US & EU in 'biggest trade deal'; G8 summit: High on talk, low on action; Declining demand for husbands; Smartphones, not war, for Japan and China

1 US and EU in ‘biggest trade deal’ (BBC) UK Prime Minister David Cameron has announced plans for what could be "the biggest bilateral trade deal in history" between the EU and the US. He announced the start of formal negotiations on a trade deal worth hundreds of billions of pounds, aimed at boosting exports and driving growth.

Mr Cameron said a successful agreement would have a greater impact than all other world trade deals put together. US President Barack Obama said the first round of negotiations would take place in Washington in July. They aim to conclude by the end of 2014.

Mr Cameron said the deal could be worth £100bn to the EU economy, £80bn to the US and £85bn to the rest of the world. He said the pact could create two million jobs, and lead to more choice and lower prices in shops. "This is a once-in-a-generation prize and we are determined to seize it," said Mr Cameron.

European Commission President, Jose Manuel Barroso, who will lead the negotiations with President Obama, said that integrating the EU and US economies would not be easy but "we will find convincing answers to legitimate concerns". Free trade between the US and the EU has been under discussion for several years, and a US-EU working group was established in 2011 to discuss the prospect of a free trade agreement.

2 G8 summit: High on talk, low on action (Khaleej Times) Every year, at the G-8 summit, the world’s most powerful nations meet and discuss the state of the global economy and other vexing international issues. This year’s summit, which is being held in Northern Island, is no different. But while this high-profile meeting of world leaders is bound to attract a great deal of media attention, one is sceptical of its feasibility in devising concrete solutions. Just like last year, even this year the Syrian conflict and the world economy are priorities on the agenda. But it is doubtful that the summit will lead to pragmatic solutions to both these issues.

Leave Syria aside, even the prospect of finding a viable solution to tackle the global financial meltdown also appears bleak. It’s been nearly six years since the financial crisis has strongly hit the world, causing millions to lose their jobs. But the annual meetings of leaders have failed to overhaul the flagging world economy. So, it seems like even this year’s summit is also going to be all talk and little action.

3 Declining demand for husbands (Nancy Folbre in The New York Times) Once upon a time women seemed more eager than men to marry. Today such generalizations no longer apply. Is it women’s preferences (the demand for husbands) or men’s preferences (the supply of husbands) that are driving the trend toward less marriage? It’s hard to tell, but some gender asymmetries are apparent. For instance, a recent poll of unmarried blacks of prime marrying age found that only 25% of women were seeking a long-term relationship compared with 43% of men.

As a contractual commitment, marriage has a price. It offers both costs and benefits to potential partners. Economic prospects matter: not just the relative earnings of men and women but also their relative contributions of time and energy to domestic work and family care. Women are willing to pay a higher price for marriage than men if they have few alternatives, as when their opportunities for economic independence are restricted. An increase in the supply of women who want to marry drives the price of marriage down for men.

Marriage market dynamics mean that a bride’s bargaining power is partly determined by the number of other choices her groom has (and vice versa). The changing terms of marriage complicate the effects of women’s improved economic position. On the one hand, men should like the prospect of sharing income with a high-earning woman. On the other hand, they may find it difficult to adjust to a new social role.

Some attitudes have recently changed in the US. According to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center, only about 28% of respondents this year agreed that “it was generally better for a marriage if a husband earns more than his wife,” compared with 40% in 1997. The demand for long-term commitments seems to be steadily declining among both women and men. Philip Cohen persuasively asserts that we should stop bemoaning this change and adapt to a world in which fewer adults marry.

As same-sex couples have profoundly demonstrated, the demand for marriage is not based on some natural sexual division of labor, but on the desire to give personal commitments public recognition. Men and women who get this point probably enjoy a distinct advantage in finding a partner, whether or not they are lucky enough to achieve long-run equilibrium with someone they love.

3 Smartphones, not war, for Japan and China (Richard Katz in The Wall Street Journal) What is the most important recent development in the Japan-China confrontation over the barren East China Sea islets called the Senkakus by Japan and the Diaoyu by China? It could be the June 11 announcement by China's Huawei Technologies that it will increase the share of Japanese parts in its smartphones to 70% from 50% to help it challenge Samsung and Apple. This is particularly interesting since many Western intelligence agencies believe that Huawei is closely tied to China's People's Liberation Army.

Huawei's move underscores that the struggle over these islets is not just a dangerous contest between Japan and China, complete with armed vessels in close contact and the risk of an unintended clash. It is also a contest within each country over which force will dominate policy: nationalist passion or economic dependence. Just as Japan depends on China as a market, so China needs Japan for many of the parts embedded in its own exports. Boycotting Japanese products would hamstring the export-fueled growth that underpins Communist Party rule.

Economic interdependence has compelled both Beijing and Tokyo to rein in their nationalistic urges. Japan's dependence on China is well known. For more than a decade, the ups and downs of the Japanese economy have inordinately hinged on the ups and downs of exports. China stands at the center of this export-dependence. From 1995 to 2011, increased shipments to China accounted for 45% of the overall growth in Japanese exports. From July 2012 through April of this year, however, Japan's price-adjusted exports to China fell by 11%, compared to a 5% drop in its global exports.

What is less well known, even by many Chinese, is how much China needs Japan. For years, Japan has been China's single largest source of imports, and around 60-70% of these are the machinery and parts needed to make China's own products. A 2012 International Monetary Fund report calculated that for every percentage point of growth in China's global exports, its imports from Japan rise by 1.2 percentage points. Take away those imports, and China's exports collapse.

World War I cruelly demonstrated that economic self-interest does not always override nationalist fervor. But it does raise the cost of letting emotions dominate. Economic self-interest may be what ultimately tips the balance of forces within each country back toward those willing to put territorial claims back on the shelf.