1 Day after Swiss franc tsunami (Phillip Inman in
The Guardian) Watch makers, ski resorts and currency traders were facing big
losses after the Swiss central bank stunned the financial markets by abandoning
its currency peg against the euro. Swiss manufacturers faced what one business
leader described as a “tsunami” of financial pain as the franc responded to the
shock announcement, jumping by an initial 30% against the euro. Movements of
around 2% are usually considered big in the foreign exchange markets.
The move wiped 9% off the value of the Swiss stock
market – its biggest one-day fall in more than 25 years. One trader described
the market reaction as “complete carnage”. The Swiss action is the latest event
to unsettle markets since the turn of the year and came amid growing concern
about the health of the global economy and warnings from the International
Monetary Fund that the recovery since the recession of 2008-09 remained weak.
Strong signs that the European Central Bank (ECB)
will announce a large-scale programme of quantitative easing (QE) – electronic
money printing – to lift the eurozone out of deflation was seen by currency
traders as the main reason for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) ditching its
three-year campaign to stop the franc damaging Swiss exports by becoming too
strong against the euro.
But with rich Russians looking for a safe haven
during the recent rouble crisis, hot money has also been flowing into
Switzerland in recent weeks, adding to the SNB’s difficulties in holding down
the franc. Manufacturers in Switzerland’s northern belt are likely to feel the
impact first as their exports to Germany and other eurozone countries become far
pricier.
Julien Manceaux, analyst at ING Financial Markets,
said the central bank’s cut in its interest rate to minus 0.75% “ensures the
appetite for the franc as a safe haven will remain limited, avoiding a negative
shock for the Swiss economy”. “This should work at least in the near term.
Whether, this will still be the case after the ECB’s meeting on 22nd January
and a likely QE announcement remains to be seen.”
The tourism industry will be hard hit as the cost of
holidays soars, with a sharp decline expected in bookings to Alpine ski resorts
at a peak time for the industry. Switzerland is seen by investors as a safe
haven by wealthy investors and corporations fearful of destabilising
developments in Russia and the Middle East. Investors have also flocked to
Switzerland to escape ultra-low interest rates in the eurozone.
2 BP sees $50 oil for three years (Robert Peston on
BBC) BP's job announcement including a few hundred job losses in Aberdeen, is
being made because it does not expect the oil price to bounce any time soon. The
oil price has dropped around 60% since June, to $48 a barrel, and I understand
that BP expects that it will stay in the range of $50 to $60 for two to three
years.
The reason BP expects the oil price to stay in the
range of $50 to $60 for some years is for reasons you have read about here - it
is persuaded that the Saudis, Emiratis and Kuwaitis are determined to recapture
market share from US shale gas. This means keeping the volume of oil production
high enough such that the oil price remains low enough to wipe out the
so-called froth from the shale industry - to bankrupt those high-cost frackers
who have borrowed colossal sums to finance their investment.
This does not simply require some US frackers to be
bankrupted and put out of business, but also that enough banks and creditors
are burned such that the supply of finance to the shale industry dries up.
Meanwhile although the US shale industry is in pain,
the lower price will probably reinforce the US economic recovery - and the
White House doesn't massively worry that Russia and Venezuela are in dire
economic straits. If BP is right, most big oil-producing companies will have to
write off the value of older, more expensive oil fields. That is particularly
true of European companies, because of accounting rules here.
What we are seeing is a massive shift in corporate
and economic power, from producers to consumers - with oil-producing countries
as robust as Norway wincing and with a massive manufacturer like China quietly
grateful that its own difficult economic reconstruction is being oiled (as it
were) by the tumbling price of energy.
3 A global warning (Ahmad Bin Shafar in Khaleej
Times) We are living in a world where climate change has evolved from a theory
to a reality. There is solid evidence that links climate change to man-made
activities: a compendium of international scientists working with the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that global warming is being
caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human
activities, specifically the burning of fossil fuels.
Research by the Paris- based think tank, the
International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted that global temperatures will
rise by 3.6 to 5.3 degrees Celsius due to a rising levels of greenhouse gas
emissions. Overcoming climate change is everyone’s problem, regardless of
belief, language, location or nationality.
This is a man-made problem that has a man-made
solutions. Ceasing to use fossil fuels altogether may be a tempting answer, but
alas, it is not the right resolution as oil and gas is woven into the very
fabric of life: from earning valuable revenues for the economies, to running
people’s cars and even providing electricity that powers their homes. The
solution to mitigating global climate change will be energy efficient
technologies.
The IPCC has further stated that the implementation
of energy efficiency, as well as renewable energy, has the potential to be the
biggest contributor to keeping global temperatures rise under 2 degrees
Celsius. With cities accounting for over 70 per cent of global energy use and
up to 50 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, urban energy efficiency
initiatives can keep global temperatures down, while helping to develop a
dynamic green economy.
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