1 OECD cuts global forecast
(BBC) The global economy will grow by less than expected this year as growth in
developing economies slows, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development predicts. It expects 3.4% world growth this year, down from its
3.6% November forecast. In 2015, however, it still expects growth of 3.9%. It
cut forecasts for China and the US. "We are still not out of the woods
yet," said OECD Secretary General Angel Gurria.
"The underlying picture
continues to be of strengthening growth momentum in the major advanced
economies," the OECD said in its latest economic outlook report. "However,
still-high unemployment in many countries and the subdued pace of growth in
many emerging market economies relative to past norms are likely to limit the
momentum of the recovery," the OECD added. The OECD now forecasts 7.4%
growth in China for this year, down from its 8.2% November forecast.
Meanwhile, the US economy is
forecast to grow 2.6% this year against last November's 2.9% estimate, because
of a combination of bad weather in December and October's government shutdown. However,
it increased its forecast for the euro area, predicting growth of 1.2% against
its November forecast of just 1%. Despite the increase in its growth forecast,
it warned that the European Central Bank needed to take action to protect
itself against the risk of deflation.
It suggested cutting its
main interest rate to zero and said it should also consider bond purchases
similar to those by the Federal Reserve. In the UK, the OECD predicted growth
of 3.2% for this year, up from its November forecast, and said it also expected
unemployment to fall further.
2 India services activity
shrinks again (Anant Vijay Kala in The Wall Street Journal) Services-sector
activity in India shrunk for the 10th successive month in April, according to a
new HSBC index. The seasonally adjusted Service Sector Business Activity Index
rose to 48.5 from 47.5 in March. A figure below 50 indicates contraction and
above expansion. Services contribute about 60% of gross domestic product.
"While the business
activity index improved it remained below the water line," HSBC chief
economist for India Leif Eskesen said. "This points to still subdued
service-sector activity." Orders
received by companies continued to fall because of uncertainty as a result of
continuing national elections, HSBC said. Weaker orders led to job losses
ending a four-month run of creation, it added.
The central bank has
increased interest rates three times since September to tackle inflation. The
manufacturing purchasing managers' index was unchanged from March at 51.3 but
the pace of expansion was tepid and unlikely to inspire confidence about a
recovery, HSBC said.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304831304579545031076782754?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304831304579545031076782754.html
3 Polio spread a world
health emergency (Maria Cheng in San Francisco Chronicle) For the first time
ever, the World Health Organization has declared the spread of polio an
international public health emergency that could grow in the next few months and
unravel the nearly three-decade effort to eradicate the crippling disease. The
agency described current polio outbreaks across at least 10 countries in Asia,
Africa and the Middle East as an "extraordinary event" that required
a coordinated international response.
It identified Pakistan,
Syria and Cameroon as having allowed the virus to spread beyond their borders,
and recommended that those three governments require citizens to obtain a
certificate proving they have been vaccinated for polio before traveling
abroad. "Until it is eradicated, polio will continue to spread
internationally, find and paralyze susceptible kids," Dr. Bruce Aylward,
who leads WHO's polio efforts, said during a press briefing.
Critics, however, questioned
whether the announcement would make much of a difference, given the limits
faced by governments confronting not only polio but armed insurrection and
widespread poverty. "What happens when you continue whipping a horse to go
ever faster, no matter how rapidly he is already running?" said Dr. Donald
A. Henderson, who led the WHO's initiative to get rid of smallpox, the only
human disease ever to have been eradicated.
The WHO has never before
issued an international alert on polio, a disease that usually strikes children
under 5 and is most often spread through infected water. There is no specific
cure, but several vaccines exist. Experts are particularly concerned that polio
is re-emerging in countries previously free of the disease, such as Syria,
Somalia and Iraq, where civil war or unrest now complicates efforts to contain
the virus.
Some critics say it may even
be time to accept that polio may not be eradicated, since the deadline to wipe
out the disease has already been missed several times. The ongoing effort costs
about $1 billion a year. CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden said the reemergence and
spread of polio out of Pakistan, Cameroon and Syria pose "a serious threat
to our ability to eradicate polio."
http://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/UN-Spread-of-polio-now-a-world-health-emergency-5453251.php?cmpid=hp-hc-nationworld
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