — but theoretically more profitable — ventures such as manufacturing medical imaging equipment, airplane engines and electrical generators.

The Fairfield, Conn., company announced that it is selling its 49% stake in NBCUniversal to Comcast Corp., the nation's largest cable TV operator, for $16.7 billion. Comcast had bought a majority stake in the television and movie company in January 2011 and was expected to buy out GE's remaining stake over the next several years. General Electric will use the money to accelerate its share repurchase program to approximately $10 billion in 2013.

GE is giving up its stake in one of America's best-known brands. The sale includes the NBC broadcast network. GE's capital unit will also sell the floors NBCUniversal occupies in the iconic 30 Rockefeller Center building in New York. GE's history with NBC goes back to 1919, when it co-founded the Radio Corporation of America, or RCA. The company pioneered commercial radio broadcasting. In 1926, RCA launched a television arm: the National Broadcasting Company, or NBC. Within two years, it had started the first regularly scheduled US television programming in Schenectady, NY, then the site of GE headquarters.

3 Thomson Reuters shedding 2,500 jobs (The New York Times) News and financial information company Thomson Reuters has said it is cutting 2,500 jobs, or about 4% of its workforce, this year as it tries to reduce costs and turn around its largest division. CEO Jim Smith told analysts that the company is eliminating the positions from its "Financial and Risk" division, which rents out trading terminals to the financial industry. It accounts for just over half of Thomson Reuters' revenue.

"These are not easy decisions, but our cost structure has to meet our customer's requirements," Smith said. Thomson Reuters has about 60,000 employees. The company said it posted a profit of $372 million for the fourth quarter after a large loss in the same period a year earlier, capping what Smith called "a watershed year" in the company's turnaround. 

The New York-based company earned $372 million, or 45 cents per share, in the October to December period. That's up from a loss of $2.6 billion, or $3.11 per share, in the same period a year ago, when it took a $3 billion charge related to the declining value of its financial services business, which accounts for more than half of its revenue. 

4 Mobile phone sales fall (BBC) Global sales of mobile phones fell in 2012 compared with the previous year, according to a report from research company Gartner. It said 1.75 billion handsets had been bought, marking a 1.7% decline. Analysts at the firm suggested "tough economic conditions" had been partly responsible for the drop.

Gartner's data suggests weakening demand for feature phones - lower-end devices with limited functionality - led to the drop. It said that in the final three months of the year, 264.4 million such devices had been sold - 19.3% fewer than over the same period in 2011. Although smartphones had seen a 38.3% year-on-year gain over the fourth quarter, they had still remained in the minority with 207.7 million units sold, the study said.

The firm added that Apple and Samsung had dominated the smartphone market, with a combined 52% share in the October-to-December quarter. "There is no manufacturer that can firmly lay claim to the number three spot," said the company's principal research analyst Anshul Gupta.

5 One billion rising and the male insecurity (Subeida Mustafa in Dawn) Moved by the oft-quoted figure that one woman in three worldwide — that is one billion — is subjected to some form of violence in her lifetime, Eve Ensler has in effect declared enough is enough. It is time for women to rise to proclaim their aversion to violence. Hence the campaign for One Billion Rising (OBR).

These are the women whose problem Ensler wants to bring into the public consciousness. She wants governments to know that “ending violence against women is as important as ending poverty, or AIDS or global warming”. A large number of men consider it to be their “privilege” to exercise control over the female members of their family by using force. To change this mindset public consciousness has to be created. In that respect, local initiatives rooted in our own culture prove to be more effective and are easier to advance.

A new book Sex and World Peace by Valerie Hudson, an American professor, provides some food for thought. According to it, if a country focuses on reducing its rates of violence against girls and women it also lowers its own propensity for engaging in military conflict. The author finds a close relationship between rape, domestic violence and all social issues on one side and the so-called manly national security issues on the other.

As war is a manifestation of a state’s sense of insecurity vis-à-vis the “other” — the enemy — violence against women is the manifestation of a man’s insecurity vis-à-vis the “other”, that is the woman. Basically it is this perception of gender equation that calls for a change.