Thursday, April 28, 2016

Deutsche Bank net profit falls 58%; Billionaire Carl Icahn sells out of Apple; South Africa's big malls, souring economy

1 Deutsche Bank net profit falls 58% (San Francisco Chronicle) Deutsche Bank saw net profit fall 58 percent in the first quarter as turbulent financial markets deterred client activity and the bank pressed ahead with a costly restructuring of its business.

Germany's largest bank made 236 million euros ($268 million) net profit, down from 559 million euros in the same quarter last year. Revenues fell 22 percent, to 8.1 billion euros from 10.4 billion euros. Still, the profit figure beat analyst expectations for a loss of 13 million euros.

The bank is in the midst of a wrenching transition as it tries to meet tougher regulatory requirements, cut costs and settle multiple legal investigations. It is shedding some 35,000 jobs and contractor positions through 2018 by dropping riskier or less profitable businesses, spinning off its Postbank retail bank division, and pulling out of 10 smaller countries. It didn't pay bonuses to top managers for last year and canceled its dividend for 2015 and 2016.

The bank's effort to downsize and get out of some business activities depressed revenue. Co-CEO John Cryan said that "our results reflect these challenging conditions." Deutsche Bank's results were still an improvement on its 6.7 billion euro loss from all of last year, when the bank took write-downs for the fallen value of businesses and paid billions in litigation and restructuring expenses.


2 Billionaire Carl Icahn sells out of Apple (The Guardian) Billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn says he had sold his entire stake in Apple Inc, citing the risk of China’s influence on the stock. Icahn told CNBC that he was “still very cautious” on the US stock market and there would be a “day of reckoning” unless there was some sort of fiscal stimulus.

Icahn had been a huge cheerleader of Apple, acquiring a stake in the company almost three years ago, repeatedly calling the investment a “no brainer.” In an open letter to Apple chief executive Tim Cook in May 2015, Icahn had argued that shares of the iPhone maker were worth $240, about 90% more than they had been trading. At $240 a share, Apple’s market cap would be $1.4tn, Icahn asserted.

But Icahn, who owned 45.8m Apple shares at the end of last year, said China’s economic slowdown and worries about how China could become more prohibitive in doing business triggered his decision to exit his position entirely. “We no longer have a position in Apple,” he said. “Tim Cook did a great job. I called him this morning to tell him that and he was a little sorry, obviously. But I told him it’s a great company.

Asked when he might get back in, Icahn replied: “I don’t think it’s the price point. I think it’s my opinion about what is happening with China. I think the stock is very cheap on a multiple basis. China could be a shadow for it, and we have to look at that.” Icahn suggested that he made roughly $2bn on his shares in the company.

Apple on Tuesday posted its first decline in iPhone sales as well as its first revenue drop in 13 years. The company’s sales fell by more than a quarter in China, its most important market after the US, and it forecast another disappointing quarter for global revenues. Apple shares have now declined more than 10% this week.


3 South Africa’s big malls, souring economy (Johannesburg Times) Thousands of shoppers queued on Thursday at the opening of one of the largest malls in South Africa, set in middle-class suburbia between Johannesburg and Pretoria. The Mall of Africa will house over 300 shops, including global brands. They want to attract the rising number of young consumers in Africa's most developed economy which has thrived on demand for commodities.

But the opening comes as the outlook for the economy worsens with rising interest rates and prices putting a squeeze on spending while demand for exports such as gold and other metals is depressed. Political uncertainty has also unsettled the rand currency, making imports more expensive and investors nervous.

Retail sales have stayed robust, however, comfortably beating expectations in February and retailers at the mall were in an optimistic mood. Shiny malls have sprung up throughout South Africa, creating thousands of jobs. But they come amid a backdrop of rising debt levels.

Nearly half of all credit-active South Africans, or 9.9 million people are over-indebted, according to debt counselling firm Debt Rescue, and the number will swell as interest rates and inflation rise while the economy slows. Retail sales grew by 4.1 percent year-on-year in February, but are expected to slow.

The Treasury expects the economy to grow by 0.9 percent this year, down from 1.3 percent in 2015 and the central bank is expected to raise interest rates further to rein in inflation that has been driven higher by wage hikes, a depreciating rand and surging food prices after the worst drought in decades.


Wednesday, April 27, 2016

US Fed keeps interest rates on hold; Galaxy helps Samsung profit jump 14%; Shopping may turn possible on social media

1 US Fed keeps interest rates on hold (BBC) The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates between 0.25% and 0.5%, the rate it has held since December. The Fed said while conditions have improved, the central bank is still waiting for inflation to reach 2%.

In its statement the Fed said it would "carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal" as it weighed when next to raise rates. In its statement accompanying today's decision, the Fed's Open Market Committee pointed to strengthening in the labour market and improved household spending, as positive signs.

The unemployment rate fell below 5% in January. The central bank appeared to be less focused on global financial risks to the US economy. A slowing economy in China and falling oil prices have weighed on the Fed's past decisions, but appeared to be less important this time around.

The Fed said low oil prices and poor exports early in the year had contributed to weak inflation. Additionally, while the housing sector has continued to strengthen, the Fed said business investment and exports remained "soft". Most economists only expect two rate increases in 2016. The bank's next chance to raise rates will be when it meets in June.


2 Galaxy helps Samsung profit jump 14% (The Guardian) Samsung Electronics, the world’s largest smartphone maker, has recorded better than expected first quarter profits thanks to the successful early release of its new flagship Galaxy handset.

The result will encourage shareholders after a disappointing 2015 that saw Samsung lose more than $8bn in market value, with its smartphone business sandwiched by top-end rivals like Apple’s iPhone and lower-end devices from fast-growing Chinese outfits like Huawei and Xiaomi.

In an effort to defend its smartphone share, Samsung rolled out the latest version of its Galaxy S7 smartphone in March – a month earlier than the previous year and ahead of new launches by its competitors. Net income for the January-March period stood at 5.25 trillion won ($4.56 billion), up 14.1% from 4.63 trillion won in the same quarter last year.

The strong Galaxy S7 performance came in the face of a flattening global smartphone market that saw arch-rival Apple on Tuesday report its first-ever drop in iPhone sales since launching the iconic handset. Apple reported net income of $10.5bn in the fiscal quarter to March 26, down from $13.6bn last year.


3 Shopping may turn possible on social media (San Francisco Chronicle) It's now possible — though neither easy nor particularly convenient — to buy stuff on Facebook via automated messaging "bots." But it's far from clear that people really want to go shopping on the social network.

Last month, Facebook announced that people can use its Messenger chat service to order flowers, keep up with the news and buy shoes or other goods from participating companies. Only a few have signed on so far, but if the feature takes off, we could all be chatting with artificially intelligent bots to reserve plane tickets, book hotel rooms or order salmon teriyaki before long.

Of course, there are still a lot of ifs around these shopbots, starting with the fact that Facebook has been trying, and largely failing, to launch its own e-commerce efforts for years. Facebook also offers the "buy" button, which appears in its ads and aims to let people purchase stuff without leaving the social network. But it's unclear how many people actually use it.

For all Facebook's success at changing the way people interact with one another and expanding their willingness to share personal details in public, it has "struggled with figuring out how to layer on e-commerce," says eMarketer analyst Debra Aho Williamson.

The company isn't exactly hurting in the meantime. It reported earnings of $1.51 billion, almost triple what it pulled in a year earlier. Its revenue jumped 52 percent to $5.38 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $5.26 billion. Its shares rose 9 percent in after-hours trading.

But can shopbots turn Facebook into a mall? If so, it may still take a while, analysts say. Artificial intelligence has made big strides recently, but bots are still in no position to replace thinking humans, says Joshua March, CEO of Conversocial, a customer-service software company. Using a bot for general, complicated customer service with existing technology will only lead to frustrated customers.

Of course, bots will get better over time, and consumers will also get used to them, particularly if companies are careful to make clear when people are chatting with bots and not actual humans. "My general thesis is never betting against technology," March says.


Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Apple's revenue drops, first time in 13 years; Twitter earnings fall, shares plunge; Power crisis forces two-day work week in Venezuela

1 Apple’s revenue drops first time in 13 years (Sam Thielman, Rupert Neate & Alex Hern in The Guardian) Apple shares dropped after the company reported a nearly 13% fall in quarterly sales, the first time revenue at the world’s most valuable publicly traded company has declined in 13 years.

Revenue was predicted by Apple itself to fall between $50bn and $53bn – it came in on the low end of that range, with a final tally of $50.6bn, a 13% drop. Apple said the decline would continue, predicting revenue between $41bn and $43bn for the June quarter.

The company had warned investors to brace for impact. The iPhone accounts for nearly 2/3 of Apple’s revenue and the company sold 16% fewer iPhones than it had during the same period in 2015 and made 18% less money from them. The total tally for the device was $32.9bn from 51.2m phones sold – the year previous Apple brought in $40.3bn from 61.2m phones.

Much of the falloff was attributable to the struggling Chinese economy. The nation’s consumer technology sector is in flux, as is the yuan. Still the second-largest market in the world for Apple products behind the US, the Chinese segment of Apple’s dismal report declined by more than a quarter of its value.

It is the first time Apple’s sales have fallen since 2003. Back then, the iPhone didn’t exist. Apple was still selling Power Mac computers and had sold only 600,000 iPods. It was the year iTunes was launched, which revolutionized the music business. The iPhone came out in 2007, followed by the iPad, and both were constantly updated, sending the company’s sales to ever higher levels.

But Apple does have big projects underway. It’s probably the worst-kept secret in Silicon Valley that the company is working on an electric car, poaching engineers from Tesla and scouting for test locations in California. And it’s also been hiring engineers and filing patents that also suggest it’s working on a virtual reality device of some sort.

In the meantime it is still piling up cash. It now has a cash mountain of $233bn; more than all the foreign currency reserves across the world and more than the Czech Republic, Peru and New Zealand make in gross domestic product (GDP) a year.


2 Twitter earnings drop, shares plunge (BBC) Twitter's latest earnings results have disappointed investors, coming in below expectations as the firm struggles with weak growth in users and advertising. Shares in Twitter plunged 13.6% after the results were out.

Twitter had 310 million monthly users in the first quarter while revenue was $594.5m, which missed analyst expectations. The company has for years struggled to generate profits from its large base of users. Twitter's revenue forecast for the current quarter was given as between $590m and $610m, also short of what investors had been hoping for.

To boost its stagnant user growth, Twitter has over the past months introduced a new user interface and emphasized its live video offerings. Yet with Facebook launching a similar product, Facebook Live, Twitter still has to prove that its turnaround plan will work.


3 Power crisis forces two-day work week in Venezuela (San Francisco Chronicle) Venezuela's public employees will work only on Monday and Tuesday as the country grapples with an electricity crisis. President Nicolas Maduro announced that the government was slashing working hours for at least two weeks in a bid to save energy.

He said the water level behind the nation's largest dam has fallen to near its minimum operating level thanks to a severe drought. Experts say lack of planning and maintenance is also to blame. The country's socialist administration already gave nearly 3 million public workers Fridays off earlier this month, and initiated daily four-hour blackouts around the country.

The government is now extending the Friday holidays to grade school teachers, though it appears employees of public hospitals and state-run supermarkets will still have to work. Venezuelans reacted with disbelief to the news that most public workers would hardly be going into the office.

Workers will be paid for the days they're sent home. Some have been using their Fridays off to wait in lines to buy groceries and other goods. Others have been going home to watch TV and run the air conditioning, leading critics to say the furlough is not an effective energy-saving measure.

Power outages have been a chronic problem in this oil country. Maduro's predecessor President Hugo Chavez promised to solve the problem in 2010, but little has improved.


Sunday, April 24, 2016

Scandal puts pressure on Mitsubishi Motors; Finally, countries agree to cool the earth; India's 18,000 judges and 30 million cases

1 Scandal puts pressure on Mitsubishi (Straits Times) Mitsubishi Motors is unlikely to issue an earnings forecast for the current financial year when it announces annual results this week, due to uncertainty about the financial impact of its misleading fuel economy data, a person close to the company told Reuters.

The Japanese automaker is under investigation by the transport ministry after saying last week that it overstated the fuel economy of four of its mini-vehicle models made for the local market, including ones produced for Nissan Motor.

Mitsubishi is scheduled to announce its financial results for the year ended March on Wednesday. The automaker customarily issues forecasts along with the previous year's earnings. Mitsubishi said the misleading data affected 625,000 vehicles. It has since stopped sales and production of affected models and seen its share price plummet, wiping out around 40 per cent of its market value, or $3.2 billion, in three days.

Separately, the Yomiuri newspaper reported that Mitsubishi did not conduct vehicle test runs in some cases to measure factors such as air resistance that are necessary to calculate fuel efficiency, when it made minor changes to the mini-vehicles that were affected by misleading fuel efficiency data.


2 Finally, countries agree to cool the earth (The Christian Science Monitor/Khaleej Times) The signing of a global treaty last week marks more than just the symbolic launch of new policies on climate change. What's perhaps most significant is the changed mind-set that made the accord possible.

Where some past efforts to address global warming were marked by bickering and the search for grand bargains, the agreement reached four months ago in Paris was about pragmatism and nudges. The attitude seemed to be: Let's stop talking and start acting. That, it turned out, helped make the difference.

A central agreed-on goal is to hold average global temperatures to no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The deal, and the attitude behind it, might build a foundation for additional international steps in the future - steps that many climate experts say will be necessary to put that 2-degree target within reach.

A global median of 54 per cent saw global warming as a "very serious" challenge, according to Pew Research Center polling. Against this backdrop, presidents and prime ministers from around the world have taken a heightened leadership role. So did nongovernment figures such as Pope Francis and philanthropist Bill Gates.

For now, the 170-plus nations signing the agreement at the UN in New York are more than have ever signed a treaty on its first day.


3 India’s 18,000 judges and 30 million cases (The Times of India) Chief Justice of India T S Thakur almost broke down on Sunday as he lamented that the judiciary had been made the scapegoat for the mounting pendency of cases, leading PM Narendra Modi to offer a closed-door meeting with the judiciary to sort out the problem.

"It is not only in the name of a litigant or people languishing in jails but also in the name of development of the country, its progress, that I beseech you to rise to the occasion and realise that it is not enough to criticise. You cannot shift the entire burden on the judiciary," an emotional CJI said at the conference of chief ministers and chief justices, his voice choking.

The CJI said the Law Commission had recommended in 1987 that the judge-population ratio be increased to at least 50 judges per million population. However, three decades later, the ratio remained an abysmal 15 judges per million people in a country which had added 250 million in population since then, he added, looking towards the prime minister.

If in 1987, the Law Commission had recommended the judge strength to be 40,000 (at 50 judges per million population), how do you think the judiciary's present strength of 18,000 can dispose of case pendency of thirty million?" the CJI asked, looking towards Modi.

His outburst caught the Prime Minister's attention. Modi, who was not scheduled to speak at the event, said, "Bbetter late than never. I can understand his pain as a lot of time has lapsed since 1987. Whatever has been the compulsions... We will do better in the future. Let us see how to move forward by reducing the burden of the past."

Citing the enormous pressure on judges in India, right from the lower courts to the Supreme Court, Chief Justice of India said an Indian judge on an average disposed of 2,600 cases every year compared to 81 cases by his/her American counterpart.


Saturday, April 23, 2016

German automakers face huge costs, new probe; Don't blame Panama for the Panama Papers; German beer law marks 500 years

1 German automakers face huge costs, new probe (San Francisco Chronicle) It's been a bad week for German automakers. Volkswagen said that a diesel emissions-cheating scandal would cost it an astounding $18.2 billion just for 2015, while Daimler revealed that US authorities are sniffing around its tailpipes.

Both companies saw a niche with US buyers who wanted performance, gas mileage and clean air. So they marketed their diesels as alternatives to boring hybrids. But there is growing evidence that neither was able to back up the claims without violating pollution standards. Some management experts put the blame partly on ambitious, top-down corporate structures.

VW already has admitted to programming diesel cars so they pass US emissions tests in labs but spew illegal amounts of pollution on real roads. On Thursday, Daimler said the US Justice Department asked the company to investigate irregularities in diesel emissions in its Mercedes brand vehicles.

There also could be some complicity on the part of European governments. Karl Brauer, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book, said governments, as well as Mercedes, VW and other automakers, have known for years that diesels could meet emissions standards in the lab, but not on real roads.
Germany's transport minister said five automakers agreed to recall 630,000 diesel vehicles in Europe following an investigation into emissions levels. The recalls include Mercedes, Opel and Volkswagen and its subsidiaries Audi and Porsche.

Analysts at Warburg Research think the direct cost of fines, recalls and settlements worldwide will reach 28.6 billion euros — and that's excluding any impact on sales and market share. Volkswagen CEO Matthias Mueller said the company remains "fundamentally healthy" and that he is "convinced that Volkswagen has what it takes to overcome its challenges."


2 Don’t blame Panama for the Panama Papers (Isabel Saint Malo de Alvarado in The Guardian) A trove of leaked documents relating to offshore corporations with ties to the rich and famous has shed light on the extent to which the world’s financial and corporate centres are vulnerable to abuse by those seeking to hide their wealth.

The affair has unfairly come to be known as the Panama Papers, even though, as the documents show, tax evasion and financial crimes are global problems to which no nation is immune. The 11.5m documents revealed by the leak show that the majority of corporations formed by Mossack Fonseca, a law firm headquartered in Panama and with affiliates around the world, are in reality incorporated in countries other than Panama.

While we must maintain a presumption of innocence, Panama recognises our role and responsibility to fully investigate and penalise any illegal activities in full accordance with our laws. Such investigations are currently being carried out through the proper institutions in our country, and are aided by the fact that in recent years, particularly the last 20 months under President Juan Carlos Varela, Panama has strengthened its legal mechanisms relating to money laundering.

Panama is setting up an independent commission, co-chaired by the Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, to evaluate our financial system, determine best practices, and recommend measures to strengthen global financial and legal transparency. We expect its findings within the next six months, and will share the results with the international community.

The term “Panama Papers” is more than an unfair misnomer – it reflects a deep misunderstanding of Panama’s financial system. As an international business hub, Panama treats foreign and domestic corporations the same. The notion that Panama is a “tax haven” for international corporations comes from the fact that we only tax income derived from Panama, not from outside.

Many forget that Panama is now a stable democracy after years of being ruled by a dictatorship. Our efforts to transform our country into a global economic hub have resulted in the establishment of the regional headquarters of over 100 transnational corporations.

It is our hope that through Panama’s reform efforts and increased international cooperation, our country will become even more attractive to multinational companies that seek to act as responsible global citizens. Panama’s path to financial transparency is irreversible, but on a global scale the march must be a collective one. Panama stands ready to play our part.


3 German beer law marks 500 years (BBC) This weekend marks 500 years since the Duke of Bavaria introduced the "Reinheitsgebot" or purity law - strict rules controlling what can go into beer. And beer lovers across Germany will be celebrating at events to mark the anniversary of the famous food law.

The decree known as the Reinheitsgebot, issued in Ingolstadt in 1516, had three aims: to protect drinkers from high prices; to ban the use of wheat in beer so more bread could be made; and to stop unscrupulous brewers from adding dubious toxic and even hallucinogenic ingredients as preservatives or flavourings.

They included herbs and spices such as rosemary and caraway, henbane, thorn-apple, wood shavings, roots, soot or even pitch, according to the German Brewers' Association (DBB). Duke Wilhelm IV's beer purity regulation of 1516, which was preceded by earlier rules on beer production, was gradually implemented in other parts of southern Germany.

It eventually became law in the north and thus the whole country in 1906. The DBB claims that the Reinheitsgebot is the oldest currently valid consumer protection law in the world. The original law limited ingredients to just barley, hops and water. The exact role of yeast in alcoholic fermentation was not understood at the time and it was only later that brewers were able to add the micro-organism as a specific ingredient.

The production of wheat beers remained limited in Bavaria for centuries but is now allowed. So the law now states that malted grains, hops, water and yeast may be used - but nothing else. Beers brewed according to the Reinheitsgebot have special status under European Union laws as a protected traditional foodstuff.


Thursday, April 21, 2016

China seizes biggest share of global exports in nearly 50 years; Decriminalise all drugs, say world leaders; India drought hits 330 million

1 China seizes biggest share of global exports in nearly 50 years (Straits Times) Chinese exporters have found a silver lining in weak global demand by seizing market share from their competitors - good news for China but an expansion that is aggravating trade tensions.

At the same time, China's imports from other countries fell sharply - down over 14 per cent in 2015 - leading some economists to suggest China was deploying an "import substitution" strategy that is pushing foreign brands out of its domestic markets.

China's proportion of global exports rose to 13.8 per cent last year from 12.3 per cent in 2014, data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Employment shows, the highest share any country has enjoyed since the US in 1968.

The success belies widespread predictions that rising costs for Chinese labour and a currency that has increased nearly 20 per cent against the US dollar in the last decade would cause China to lose market share to cheaper competitors. Instead, China's manufacturing infrastructure built during the country's industrial rise of recent decades is keeping exports humming and providing the basis for firms to produce higher-value products.

"China cannot be replaced," said Fredrik Guitman, formerly China general manager for a Danish maker of silver products, adding that reliable delivery times were more important than price. "If they say 45 days, it will be 45 days."

Critics say much of China's move up the value chain has been the result of pressure on foreign firms to transfer technology combined with a systematic and sustained campaign of industrial espionage targeting foreign technology.


2 Decriminalise all drugs, say world leaders (Jessica Glenza in The Guardian) A British billionaire, three former presidents and a renowned Aids researcher have called for all drugs to be decriminalized at a press conference that was sharply critical of the United Nations’ latest drug policy agreement, adopted this week.

Leaders of the Global Commission on Drug Policy said the UN’s first special session on drugs in 18 years had failed to improve international narcotics policy, instead choosing to tweak its prohibition-oriented approach to drug regulation. “The process was fatally flawed from the beginning,” said Richard Branson, head of the Virgin Group, adding that it may “already be too late” to save the international drug law system.

This week’s UN general assembly special session, UNgass, clearly displayed the deep divisions between member states over narcotics: while a growing number of countries, including several states in the US, have moved towards decriminalizing or legalizing drugs, others continue to execute people convicted of drug crimes. Three UN conventions prohibit drug use that is not medical or scientific.

The meeting, held in New York City, was billed as a forum to debate drug laws, called for by Mexico, Colombia and Guatemala in 2014. All three countries suffered disproportionate violence from cartels controlling drug supplies to the north. In Mexico alone, the government estimates 164,000 people were the victims of homicide related to cartel violence between 2007 and 2014.

Mexico’s president, Enrique Peña Nieto, has announced plans to legalize marijuana-based medicines and proposed raising the amount of the drug that can be legally carried. Over the past two decades, nations from Portugal to Uruguay have experimented with liberal drug regimes. Uruguay legalized marijuana in 2014; the states of Colorado and Washington legalized marijuana in 2012; and Portugal decriminalized drugs at the beginning of the millennium.


3 India drought hits 300 million (BBC) At least 330 million people are affected by drought in India, the government has told the Supreme Court. Authorities say this number is likely to rise further given that some states with water shortages have not yet submitted status reports.

The drought is taking place as a heat wave extends across much of India with temperatures crossing 40C for days now. An 11-year-old girl died of heatstroke while collecting water from a village pump in the western Maharashtra state. Yogita Desai had spent close to four hours in 42C temperatures gathering water from the pump on Sunday. She began vomiting after returning home and was rushed to hospital, but died.

India is heavily dependent on monsoon rains, which have been poor for two years in a row. The government said that nearly 256 districts across India, home to nearly a quarter of the population were impacted by the drought.

Schools have been shut in the eastern state of Orissa and more than 100 deaths due to heatstroke have been reported from across the country, including from the southern states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh which saw more than 2,000 deaths last summer.

There is growing public concern over the lack of water in many parts of Maharashtra following two successive years of drought and crop failures. The government has asked local municipalities to stop supplying water to swimming pools and, in an unprecedented move, a train carrying half a million litres of drinking water was sent to the area of Latur.

States like Punjab and Haryana in northern India are squabbling over ownership of river waters. Water availability in India's 91 reservoirs is at its lowest in a decade, with stocks at a paltry 29% of their total storage capacity, according to the Central Water Commission. Some 85% of the country's drinking water comes from aquifers, but their levels are falling, according to WaterAid.


Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Japan exports, imports fall; Intel to cut 12,000 jobs; The problem with negative interest rates

1 Japan exports, imports fall (San Francisco Chronicle) Japan's exports fell for a sixth straight month in March, sapped by weak shipments of machinery and chemicals, though a sharper decline in imports helped push the trade surplus to its highest level in more than five years.

Customs data showed exports fell 6.8 percent from a year earlier to 6.46 trillion yen ($59.2 billion) while imports sank 14.9 percent to 5.7 trillion yen ($52.2 billion). "The resulting balance of 754 billion yen ($6.9 billion) was the highest since October 2010.

Imports of coal, oil, food and machinery dropped. The change was exaggerated by a recent 10 percent surge in the yen's value against the US dollar, to about 109 yen. That makes import costs lower in yen terms. Japan also is importing more, lower cost food items from China, while reducing imports of US-produced soybeans, meats and grains.

Slack global demand and the slowdown in China, Japan's second-biggest export market after the US, have dragged on exports, slowing the recovery. The slower growth in China has also hit other Asian markets, hurting Japan's exports to other countries in the region. Recent improvements in the global outlook will likely lift exports in coming months, economists say.


2 Intel to cut 12,000 jobs (BBC) US tech giant Intel is shedding 12,000 jobs as it seeks to cut reliance on the declining personal computer market. The maker of computer chips will take a $1.2bn charge to cover restructuring costs. The job cuts, about 11% of Intel's workforce, will be made over the next 12 months.

Intel said it wants to "accelerate evolution from a PC company to one that powers the cloud and billions of smart, connected computing devices". The world's largest computer chipmaker also lowered its revenue forecast for the year. The California-based company has been focusing on its higher-margin data centre business as it looks to reduce its dependence on the slowing PC market.

Global personal computer shipments fell 11.5% in the first quarter, research firm IDC said. The cuts were "not a surprise," said NPD analyst Stephen Baker. "For everybody who has made their bed in old tech, trying to lie in it is pretty uncomfortable right now."


3 The problem with negative interest rates (Joseph Stiglitz in The Guardian) An underlying problem that has plagued the global economy is lack of global aggregate demand. It should have been apparent that most central banks’ pre-crisis models were badly wrong. They continued to use the old discredited models, perhaps slightly modified. In these models, the interest rate is the key policy tool, to be dialed up and down to ensure good economic performance. If a positive interest rate doesn’t suffice, then a negative interest rate should do the trick.

It hasn’t. In many economies – including Europe and the US – real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates have been negative, sometimes as much as -2%. And yet, as real interest rates have fallen, business investment has stagnated.

Clearly, the idea that large corporations precisely calculate the interest rate at which they are willing to undertake investment is absurd. More realistically, large corporations are sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars – indeed, trillions if aggregated across the advanced economies – because they already have too much capacity. Why build more simply because the interest rate has moved down a little?

The small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) that are willing to borrow couldn’t get access to credit before the ECB went negative, and they can’t now. Simply put, most firms – and especially SMEs – can’t borrow easily at the T-bill rate. They don’t borrow on capital markets. They borrow from banks. And there is a large difference (spread) between the interest rates the banks set and the T-bill rate.

It may come as a shock to non-economists, but banks play no role in the standard economic model that monetary policymakers have used for the last couple of decades. Of course, if there were no banks, there would be no central banks, either.

A decrease in the real interest rate will make little or no difference. Negative interest rates hurt banks’ balance sheets, with the “wealth effect” on banks overwhelming the small increase in incentives to lend. Unless policymakers are careful, lending rates could increase and credit availability decline.

There are three further problems. First, low interest rates encourage firms to invest in more capital-intensive technologies, resulting in demand for labour falling in the longer term, even as unemployment declines in the short term. Second, older people who depend on interest income, hurt further, cut their consumption. Third, the search for yield implies that many investors will shift their portfolios toward riskier assets, exposing the economy to greater financial instability.

What central banks should be doing is focusing on the flow of credit, which means restoring and maintaining local banks’ ability and willingness to lend to SMEs. Instead, throughout the world, central banks have focused on the systemically significant banks, the financial institutions whose excessive risk taking and abusive practices caused the 2008 crisis.

Of course, even in the best of circumstances, monetary policy’s ability to restore a slumping economy to full employment may be limited. But relying on the wrong model prevents central bankers from contributing what they can – and may even make a bad situation worse.


Monday, April 18, 2016

No solution yet for steel glut; Netflix predicts slower growth; Steve Jobs' mentor, Bill Campbell no more

1 No solution yet to oversupply of steel (Jennifer Rankin in The Guardian) The world’s largest steel-producing nations failed to make a breakthrough on the oversupply problem that has thrown the industry into crisis, at a meeting in Brussels.

Ministers from 34 countries, representing 93% of global steel production, attended Monday’s talks, on the day the Chinese state news agency said it was “lame and lazy” to blame China for the problem. UK Steel, the industry lobby group, criticised the failure to take detailed action, as the future of Britain’s largest steelworks, Port Talbot, hangs in the balance.

Overproduction of steel is driving plants around the world out of business and has brought the UK industry to the brink of collapse.  US and European steel producers have accused China of flooding world markets with heavily subsidised steel that makes it impossible for rivals to compete.

But China rejected this argument, saying the US and European Union were “also plagued by overcapacity to differing degrees”. But in a tacit acknowledgement that China is producing too much steel, as economic growth rate falters, Beijing promised in February to cut production by 100m-150m tonnes and lay off half a million steelworkers over the next five years.

Tata Steel and the British government are searching for a buyer for the company’s UK steel assets, but chances of a rescue for the entire business are seen as remote, putting at risk 40,000 jobs connected to the Tata plant.


2 Netflix predicts slower growth (BBC) Netflix shares fell more than 9% in after-hours trading on Wall Street after the video streaming company predicted slower subscriber growth. The company said it expected to add about 500,000 customers in the US and two million internationally during the current trading quarter ending in June.

Analysts had forecast the company to add 586,000 users in the US and 3.5 million globally. In January, Netflix started a global push into 130 additional countries. The company hoped to counter slowing user growth in the US where the market is more developed. Netflix reported having 81.5 million users in the first quarter of 2016.

Netflix posted a profit of $28m for the period between January and March, up from $24m during the same time a year before. On Monday, competitor Amazon announced a new monthly subscription for its video-streaming service.


3 Steve Jobs’ mentor, Bill Campbell no more (San Francisco Chronicle) Bill Campbell, a former Ivy League football coach who became a management guru for Apple co-founder Steve Jobs and other Silicon Valley luminaries, has died. He was 75.

His death Monday was confirmed by Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers, a venture capital firm that often called upon Campbell to help mold entrepreneurs as they tried to manage the rapid growth often triggered by their innovations.

Although he wasn't widely known outside Silicon Valley, Campbell played a pivotal role in shaping the direction of both Apple and Google, two of the world's most powerful companies. After working in marketing and sales at Apple during the 1980s, Campbell joined the company's board in 1997, shortly after Jobs returned as the company's CEO.

At the time, Apple was flirting with bankruptcy. Campbell frequently served as Jobs' sounding board during one of the most resounding corporate turnarounds in US history as Apple first redesigned its Mac computer line and then rolled out the iPod, iPhone and iPad to emerge as the world most valuable company. Campbell ended his 17-year stint on Apple's board in 2014.

While working with Apple, Campbell played a behind-the-scenes role in Google's success, too. Prompted by Kleiner Perkins, Campbell worked with former Google CEO Eric Schmidt and company co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin to help them work out their early differences and eventually forge one of the most successful partnerships in corporate America. Alphabet, Google's corporate parent, is now the world's second most valuable company, ranking only behind Apple.

Campbell's background gave little inkling he would become one of Silicon Valley's most influential figures. Before joining Apple, Campbell spent six seasons as the head coach of Columbia University's football team. He compiled a 12-41-1 record at Columbia, a .231 winning percentage that was more than double that of his three successors.

As a student at Columbia, Campbell was the captain and an offensive guard on the football team that went 6-3 in 1961, including a 6-1 record in the Ivy League that earned the university a share of the conference title with Harvard. It's still the only time that Columbia's football team won the Ivy League.

Even after he left football, Campbell remained known as "Coach" in Silicon Valley. Before becoming a mentor to other companies, Campbell was CEO of software maker Intuit Inc. from 1994 to 1998. He later served as that company's chairman until stepping down earlier this year.


No solution yet for steel glut; Netflix predicts slower growth; Steve Jobs' mentor, Bill Campbell no more

1 No solution yet to oversupply of steel (Jennifer Rankin in The Guardian) The world’s largest steel-producing nations failed to make a breakthrough on the oversupply problem that has thrown the industry into crisis, at a meeting in Brussels.

Ministers from 34 countries, representing 93% of global steel production, attended Monday’s talks, on the day the Chinese state news agency said it was “lame and lazy” to blame China for the problem. UK Steel, the industry lobby group, criticised the failure to take detailed action, as the future of Britain’s largest steelworks, Port Talbot, hangs in the balance.

Overproduction of steel is driving plants around the world out of business and has brought the UK industry to the brink of collapse.  US and European steel producers have accused China of flooding world markets with heavily subsidised steel that makes it impossible for rivals to compete.

But China rejected this argument, saying the US and European Union were “also plagued by overcapacity to differing degrees”. But in a tacit acknowledgement that China is producing too much steel, as economic growth rate falters, Beijing promised in February to cut production by 100m-150m tonnes and lay off half a million steelworkers over the next five years.

Tata Steel and the British government are searching for a buyer for the company’s UK steel assets, but chances of a rescue for the entire business are seen as remote, putting at risk 40,000 jobs connected to the Tata plant.


2 Netflix predicts slower growth (BBC) Netflix shares fell more than 9% in after-hours trading on Wall Street after the video streaming company predicted slower subscriber growth. The company said it expected to add about 500,000 customers in the US and two million internationally during the current trading quarter ending in June.

Analysts had forecast the company to add 586,000 users in the US and 3.5 million globally. In January, Netflix started a global push into 130 additional countries. The company hoped to counter slowing user growth in the US where the market is more developed. Netflix reported having 81.5 million users in the first quarter of 2016.

Netflix posted a profit of $28m for the period between January and March, up from $24m during the same time a year before. On Monday, competitor Amazon announced a new monthly subscription for its video-streaming service.


3 Steve Jobs’ mentor, Bill Campbell no more (San Francisco Chronicle) Bill Campbell, a former Ivy League football coach who became a management guru for Apple co-founder Steve Jobs and other Silicon Valley luminaries, has died. He was 75.

His death Monday was confirmed by Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers, a venture capital firm that often called upon Campbell to help mold entrepreneurs as they tried to manage the rapid growth often triggered by their innovations.

Although he wasn't widely known outside Silicon Valley, Campbell played a pivotal role in shaping the direction of both Apple and Google, two of the world's most powerful companies. After working in marketing and sales at Apple during the 1980s, Campbell joined the company's board in 1997, shortly after Jobs returned as the company's CEO.

At the time, Apple was flirting with bankruptcy. Campbell frequently served as Jobs' sounding board during one of the most resounding corporate turnarounds in US history as Apple first redesigned its Mac computer line and then rolled out the iPod, iPhone and iPad to emerge as the world most valuable company. Campbell ended his 17-year stint on Apple's board in 2014.

While working with Apple, Campbell played a behind-the-scenes role in Google's success, too. Prompted by Kleiner Perkins, Campbell worked with former Google CEO Eric Schmidt and company co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin to help them work out their early differences and eventually forge one of the most successful partnerships in corporate America. Alphabet, Google's corporate parent, is now the world's second most valuable company, ranking only behind Apple.

Campbell's background gave little inkling he would become one of Silicon Valley's most influential figures. Before joining Apple, Campbell spent six seasons as the head coach of Columbia University's football team. He compiled a 12-41-1 record at Columbia, a .231 winning percentage that was more than double that of his three successors.

As a student at Columbia, Campbell was the captain and an offensive guard on the football team that went 6-3 in 1961, including a 6-1 record in the Ivy League that earned the university a share of the conference title with Harvard. It's still the only time that Columbia's football team won the Ivy League.

Even after he left football, Campbell remained known as "Coach" in Silicon Valley. Before becoming a mentor to other companies, Campbell was CEO of software maker Intuit Inc. from 1994 to 1998. He later served as that company's chairman until stepping down earlier this year.