Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Argentina heads for default; US economy beats forecast with 4% growth; Smartphone slowdown hits Samsung profit; Billion-dollar bets on India e-commerce

1 Argentina heads for default (Heidi Moore & Angela Mongahan in The Guardian) Argentina is heading for its second debt default in 13 years after negotiations with bondholders broke down in New York. Axel Kicillof, Argentina’s economy minister, said US hedge funds rejected the country’s latest offer. Kicillof has been locked in intense negotiations with holdout creditors demanding to be paid the full value for bonds they own on which Argentina defaulted. The talks have been overseen by a mediator appointed by a US judge who ordered Argentina to pay the creditors.

The court-appointed mediator, Daniel Pollack, confirmed that no agreement had been reached and “the Republic of Argentina will imminently be in default”. Pollack said that default “is not a mere ‘technical’ condition, but rather a real and painful event that will hurt real people,” including Argentine citizens, exchange bondholders and the holdout investors.

The ratings agency, Standard & Poor’s, had earlier declared some Argentine bonds to be in “selective default” because the country did not make a $539m interest payment due on 30 June. Kiciloff denied the country was in default and suggested that Standard & Poor’s was not an “impartial referee.

A fresh default is not expected to affect Argentina’s economy as it did more than a decade ago, when dozens were killed in street protests and the authorities froze savers’ accounts to halt a run on the banks. There will still be consequences, however, as it is expected to worsen an economy already in recession, weaken the currency as more Argentines seek to hold dollars, and put pressure on foreign reserves. It could also raise soybean prices, as the country is the world’s third-largest soybean exporter.


2 US economy beats forecast with 4% growth (Dominic Rushe in The Guardian) The US economy bounced back strongly in the spring, shaking off the effects of an unusually harsh winter, the Commerce Department has said. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy, grew by 4% on an annual basis, better than the average of 3% predicted by economists. In the first three months of the year the economy shrank by 2.1%, the Commerce Department announced, softening its first estimate of a 2.9% fall.

Annual revisions show the economy grew by 4% in the second half of 2013, its fastest pace of growth in a decade. Despite the good news the economic recovery remains the weakest since the second world war. GDP has grown by just 1% in the first six months of the year. The pick up in the economy in late 2013 was wiped out by one of the harshest winters on record and even at 4% the pace of recovery remains sluggish.

The Commerce Department said the increase in GDP in the second quarter reflected growth in consumer spending, private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending and residential fixed investment.


3 Smartphone slow down hits Samsung profit (BBC) Profits at Samsung Electronics fell 20% in the second quarter, hurt mainly by a slowdown in smartphone sales and a strong Korean currency. It made a net profit of 6.25 trillion won ($6.1bn) in the April-to-June period, down from 7.77 trillion won a year ago. When compared to the previous quarter, its profit was down 17%.

Samsung is the world's biggest maker of mobile phones and the handset division accounts for the bulk of its profits. Meanwhile, a stronger Korean currency also hit Samsung's earnings during the period. The Korean won rose more than 11% against the US dollar and nearly 7% against the euro between July 2013 and end of June this year.

Samsung's growth in recent years has been powered mainly by its mobile phone division. However, the pace of growth of the smartphone market has been slowing down and the competition in the sector has also increased. Various other smartphone makers including China's Xiaomi, Huawei and ZTE have been increasing their market share steadily.


4 Billion-dollar bets on India e-commerce (Eric Bellman & Dhanya Ann Thoppil in The Wall Street Journal) In the past two days, Amazon and local rival Flipkart have both made billion-dollar bets that online shopping is poised to take off in India, the world's second-most-populous country. Amazon said that it would invest $2 billion to expand its India operations, a day after Flipkart, India's biggest homegrown e-commerce company, said it had raised $1 billion from backers to help it grow.

"We see huge potential in the Indian economy and for the growth of e-commerce in India," Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said. Potential is the key word. Amazon, Flipkart, eBay-backed Snapdeal.com and others are battling for the early lead in an online market that now amounts to just about $2 billion in sales a year. By 2020, analysts forecast, annual Internet sales could hit $30 billion, but that is still relatively small.

In contrast, last year, China racked up $300 billion in online sales, according to iResearch, while in the US, Internet retail transactions totaled more than $260 billion. Asia is becoming a hotbed of e-commerce investment and experimentation. China's Alibaba, which is preparing a mammoth stock listing in the US, runs the world's busiest online marketplaces.

India remains far behind. About a third of India's 1.2 billion people live below the World Bank's $1.25-a-day threshold for extreme poverty. Many others have neither the disposable income, nor the Internet connection, computer or smartphone they would need to become an online shopper.

Still, the South Asian nation is home to a burgeoning consumer class estimated at 300 million that does have money to spend on electronics, clothes and other products. India poses a host of challenges. Approximately half of Indians don't have bank accounts. The country's creaking infrastructure can make deliveries costly and time-consuming.

A surge in the number of smartphones available for less than $100 has improved the outlook for the industry. Flipkart says it already gets close to half of its orders through its mobile app. The company says it has 22 million registered users and hosts 3,000 merchants selling millions of products, from electronics to clothes and books.

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