1 What won't happen in 2014 (Linda Yueh on BBC) One of the
best economic forecasters once told me, the most accurate forecasters tell you
what is happening today. So, with great trepidation, I set out my 2014
predictions for the annual BBC Correspondents' Look Ahead programme.
2 No 'sorry' in diplomacy (N Janardhan in Khaleej Times) It’s just one word,
made up of just five letters, easy to pronounce, quick to write and takes a
nanosecond to utter. It’s something that all of us use at the drop of a hat;
one that we also yearn for and expect others to offer, with or without little
excuse, and with or without forgiveness. Why then is “sorry” such a difficult
word in the interplay among nations?
The handcuffing, arrest and strip-search of an Indian diplomat accused of visa fraud in the US and the retaliatory measures effected by New Delhi on American consular staff again raises questions about diplomatic complexities. US Secretary of State John Kerry’s “regret” is, for example, a repeat of how Washington dealt with China in the 2001 stand-off after a mid-air collision rendered a Chinese pilot “lost” and an American spy plane with a 24-member crew stranded in Chinese territory. Such incidents make us realise that ‘regret’ and ‘sorry’ are as contrasting as heaven and earth in the politics among nations and in diplomatic parlance.
But there is an intrinsic similarity in the relationship that exists between countries and between individuals. In the struggle for sociological existence and power, what others think about us is as important as what we actually are. It is only in the tribute that others pay to our qualities – goodness, intelligence and power – that we actually become fully aware of them and believe them to be our superior qualities. Thus, it is important to ensure that the mental picture other people form about us in society at least represents the actual situation, if not better.
A country’s foreign policy is always the result of an estimate of the power relations as they exist at a certain moment of history and as they are likely to develop in the immediate and distant future. In this context, the Indo-US row is not just one between two foolhardy egocentrics. As the US’s influence over global affairs declines in comparison to its past, there is now a long list of contenders pitching for a multi-polar world – India being one of them. Its response (partly influenced by populism in election season) reinforces that in the current international relations scenario, the US just cannot have its way.
Like India, many countries are flexing their muscles, seeking recognition as “equal partners” and claiming their pound of flesh. However, in the mind game of realpolitik, the United States is still unwilling to utter a five-letter conciliatory word!
http://khaleejtimes.com/kt-
3 After 75 years, Hollywood Park closes (Straits Times) Hollywood Park, once America's most famous horse racing showplace with legendary moviemakers and film stars among its patrons, closed Sunday after 75 years with a final slate of 11 races. Film industy legends were among 600 shareholders who founded the track to attract the rich and famous, including Bing Crosby, Walt Disney, Al Jolson, Warner brothers studio's Jack Warner, MGM's Sam Goldwyn and noted producers Darryl Zanuck and Mervyn LeRoy.
But as cinematic generations changed, so too did the fortunes of US horse racing, with simulcast betting and more wagers being done through the Internet helping reduce live attendance at tracks.
What
won't happen: Is that growth will go back to normal rates, incomes will rise
strongly, and unemployed youth all find work. The process will be much more
gradual. As the US is the dominant economic engine, growth globally has not
picked up strongly. As such, firms find it hard to raise wages and job creation
remains at a pace that is much slower than what it used to be. For countries
around the world reliant on the US export market, it doesn't help their young
unemployed who are experiencing joblessness in double digits across the world,
particularly in the Middle East and North Africa but also in Europe.
The real
tragedy is if they are "scarred" in terms of employment prospects. A
spell of unemployment can affect lifetime earnings. A gradual recovery with
lingering unemployment could experience what economists call
"hysteresis," which is where the unemployed find their skills become
obsolete and cannot re-enter the workforce.
Hot spot
to watch: China. Will President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang deliver? Or
will the expectations of comprehensive reforms backfire in that any
disappointment becomes a trigger for protests amidst the background of slower
growth? China is almost a perennial choice as a place to watch.
The
co-existence of economic reforms alongside lagging political change has long
been a source of tension, particularly for the millions who have joined the new
middle class and experienced the freedoms of the outside world. The new Chinese
leaders in March will set out for the first time their main legislative agenda.
My final prediction is that the global implications of a crisis in the world's
second largest economy will be another Lehman.
The handcuffing, arrest and strip-search of an Indian diplomat accused of visa fraud in the US and the retaliatory measures effected by New Delhi on American consular staff again raises questions about diplomatic complexities. US Secretary of State John Kerry’s “regret” is, for example, a repeat of how Washington dealt with China in the 2001 stand-off after a mid-air collision rendered a Chinese pilot “lost” and an American spy plane with a 24-member crew stranded in Chinese territory. Such incidents make us realise that ‘regret’ and ‘sorry’ are as contrasting as heaven and earth in the politics among nations and in diplomatic parlance.
But there is an intrinsic similarity in the relationship that exists between countries and between individuals. In the struggle for sociological existence and power, what others think about us is as important as what we actually are. It is only in the tribute that others pay to our qualities – goodness, intelligence and power – that we actually become fully aware of them and believe them to be our superior qualities. Thus, it is important to ensure that the mental picture other people form about us in society at least represents the actual situation, if not better.
A country’s foreign policy is always the result of an estimate of the power relations as they exist at a certain moment of history and as they are likely to develop in the immediate and distant future. In this context, the Indo-US row is not just one between two foolhardy egocentrics. As the US’s influence over global affairs declines in comparison to its past, there is now a long list of contenders pitching for a multi-polar world – India being one of them. Its response (partly influenced by populism in election season) reinforces that in the current international relations scenario, the US just cannot have its way.
Like India, many countries are flexing their muscles, seeking recognition as “equal partners” and claiming their pound of flesh. However, in the mind game of realpolitik, the United States is still unwilling to utter a five-letter conciliatory word!
http://khaleejtimes.com/kt-
3 After 75 years, Hollywood Park closes (Straits Times) Hollywood Park, once America's most famous horse racing showplace with legendary moviemakers and film stars among its patrons, closed Sunday after 75 years with a final slate of 11 races. Film industy legends were among 600 shareholders who founded the track to attract the rich and famous, including Bing Crosby, Walt Disney, Al Jolson, Warner brothers studio's Jack Warner, MGM's Sam Goldwyn and noted producers Darryl Zanuck and Mervyn LeRoy.
But as cinematic generations changed, so too did the fortunes of US horse racing, with simulcast betting and more wagers being done through the Internet helping reduce live attendance at tracks.
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