Saturday, November 8, 2014

Gorbachev sees new cold war; The idea of Asia; Smartphones 'hurt' intimacy

1 Gorbachev sees new cold war (Philip Ottermann in The Guardian) As Berliners watch 8,000 balloons being released into the night sky this evening, old divisions between east and west will symbolically vanish into thin air with them. Yet the runup to the festivities has already served up plenty of reminders that, 25 years after the fall of the wall that divided the city for three decades, the scars of history are hurting more than ever.

Former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev warned that the world was “on the brink of a new cold war” and strongly criticised the west for having sown the seeds of the current crisis by mishandling the fallout from the collapse of the iron curtain.

“Instead of building new mechanisms and institutions of European security and pursuing a major demilitarisation of European politics … the west, and particularly the US, declared victory in the cold war,” said the man behind the Soviet Union’s glasnost and perestroika reforms. “Euphoria and triumphalism went to the heads of western leaders. Taking advantage of Russia’s weakening and the lack of a counterweight, they claimed monopoly leadership and domination in the world.”

The enlargement of Nato, Kosovo, missile defence plans and wars in the Middle East had led to a “collapse of trust”, said Gorbachev, now 83. “To put it metaphorically, a blister has now turned into a bloody, festering wound.”


2 The idea of Asia (Bilahari Kausikan in Straits Times) Asia is a political and not just a geographic concept; it is politics that defines geography. Asia as a political concept has a history stretching back to at least the late 19th century. I want to focus on the most recent phase in the evolution of the concept of Asia that began in the early 1990s.

By the end of the 1980s, the potential for geopolitical complications was high, arising from a combination of factors: the end of the Cold War; consequent Western/American triumphalism; China just beginning to take off as a serious challenge to the West; both US and China freed from constraints of a de facto anti-Soviet alliance, and an inexperienced US administration - until President Bill Clinton was elected in 1993, Democrats had been out of power for 25 years except for the untypical four years under President Jimmy Carter.

Why were we concerned? US-China relations are the most important axis of East Asian international relations, affecting the entire region. When they are stable, the region is calm; when US-China relations are roiled, the entire region is unsettled.

There is now a consensus across the region that while the US is still a very necessary condition for stability, it is no longer a sufficient condition and the US presence needs to be supplemented - supplemented, not supplanted - by some new architecture to preserve stability for growth. But US-China relations will certainly be the central pillar around which any new architecture will eventually be erected, and when Washington and Beijing reach a new modus vivendi, a new concept of Asia will emerge and we will all have to live with it.

Who is to be regarded as "Asian" is still ambiguous, perhaps deliberately so. No one as yet really can predict the final architecture. Asean is at the centre of this and has been able to establish platforms that could play a supplementary role in channelling US-China relations. The most important decisions are going to be made in Washington and Beijing, not in Asean capitals or even in Tokyo, New Delhi, Seoul or Canberra. Still it is better to play even such a secondary role than just be a helpless spectator.

But rapid change is inevitably internally destabilising and China's history has taught China's leaders to fear most those historical moments where external uncertainty coincides with internal unrest. This is such a period. Beijing is now embarking on a second and more difficult stage of reforms that must loosen the centre's grip on the economy in significant ways, while preserving the rule of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

Can it be done? One should hope so because the alternatives are all probably worse, but no one really knows, least of all China's leaders, although their determination should not be under-estimated. In the realm of practical statecraft, success is the ultimate virtue; and success in statecraft must first of all rest on economic success.


3 Smartphones ‘hurt’ intimacy (Khaleej Times) Heavy smartphone use during midnight hours is destroying intimacy in relationships, leading to break-ups, cheating and divorce, says a study. As the quality of our physical connections gets diluted, people expect less and forget what real romance is, it added.

Researchers from the Oxford University in Britain studied 24,000 married European couples. They found a direct link between use of social networking sites and marital satisfaction. “The more couples read about others’ exciting lives on social media, the more likely they were to view their own with disappointment and disdain,” the authors noted.

In a separate study, researchers from the University of Missouri in the US interviewed hundreds of Facebook users aged between 18 and 82. They found as the use of social media increased with the help of smartphones past midnight, actual intimacy suffered.

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