1 Interest rates likely to stay at historic lows (Phillip Inman in The Guardian) A slower-than-expected recovery across the global economy will keep interest rates in rich countries at historic lows for several years, the International Monetary fund has warned in its World Economic Outlook. Interest rates will rise gently over the next couple of years in response to higher GDP growth, but will likely be pegged back by a stuttering performance by Europe and slower growth in China, the Washington-based organisation said.
The gloomy diagnosis will dismay savers, who have seen the value of their savings whittled away by inflation since the financial crisis. Savers are seen as the big losers from the financial crash, which forced central banks to slash rates to almost zero to prevent commercial and residential borrowers from going bust in large numbers. The IMF blamed the Asian savings glut alongside a longstanding demand for safe haven assets and a lack of investment opportunities, especially in the developed world for the persistence of low interest rates across the world.
It said that while the 2008 financial crisis had exacerbated the problem, low interest rates stretched back 30 years and many of the fundamental drivers will remain in place when the crisis is a distant memory. It has been known for many years that the accumulated savings of Asian workers, western pension savers and the oil rich countries in the Middle East have outstripped the capacity of the world economy for investment. Many economists have highlighted how savers cannot find enough productive industries in which to invest and have increasingly come to rely on buying government bonds to supply an income.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/03/imf-slow-economic-recovery-interest-rates-historic-lows
2 Why Apple won't be what it was under Steve Jobs (Richard Feloni in San Francisco Chronicle) Former Wall Street Journal reporter Yukari Iwatani Kane caused quite a stir in the Apple blogging world with her book, " Haunted Empire: Apple After Steve Jobs". It paints a picture of a company settling into a kind of ideological stasis since the death of its revolutionary leader.
Apple under Steve Jobs had an unparalleled run of success. From the iPod to the iPhone to the iPad, Jobs was almost perfect in his product delivery. But nothing lasts forever. At some point a company runs out of ideas, or the competition improves, or its execution comes up short. Apple was going to bump up against the law of averages even with Jobs around. With him gone, it's going to be even harder to continue its excellence.
Kane quotes Harvard Business School professor Gautam Mukunda, who explains that not even Apple is immune to what he calls "business physics." Mukunda's theory is that businesses cannot grow forever, and that at some point they have to plateau. Jobs transformed Apple from a has-been into a giant by introducing the world to brilliantly designed and revolutionary products and marketed them on stage with mesmerizing presentations that only he could deliver. Now, under the leadership of CEO Tim Cook, Mukunda said: "Apple can be an excellent ordinary company or a genuinely extraordinary one. But it can't be both."
Of course, Apple is far from doomed. It has $146 billion in cash. It's not going to suddenly have to shut down operations. But, if it goes sideways like Kane predicts, it will be as good as done. In the technology industry, if you're not making giant moves, you're as good as toast.
http://www.sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/Here-s-Why-Apple-Will-Never-Be-What-It-Was-Under-5374048.php
3 India's female kingmakers (Dawn) The makeup of India’s next government could lie in the hands of a trio of women who command a massive following in their regional heartlands, including a populist former movie star known as “Mother” to supporters. Known more for their charisma than policies, Jayalalithaa Jayaram, Mamata Banerjee and Mayawati are likely to play pivotal roles in coalition negotiations, after India’s marathon general election which begins Monday.
Narendra
Modi is the frontrunner but his party is not expected to win an outright
majority, underlining the growing support for regional parties. It is now three
decades since any party won more than 50 percent of seats in parliament. In
particular, analysts say Jayalalithaa, chief minister of Tamil Nadu state,
could play the role of kingmaker for Modi after telling her supporters it is
time for a change in New Delhi.
If
Jayalalithaa is the queen of the south, Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress
party rule the roost in West Bengal and its capital Kolkata. Her decision to
pull her 18 lawmakers out of the national coalition in 2012 over cuts in fuel
subsidies left the Congress-led government reeling. This time round,
Trinamool’s share of West Bengal’s 42 seats is expected to be nearer 30. Known
as Didi (“Elder Sister”), analysts say it is hard to guess which way Banerjee
will jump after results on May 16.
While Banerjee
is seen as a big sister, Mayawati is known as the “Dalit Queen” or “Behenji”
after a colourful career as champion of India’s lower caste dalits — former
untouchables. Mayawati, whose Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has 21 seats in the
current Lok Sabha, says India will be “ruined” if Modi comes to power. But she
has previously cut a deal with the BJP which enabled her to be chief minister
of Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state.
N.
Sathiya Moorthy, a Chennai-based analyst at the Observer Research Foundation,
said the three women had much in common. “Definitely their image, their
fighting spirit, their charisma, and their administrative skills to a great
extent, have left them in good stead across the board when it comes to voting.”
http://www.dawn.com/news/1097283/amma-didi-behenji-indias-female-kingmakers
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