Tuesday, January 7, 2014

IMF to raise global forecast; Apple 2013 app sales top $10bn; US trade deficit at 4-year low; 'Sharing economy won't solve jobs crisis'; Fewer monsignors in a simpler church



1 IMF to raise global forecast (BBC) The International Monetary Fund will raise its forecast for global growth according to its managing director, Christine Lagarde. She said the revision would come in the next three weeks but did not elaborate, saying that it would be premature to say any more. In October, the IMF lowered its growth forecasts, saying the global economy "remains in low gear". It cut its growth forecast for 2014 by 0.2 of a percentage point to 3.6%. It also reduced the estimate for 2013 growth by 0.3 of a point to 2.9%.

Back then it warned that a slower pace of expansion in emerging economies such as Brazil, China and India, was holding back global expansion. Many economists have been surprised at the strength of the rebound in developed economies, particularly the United States and the UK. Last month the US Commerce department revised US growth upwards to its fastest pace since late 2011. It said GDP grew at an annualised rate of 4.1% between July and September, up from an earlier 3.6% estimate.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25646009

2 Apple 2013 app sales top $10bn (Daisuke Wakabayashi in The Wall Street Journal) As Apple Inc. sells more iPhones and iPads, it also sells more apps. The volume of those sales because clear for the first time when Apple said this week it sold more than $10 billion worth through its App Store last year. After taking its 30% cut, Apple appears to have generated more than $3 billion in revenue from the App Store last year—the vast majority of which likely was profit.

The milestone reflects the virtuous cycle that has emerged from the success of its iPhone and iPad. When an Apple user buys apps or spends money in the App Store, it strengthens that person's ties to Apple's iOS platform and increases the likelihood of that user buying another Apple device in the future. App Store revenue is a small fraction of the $91 billion generated by the iPhone in Apple's fiscal year ended in September. But it is a fast-growing business at a time when Apple's revenue growth overall is slowing.

When Apple introduced the iPhone in 2007, then-CEO Steve Jobs was reluctant to allow outside software developers to write programs for the handset, worried that they would bog down the phone's core functions. The company changed course a year later and opened the App Store, a marketplace that paved the way for a new era of software development.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405270230393310457930626063572030

3 US trade deficit at 4-year low (Khaleej Times) The US trade deficit fell to its lowest level in four years in November as exports hit a record high and weak oil prices restrained import growth, the latest evidence of strengthening economic fundamentals. The Commerce Department said the trade gap fell 12.9 per cent to $34.3 billion. That was the smallest deficit since October 2009. October’s shortfall on the trade balance was revised to $39.3 billion from the previously reported $40.6 billion.

Trade contributed marginally to growth in the third quarter, but abating fiscal headwinds in Europe should lead to a recovery in demand in that region and help boost US exports. The US economy appears positioned to shift into higher growth this year, with data ranging from employment to manufacturing and consumer spending suggesting it ended 2013 on a solid footing. The outlook has been strengthened by a pick-up in domestic demand and diminishing uncertainty over fiscal policy.

Petroleum exports hit a record high in November. Exports to China also were the highest on record. They rose 8.7 per cent in the first 11 months of the year. The trade deficit with China also narrowed in November. There were also increases in US exports to Germany and Japan. Overall imports fell 1.4 per cent to $229.1 billion in November. Part of the decline in imports reflects a lower petroleum import bill, which was the smallest since November 2010. The petroleum deficit was the lowest since May 2009.

http://khaleejtimes.com/biz/inside.asp?section=internationbusiness&xfile=/data/internationbusiness/2014/January/internationbusiness_January34.xml

4 'Sharing economy won't solve jobs crisis' (Moira Herbst in The Guardian) These days, everyone's talking about the so-called sharing economy. Newspaper columnists, pundits and tech reporters are enthusiastically explaining how new rental, resale and sharing services are revolutionizing how we consume, and fostering entrepreneurship, conservation, cost savings and community spirit along the way. The prevailing narrative is that startups like these are the bright spots in an otherwise lackluster economy, and that if we could all learn to be better micro-entrepreneurs, our economy would recover faster.

True, the emergence of innovative ways to share or rent everything from car rides to Wi-Fi access, is making life easier and maybe even more fun for a growing number of users. But we must not get so starry-eyed with excitement about these services that we assume they can collectively save us from our economic woes, especially our most important one: the unemployment and underemployment crisis.

One big problem with claims that the "sharing economy" can lead the way out of our economic morass is that proponents often advocate less consumption. If we all start renting the same person's car, boat or power tool, we'll need fewer people to make and sell cars, boats and power tools. And what happens to the tax base if these transactions are happening under the radar?

There are other labor-related problems with the sharing economy. One is that being a micro-entrepreneur may sound sexy, but it offers no security, health insurance, pension or 401(k), workers' compensation, unemployment insurance, paid vacation, or paid sick days. Makes it all sound a little less glamorous. The reality is that with the economy still more than a million jobs short of pre-recession employment levels, and with labor force participation at a 35-year low, we can't look to clothing re-sales and ride sharing as juggernaut solutions.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/07/sharing-economy-not-solution-to-jobs-crisis

5 Fewer monsignors in a simpler church (Straits Times) Pope Francis, in his latest move to simplify the Roman Catholic Church hierarchy, has severely restricted the number of priests who can receive the honorific title "monsignor". Vatican Radio said a directive had been sent to Catholic bishops around the world outlining the new regulations for diocesan priests.

From now on, the honorific title can only be given to priests who are at least 65 years old, and thus have already given a life of service to the Church. Until now, bishops could ask the Vatican to confer the title on priests over 35 as a distinction from the rest of the general clergy.

http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/world/story/move-simplify-church-pope-limits-monsignor-title-20140108

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