1 EU economy set for ‘modest’ recovery (BBC) The
economic recovery within the European Union and the eurozone should continue at
"a modest pace" next year, the EU has forecast. The economy of the
28-nation EU is set to grow by 1.9% this year, 2.0% in 2016 and by 2.1% the
year after. The 19-nation eurozone is expected to grow by 1.6% this year,
rising to 1.8% next year and 1.9% in 2017.
The EU said growth was being helped by factors such
as low oil prices and a weaker euro exchange rate. Another factor cited was the
European Central Bank's attempts to stimulate the eurozone economy through its
bond-buying programme.
However, the report also warned that new challenges
to growth were appearing, including the slowdown in China and emerging market
economies, and geopolitical tensions.
The EU's executive arm expects three million
migrants to arrive in Europe by 2017 as they flee war and poverty in Syria and
other conflict zones. It predicts the increase in labour supply could boost GDP
growth in the medium term provided the correct policies are in place.
2 FB has a billion daily users and rising mobile ad
sales (Sam Thielman in The Guardian) Facebook now averages 1.1 billion users a
day, according quarterly results announced on Wednesday, which also revealed
the company made more money on mobile advertising alone than the whole business
took in during the same period last year.
When its flagship product hit the billion-user
milestone on 24 August, the company took a victory lap; now that appears to be
slightly below the norm. The tech behemoth’s other platforms are expanding, as
well: founder and chief executive Mark Zuckerberg said Instagram has topped 400
million monthly active users, and that WhatsApp has passed the 900 million mark
“and continues to be on a path to reach a billion users and beyond”.
The mobile ad world is growing by leaps and bounds –
so quickly, in fact, that analytics firm eMarketer predicts that Facebook’s
global market share will actually shrink from 38.4% to 33.7% even as its
revenues increase dramatically.
Facebook attributed 78% of its $4.29bn advertising
revenue to mobile. All revenue across the business amounted to $3.2bn during
the third quarter of 2014; this quarter, mobile ads alone accounted for
$3.35bn. Mobile monthly active users alone were 1.39 billion.
Facebook is also about to expand its news business
into a new app called Notify, which will stand alone from Facebook and allow
users to subscribe to and personalize mobile notifications from participating
publications. The app could launch as early as this week, according to the
Financial Times.
3 India home to most confident consumers (Khaleej
Times) Consumers in India - now the fastest-growing big economy - are the world's
most confident, according to Nielsen. Surging personal wealth is pushing an
unprecedented number of Indians to tour the globe. Indians are also taking on
more credit, helping to bolster spending power as the festival season
approaches.
Higher consumption in a retail sector that accounts
for about half the economy will help Prime Minister Narendra Modi get companies
to invest more and create jobs for a burgeoning population. Spending could rise
further following four interest rate cuts and a scheduled pay hike for state
employees.
The continuing challenge of a global economic
slowdown means it will take time to use up India's manufacturing slack - about
1.5 years until capacity utilisation reaches around 85 per cent, from 71.5 per
cent now. Price competition means it may take time for consumption gains to be
reflected on corporate balance sheets.
Cheaper fuel amid a global commodity slump and
sliding inflation has left more cash in the hands of consumers. As average
household incomes triple to $18,448 over the decade through 2020, India's
retail sales will double from current levels to $1 trillion, the Boston
Consulting Group estimated in a February report.
The number of rich Indians rose a world-beating 26
per cent in 2014, according to a report from Cap Gemini and RBC Wealth Management.
They also borrow a lot - second only compared with their peers in the
Netherlands - and among their baubles are homes in gated communities they can buy
only if invited to.
It's too early to reach a conclusion on whether the
consumption surge will be sustainable, said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist
at L&T Financial Services. Credit going toward durable consumer products
such as TVs and smartphones remain far from their peak levels, she said.
Loan-growth numbers also are flattered by lower levels from last year.
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