1 Chinese downturn points to crisis spreading East (Eva Sogbanmu & Larry Elliott in The Guardian) At Burberry's flagship Beijing store, a three-floor monument to China’s insatiable appetite for luxury goods, the famous check is everywhere: in three dimensions on the black exterior walls and inside, reproduced on everything from babies' bibs to suitcases.
On a cool spring day, trade is modest but steady, with no hint of the economic malaise that some investors fear is about to grip the world's second largest economy. For the pessimists, problems that have been lurking beneath the surface glitter are starting to appear. Three months ago, the sense was that carefully calibrated policy action by Beijing would ensure strong growth with low inflation. But last week, the fears of a hard landing were back. Put simply, the concern is that China in 2013 is the US in 2007 – about to experience its very own sub-prime crisis.
China's expansion, despite moves towards stronger consumer demand in the past four years, is still reliant on investment and exports. Much of the capital spending has been on inefficient enterprises that are now struggling due to rising wages and competition from other developing nations. So while China's growth rate at 7.7% in the year to March was still strong, it was weaker than the 8% expected. Nor is business in the high-end shopping malls as brisk as it was.
Analyst Albert Edwards of Société Générale said a recent trip to Asia had left him concerned about the vulnerability of the Chinese growth engine, particularly in the light of the fall in the value of the Japanese currency.
"A sliding yen comes at a time when China's balance of payments situation has deteriorated and a pronounced real exchange-rate appreciation has triggered a reversal in investment flows. To me, this closely echoes the situation in the runup to the 1997 Asian currency crisis," Edwards said. After three decades of spectacular growth, China is now pivotal to the global economy. A crash, even a relatively brief one, would send the crisis of the past five years into a dangerous phase.
2 Who cares about what the IMF thinks (Stephanie Flanders on BBC) Let's face it, almost anything can be important politically if a senior politician has talked about it often enough. But that is much less true in economics. For something to matter economically, it usually has to make a concrete difference to, er, the economy.
It is hard to
recall a time in the past 10 years when the International Monetary Fund's
opinion on a G7 country's policies has made any concrete difference to that
country's fortunes at all. Many would say the same was true of the move from a
AAA sovereign credit rating to a AA. If you're a developing or emerging
country, the IMF and the ratings agencies loom very large indeed. They might be
your only chance of getting a loan.
But Britain
doesn't need the IMF's money. Nor does it need the fund's stamp of approval to
borrow at a decent price in international markets. If the US and French
examples are anything to go by, the loss of another top AAA rating - from Fitch
- will not make a big difference to the government's borrowing costs either.
Politics has
always played a big part in what the IMF says publicly about UK fiscal policy -
and that has been particularly true in the past three years. What should matter
most to the rest of us is not how those pronouncements have changed but who is
actually right.
In my current frame of mind, I was intrigued and slightly disturbed to read an article by Rolf Dobelli, the Swiss author, urging readers to stop following the news. He claims to have done so four years ago, and is much better for it. According to him, “news to the mind is what sugar is to the body”. Just as we now recognise that the overconsumption of sugar-rich fast food leads to obesity, so too does an excess of news cause a fall in concentration and creativity.
Physically, constant exposure to news leads to elevated levels of stress, and the inhibition of growth hormones. Other side-effects, according to Dobelli, include aggression, fear and tension. Certainly, living in today’s fast paced world, none of us can afford to cut ourselves off. From weather to traffic reports, we need up-to-date information. And to act as informed, responsible citizens, we need news on a fairly regular basis. However, as in all other things, there is a need for moderation.
There is a growing debate among educationists and sociologists about the impact of the social media and digital games on the ability to analyse, especially among the young. Many fear that while students today are exceptionally well informed, their ability to analyse and build up logical arguments is being impaired. As for me, I’ll try and fight my addiction before my brain turns to mush.
4 The term ‘eve-teasing’ must die (Ranjani Iyer Mohanty in The Wall Street Journal) The Indian media’s continued use of the euphemism “eve-teasing” when covering cases of sexual harassment has to end. “Euphemism” is of Greek origin and refers to the use of good words to prevent bad luck. It’s an agreeable term for a disagreeable act. We use euphemisms for various reasons: to make something more socially acceptable; to sound more upper class; to hide the severity or truth of an event from others and even from ourselves.
If the Indian media makes light of sexual harassment by using a euphemism, Indian popular cinema encourages such behavior. The portrayal of sex in Bollywood has long been euphemistic. The couple kisses behind a tree; intertwined feet indicate sexual intercourse; a rape is denoted by a flock of raucous birds disturbed from their peace and rising into the sky. Worse though is the continued portrayal of the rape victim as fallen, devastated, hopeless and isolated. She has only two choices – either she marries the man who raped her or she commits suicide – both to prevent further shame on her family.
In a paper titled “Intellectual Fashion in India,” Asma Riswan, a professor at People’s Group in Bhopal describes euphemism as “linguistic dishonesty.” In India, what we call “ragging” is actually the bullying of new college students, while those we tenderly call “Widows of Vrindavan” are thousands of elderly women who, after their husbands have died, have been abandoned by their families to beg on the streets of Vrindavan. What we call the “missing girl child” refers to the millions of deaths by feticide, infanticide and murder of girls under the age of six. And then of course there is the “eve-teasing” done by “lumpen elements.”
We have to move away from the euphemism “eve-teasing” to at least the orthophemism “sexual harassment.” Perhaps even more effective may be the dysphemism “Sita-bullying.” This would strike home to many Indians as Sita is the pious wife of the Hindu god Rama and above moral reproach; she is still seen as the exemplary daughter, wife, and mother. Bullying is an unambiguous word. The full term together – “Sita-bullying” – could be useful and necessary in changing our thoughts, conversations, and actions. Our bark needs to be much harsher if it is to have any bite.
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