1 UK poised for slow growth (BBC) "The business
as usual" approach taken by many firms following the Brexit vote has
helped boost UK growth this year, but it won't last, the British Chambers of
Commerce has warned. The business body expects 2.1% GDP growth this year, up
from the 1.8% it forecast just three months ago.
But uncertainty over the UK's EU relationship and
higher inflation will "dampen medium term growth," it said. It
expects UK GDP to grow 1.1% next year, and 1.4% in 2018. A separate report on
business conditions from accountancy and services group BDO found business
output rose for the first time in November after 17 months of decline.
BCC director general Dr Adam Marshall said firms'
"business as usual" approach since the EU referendum had helped keep
conditions buoyant so far, but it expected the fall in the value of sterling to
start to have a greater impact. The pound has fallen around 15% against the
dollar and 10% against the euro since the EU referendum.
The BCC expects this to push up inflation, and hit
consumer spending as wage growth is eroded by higher prices, as well as
business investment.
2 Saudi Arabia looks to post-oil era (Gulf News) Saudi
Arabia’s Vision 2030 unveiled in April plans to get rid of a business culture
tranquillised by oil wealth and stifled by bureaucracy and replace it with a
competitive economy driven by private enterprise. The shock therapy to embrace
a Saudi
version of western-style capitalism risks coming too late, but on paper
it’s tantamount to a revolution.
The modernisation is Saudi Arabia’s boldest since
the creation of the kingdom in 1932. When Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad Bin
Salman, King Salman Bin Abdul Aziz’s powerful 31-year-old son, announced his
plan to address the plunge in oil revenue, he acknowledged it was “ambitious,”
though he said it was achievable and “there are no excuses for us to stand
still or move backwards.”
Based on a week of interviews with businesspeople
and consultants in Jeddah, one message was clear: things will be done
differently from now on. Companies can no longer depend on government tenders
for the bulk of their business. Out are reliance on foreign workers, cushy jobs
and state largesse; in are metrics and making the numbers add up.
Critics of the blueprint to transform the world’s
largest oil exporter say it still lacks specifics on how to achieve the
targets. For example, it includes bringing more women into the workforce,
without addressing the constraints on them such as being banned from driving.
And while the government is reducing spending to deflate a ballooning budget
deficit, non-oil industries, the main engine of job creation, slipped briefly
into recession.
The Saudi goal is to increase the contribution of
small and medium-sized businesses to 35 per cent of the economy from 20 per
cent and help bring the jobless rate down to 7 per cent from almost 12 per
cent.
It will require weaning companies off more efficient
foreign labour and training up locals who ordinarily would seek jobs with the
state. The government has already raised the cost of visas and residency
permits for non-Saudis, who make up about a third of the 32 million population,
making it more expensive to hire them.
Some business owners are holding workshops for
staff, others are seeking advice from outside consultants. Many are focusing on
revamping or starting HR departments. KPIs — key performance indicators — have
become the new buzzword.
3 Happiness hinges on health and friends, not money
(Phillip Inman in The Guardian) Most human misery can be blamed on failed
relationships and physical and mental illness rather than money problems and
poverty, according to a landmark study by a team of researchers at the London
School of Economics (LSE).
Eliminating depression and anxiety would reduce
misery by 20% compared to just 5% if policymakers focused on eliminating
poverty, the report found. Lord Richard Layard, who led the report, said on
average people have become no happier in the last 50 years, despite average
incomes more than doubling.
The economist said the study, called Origins of
Happiness, showed that measuring people’s satisfaction with their lives should
be a priority for every government. The researchers analysed data from four
countries including the US and Germany.
Extra spending on reducing mental illness would be
self-financing, the researchers added, because it would be recovered by the
government through higher employment and increased tax receipts together with a
reduction in NHS costs from fewer GP visits and hospital A&E admissions. “Tackling
depression and anxiety would be four times as effective as tackling poverty. It
would also pay for itself,” he said.
The report supports the arguments put forward by
Layard over several decades that social and psychological factors are more
important to the wellbeing of individuals than income levels. “Having a partner
is as good for you as being made unemployed is bad for you,” he said.
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