1 China’s slowdown in the making (Josef Joffe in The Wall Street Journal) The big question of the 20th century has not disappeared in the 21st: Who is on the right side of history? Is it liberal democracy, with power growing from the bottom up, hedged in by free markets, the rule of law, accountability and the separation of powers? Or is it despotic centralism in the way of Stalin and Hitler, the most recent, though far less cruel, variant being the Chinese one: state capitalism plus one-party rule?
Now many in the West are asking: Isn't top-down capitalism, as practiced in the past by the Asian "dragons" (South Korea, Taiwan, Japan) and currently by China, the better road to riches and global muscle than the muddled, self-stultifying ways of liberal democracy? History bids us to be wary. Rapid growth characterized every "economic miracle" in the past. It started with Britain, the US and Germany in the 19th century, and it continued with Japan, Taiwan, Korea and West Germany after World War II. But none of them managed to sustain the wondrous pace of the early decades, and all of them eventually slowed down.
Today's declinists survey the crises of Western capitalism and look at China's 30-year miracle. Then they conclude once more that state supremacy, especially when flanked by markets and profits, can do better than liberal democracy. Power does breed growth initially, but in the longer run, it falters, as the pockmarked history of the 20th century reveals. The supreme leader does well in whipping his people into frenzied industrialization, achieving in years what took the democracies decades or centuries.
And beware the curse of 2015. Despite its rural masses yearning to go urban, China's workforce will start to decline while its legion of graying dependents keeps ballooning—the result of an abysmally low fertility rate, better health and rising life expectancy. As China gets older, America will become younger thanks to its high rates of birth and immigration. At any rate, China's cost advantage is plummeting. Since 2000, average wages have quadrupled.
History does not bode well for authoritarian modernization, whether in the form of "controlled," "guided" or plain state capitalism. Either the system freezes up and then turns upon itself, devouring the seeds of spectacular growth and finally producing stagnation. Or the country follows the Western route, whereby growth first spawned wealth, then a middle class, then democratization cum welfare state and slowing growth. The irony is that both despotism and democracy, though for very different reasons, are incompatible with dazzling growth over the long haul. So far, China has had rising riches without slowdown or revolt—a political miracle without precedent. The strategy is to unleash markets and to fetter politics: "make money, not trouble." Can China continue on this path? History's verdict is not encouraging.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304402104579151511303083436
2 Uppity women threaten Saudi kingdom (Johannesburg Times) About 60 women in cities across Saudi Arabia, the only country that forbids women to drive, defied the law by getting behind the wheel and driving a short distance. Aziza Youssef, the campaigner who organised the protest, said she had received 13 video clips and 50 SMSes from women who said they had joined the protest and driven.
This appears to have been the biggest breach of Saudi Arabia's ban on women driving. "I went to the grocer's near my house," said Alswayan, a 32-year-old economist who lived in the US for seven years and got her international driving licence there. "Of course I was scared but I don't know whether I was more afraid or angry."
Apparently taken aback by the scale of the planned protest, the Interior Ministry earlier pointedly confirmed that anyone taking part in it would be breaking the law. "The laws of the kingdom prohibit activities disturbing the public peace and opening avenues to sedition, which only serve the senseless, the ill-intentioned, intruders, and opportunity hunters," said the ministry.
Outside one of King Abdullah's palaces this week, 150 clerics staged a noisy protest against female drivers. One prominent cleric claimed last month that driving a car harms the ovaries. In June 2011, about 40 women got behind the wheel and drove in several cities in a protest sparked when a woman was arrested and detained for 24 hours after posting a video of herself driving. One woman was arrested and sentenced to 10 lashes. The punishment was later overturned by King Abdullah. Other women were ordered to sign statements in which they promised never to drive again.
http://www.timeslive.co.za/thetimes/2013/10/28/uppity-women-threaten-kingdom
3 ‘Gig economy’ ranks swell (Andrew S Ross in San Francisco Chronicle) Here's how Giselle Chow makes ends meet in a typical week: as an organizational consultant at events, handwriting place cards for a wedding reception in the East Bay, posting real estate listings on Craigslist, and walking the neighbor's dog. She makes much less than she used to as a teacher and administrator at private schools in San Francisco, and she's fine with that. "Seventeen years was enough," said Chow, 41, who quit her full-time job in the summer. "I greatly enjoyed it but wanted to do something else - and spend more time with my kids."
Chow joined the
ranks of the "gig economy," also known to some as the "labor
force of new entrepreneurs." Its members are referred to as looking for
"part-time bits and pieces to meet the nut," and the "Airbnb
renter-slash musician-slash graphic designer." Unlike others who are
working less than full time, they're doing it by choice.
"A lot of
people are in transition," said Matt Crampton, founder and chief
technology officer of a 3-year-old company. "Some jobs have been
created that never existed before." The Web, smartphones and mobile
apps have spurred the trend. Gigwalk is one of a number of online employment
marketplaces hooking up companies with workers remotely. "This is a real
shift of where the world is working," said oDesk CEO Gary Swart.
"Today, work is no longer a place."
4
Modi’s rise in India (The New York Times) In 2002, rioters in the western
Indian state of Gujarat savagely killed nearly 1,000 people, most of whom were
part of the Muslim minority. Now, barely a decade later, Narendra Modi, a star
of India’s main opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, who was the chief
minister of Gujarat at the time and still holds the office, is a leading
candidate to become prime minister of India.
There is no question that the Congress Party has failed
to capitalize on the economic growth of recent years to invest in
infrastructure, education and public institutions like the judiciary. But Mr.
Modi’s strident Hindu nationalism has fueled public outrage. Mr. Modi has shown
no ability to work with opposition parties or tolerate dissent. His economic
record in Gujarat is not entirely admirable, either. Muslims in Gujarat, for
instance, are much more likely to be poor than Muslims in India as a whole,
even though the state has a lower poverty rate than the country.
India is a country with multiple religions, more than a
dozen major languages and numerous ethnic groups and tribes. Mr. Modi cannot
hope to lead it effectively if he inspires fear and antipathy among many of its
people.
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