Sunday, November 8, 2015

China imports fall 19% in Oct; Why Bihar state rejected India PM Modi; Privacy seems a 20th century anomaly

1 China imports fall 19% in Oct (BBC) China saw imports drop for the twelfth month in a row in October giving further cause for concern over the Chinese economy. Imports by the world's biggest trader of goods fell 18.8% from a year earlier to $130.8bn, a slight improvement on September's 20.4% decline.

Exports dropped 6.9% to $192.4bn, the fourth consecutive monthly fall, as foreign demand waned. That left China with its highest trade surplus on record at $61.6bn. Chinese authorities have been trying to make the economy more consumer-led and less reliant on exports, but the continuing fall in imports suggests domestic demand is not as strong as Beijing would like.

The ruling Communist party set a target of 6% trade growth at the start of the year, but total trade for the world's second largest economy has now fallen by 8% in the first ten months. Last week Chinese President Xi Jinping signalled that policymakers would accept slower economic growth than the current 7% target. Last month China revealed its economy slipped to 6.9% growth in the third quarter, the weakest rate since the global financial crisis.


2 Why Bihar state rejected India PM Modi (Lata Rani in Gulf News) India’s Bihar state has awarded the performer. And punished negativity and needless aggression. This is the dominant feeling of most political analysts and voters from the state.

The stunning victory of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Grand Alliance is widely viewed as a vote for his good governance, his innately soft nature and the “social engineering” he achieved with friend-turned-foe-turned-ally Lalu Prasad. Joining hands with Lalu Prasad was obviously a risky decision, but Nitish Kumar went ahead calculating that the caste combinations it would bring about would deliver the results. It did.

Many also felt that the personal attacks mounted on the soft-spoken Nitish Kumar by prime minister Narendra Modi and Bharatiya Janata Party president Amit Shah had backfired. Nitish Kumar used all the jibes directed at him to remind voters about Bihari pride — just the way Modi used to do during his tenure as Gujarat chief minister.

Many voters both during the campaign and after the results came out on Sunday made it clear that they did not approve of the language and style of the prime minister. Observers cite three major reasons for the defeat of BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in Bihar.

The first is the observation by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat to review country’s reservation process right in the middle of the poll process. The Grand Secular Alliance went to the masses, extensively raising the matter in every election rally, telling them how the BJP’s ideological head was conspiring to scrap reservation of the socially poor castes.

The second factor was the “negative campaigning” by Modi and his allies. Instead of focusing on his “development agenda” and his plan for the state, the Prime Minister went too aggressive against the rival alliance at every rally. The third factor was Modi’s failure to fulfil the promises he made to the voters during last year’s Lok Sabha poll campaign. One of them was bringing back black money stashed in foreign banks and crediting Rs1.5 million in the bank account of every Indians.


3 Privacy seems a 20th century anomaly (David Shariatmadari in The Guardian) Medieval villagers couldn’t afford to be too proud. In Montaillou, home to some 200 souls, people would often sleep several to a bed. That meant that they were constantly picking up lice. No matter: in 14th-century France, delousing was a just another opportunity to socialise.

A world without privacy still seems alien to us. I say still, because there are growing parallels between the medieval village and its modern, global counterpart. This week, the government published a draft bill to enable it to track citizens’ internet use.

This is not quite the “global village” of Marshall McLuhan’s imagination: “These new media of ours,” he said in 1964, “have made our world into a single unit. The world is now like a continually sounding tribal drum, where everybody gets the message all the time.

In 2015, the villagers answer back to communication. The result is arguably a more censorious environment, one in which your movements and behaviour are more strictly policed, officially and unofficially. And it replaces a period of “privacy” that is beginning to look like a bit of an anomaly.

If privacy had a golden age, it was after moral strictures had loosened, but before the age of mass chronicling and surveillance: the time when cities in the west offered the opportunity to start again, to disappear and re-emerge transformed, stretching perhaps from the 1960s to the end of the century.

Now we live with a different kind of anonymity. If you know someone’s real name, it doesn’t take much to find out where they live, who they like to sleep with and what their sister’s name is. On the other hand, legions of internet users adopt false identities. The freedom this affords them is sometimes the wonderful freedom of the city, to leave old things behind and connect with other like-minded souls. But it’s often the freedom to intimidate or threaten, with no cost to the real self.

The new normal, is where everyone knows your business. But as we tramp back to the village, it’s worth mourning that golden age of privacy, and the city that allowed people to reinvent themselves like the characters in Lou Reed’s Walk on the Wild Side. Life may never be as mysterious again.


Saturday, November 7, 2015

Africa's biggest economy chokes growth; The Uberization of money; Returning an award in India

1 Africa’s biggest economy chokes growth (George Osodi in Washington Post/Gulf News) Nigeria’s economy is growing at the slowest pace this decade as oil prices drop. Companies are complaining they can’t get the dollars they need to do business. And trading in the naira has long since dried up.
There are many good reasons why Godwin Emefiele, who runs the central bank of Africa’s biggest economy, should lift currency controls and let the naira depreciate. One of the things holding him back is politics.

Devaluing the naira may give opposition parties the opportunity to claim that Emefiele’s main supporter, President Muhammadu Buhari, has lost control of the economy. With his backing, the policy chief will be able to resist his critics into 2016 before the worsening economic slump eventually forces him to capitulate, according to Standard Chartered and Bank of America.

Africa’s top oil producer introduced curbs on buying foreign-exchange from late 2014 in a bid to prop up the naira as prices for crude, the source of two-thirds of government revenue and 90 per cent of export earnings, plummeted. These measures have all but fixed the exchange rate at 198-199 per dollar since March, even as other oil exporters from Russia to Colombia and Malaysia have let their currencies slide.

Barclays and HSBC Holdings still think the central bank will be forced to weaken the naira to between 220 and 230 before the end of 2015. The International Monetary Fund says the currency measures are detrimental to Nigeria, where growth slowed to 2.35 per cent on an annualised basis in the second quarter. Former central bank Governor Muhammadu Sanusi II said last week his successor was “in denial” if he thought he could continue propping up the naira.


2 The Uberization of money (Zachary Karabell in The Wall Street Journal) When it comes time to buy a home, you will probably revert to procedures that were created in your grandparents’ era. You will assemble financial documents and present them to a loan officer at a bank, who will take weeks to determine what you can borrow and at what rate and then present you with a narrow menu of costly options.

Imagine instead a simple online interface that could generate a tailored credit score for you. It would connect you to lenders ranging from banks and credit unions to pools of individuals who want to lend privately at a negotiated rate for whatever duration you agree on. You could shop around, combine different types of financing and arrange a mortgage package that best suits you, all within a few hours.

We aren’t quite there yet, but we may be soon. Over the next decade, the familiar 20th-century modes of banking and investing will give way to something very different. We are on the verge of the Uberization of finance, which will bring multiple new opportunities but also a range of new risks.

The ubiquitous ride-sharing company uses a simple device—the smartphone—to connect people who want rides with people who want to drive them. Uber is a high-tech middleman that is making the intermediaries of the past obsolete. The financial world is one of the most mediated industries on the planet, and that is precisely what is about to change. Uberization also means using vast amounts of data to make those connections feasible.

Technology is one source of this shift, but so is legislation. The Jobs Act of 2012 contained a seemingly innocuous provision making it easier for startups to raise money from investors previously deemed too poor to dabble in such ventures. At the end of October, the Securities and Exchange Commission finally approved the rules. As a result, any company or person with an idea can solicit and raise up to $1 million without most of the onerous regulatory and reporting requirements of the past.

Whatever the risks, the Uberization of finance is no fad or stunt. Many of today’s startups may implode, as most do, but the spread and democratization of capital—and the proliferation and analysis of data—are irresistible trends. They will offer new opportunities to millions of people, entrepreneurs and investors alike. They also will unlock a vast amount of money, energy and talent, and to that we simply should say, bring it on.


3 Returning an award in India (Arundhati Roy in The Guardian/The Indian Express) Although I do not believe that awards are a measure of the work we do, I would like to add the National award for Best Screenplay that I won in 1989 to the growing pile of returned awards. Also, I want to make it clear that I am not returning this award because I am “shocked” by what is being called the “growing intolerance” being fostered by the present government.

First of all, “intolerance” is the wrong word to use for the lynching, shooting, burning and mass murder of fellow human beings. Second, we had plenty of advance notice of what lay in store for us — so I cannot claim to be shocked by what has happened after this government was enthusiastically voted into office with an overwhelming majority. Third, these horrific murders are only a symptom of a deeper malaise. Life is hell for the living too. Whole populations — millions of Dalits, Adivasis, Muslims and Christians — are being forced to live in terror, unsure of when and from where the assault will come.

Today, we live in a country in which, when the thugs and apparatchiks of the new order talk of “illegal slaughter”, they mean the imaginary cow that was killed — not the real man who was murdered. When they talk of taking “evidence for forensic examination” from the scene of the crime, they mean the food in the fridge, not the body of the lynched man.

Which writer can write what Saadat Hasan Manto wrote in his Letters to Uncle Sam? It doesn’t matter whether we agree or disagree with what is being said. If we do not have the right to speak freely, we will turn into a society that suffers from intellectual malnutrition, a nation of fools.

I am very pleased to have found (from somewhere way back in my past) a National award that I can return, because it allows me to be a part of a political movement initiated by writers, film-makers and academics in this country who have risen up against a kind of ideological viciousness and an assault on our collective IQ that will tear us apart and bury us very deep if we do not stand up to it now.

Friday, November 6, 2015

US payrolls climb most this year; Toyota invests $1bn in artificial intelligence; Religious children found to be meaner

1 US payrolls climb most this year (Gulf News) US employment in October surged by the most this year, wage growth accelerated and the jobless rate fell to 5 per cent, signs of labour-market durability Federal Reserve policymakers are looking for as they consider a year-end boost in borrowing costs.

The addition of 271,000 jobs exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists and followed a revised 137,000 gain in September, a Labor Department report showed. The median forecast called for a 185,000 advance. Average hourly earnings climbed from a year earlier by the most since July 2009.

In the wake of sluggish job gains the prior two months, October’s advance allays concerns that an abrupt hiring slowdown would hinder the expansion’s progress as economies overseas strive to gain traction. Further improvement in the job market is a precondition for Fed officials, who last month held out the possibility of a December interest-rate increase.

The report also showed diminishing labour-market slack. The number of Americans working part-time because of a weak economy fell to 5.7 million in October, the lowest since June 2008. The unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate Labor Department survey of households, is the lowest since April 2008.

The underemployment rate — which includes part-time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want to work but have given up looking — fell to 9.8 per cent, the lowest since May 2008. The participation rate, which shows the share of working- age people in the labour force, held at 62.4 per cent.


2 Toyota invests $1bn in artificial intelligence (San Francisco Chronicle) Toyota is investing $1 billion in a research company it's setting up in Silicon Valley to develop artificial intelligence and robotics, underlining the Japanese automaker's determination to lead in futuristic cars that drive themselves and apply the technology to other areas of daily life.

Toyota Motor Corp. President Akio Toyoda said the company will start operating from January 2016, with 200 employees at a Silicon Valley facility near Stanford University. A second facility will be established near Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge.

The investment, which will be spread over five years, comes on top of $50 million Toyota announced earlier for artificial intelligence research at Stanford and MIT. Toyota said its interest extended beyond autonomous driving, which is starting to be offered by some automakers and being promised by almost all of them.

Toyota has already shown a robot designed to help the elderly, the sick and people in wheelchairs by picking up and carrying objects. The automaker has also shown human-shaped entertainment robots that can converse and play musical instruments. As the world's top auto manufacturer, Toyota already uses sophisticated robotic arms and computers in auto production, including doing paint jobs and screwing in parts.

Toyota, which has gone through troubled times with massive recalls and the 2011 tsunami in northeastern Japan, has the cash these days to invest in the future. On Thursday, it kept its profit forecast for the fiscal year through March 2016 unchanged at 2.25 trillion yen ($18.5 billion), as profit rose on cost cuts and the benefits of a weak yen.


3 Religious children found to be meaner (Harriet Sherwood in The Guardian) Children from religious families are less kind and more punitive than those from non-religious households, according to a new study. Academics from seven universities across the world studied Christian, Muslim and non-religious children to test the relationship between religion and morality. They found that religious belief is a negative influence on children’s altruism.

“Overall, our findings ... contradict the commonsense and popular assumption that children from religious households are more altruistic and kind towards others,” said the authors of The Negative Association between Religiousness and Children’s Altruism across the world, published this week.
“More generally, they call into question whether religion is vital for moral development, supporting the idea that secularisation of moral discourse will not reduce human kindness – in fact, it will do just the opposite.”

Almost 1,200 children, aged between five and 12, in the US, Canada, China, Jordan, Turkey and South Africa participated in the study. Almost 24% were Christian, 43% Muslim, and 27.6% non-religious. The numbers of Jewish, Buddhist, Hindu, agnostic and other children were too small to be statistically valid.

The study also found that “religiosity affects children’s punitive tendencies”. Children from religious households “frequently appear to be more judgmental of others’ actions”, it said. At the same time, the report said that religious parents were more likely than others to consider their children to be “more empathetic and more sensitive to the plight of others”.

The report pointed out that 5.8 billion humans, representing 84% of the worldwide population, identify as religious. “While it is generally accepted that religion contours people’s moral judgments and pro-social behaviour, the relation between religion and morality is a contentious one,” it said.

Thursday, November 5, 2015

EU economy set for 'modest' recovery; FB has a billion daily users and rising mobile ad sales; India home to most confident consumers

1 EU economy set for ‘modest’ recovery (BBC) The economic recovery within the European Union and the eurozone should continue at "a modest pace" next year, the EU has forecast. The economy of the 28-nation EU is set to grow by 1.9% this year, 2.0% in 2016 and by 2.1% the year after. The 19-nation eurozone is expected to grow by 1.6% this year, rising to 1.8% next year and 1.9% in 2017.

The EU said growth was being helped by factors such as low oil prices and a weaker euro exchange rate. Another factor cited was the European Central Bank's attempts to stimulate the eurozone economy through its bond-buying programme.

However, the report also warned that new challenges to growth were appearing, including the slowdown in China and emerging market economies, and geopolitical tensions.

The EU's executive arm expects three million migrants to arrive in Europe by 2017 as they flee war and poverty in Syria and other conflict zones. It predicts the increase in labour supply could boost GDP growth in the medium term provided the correct policies are in place.


2 FB has a billion daily users and rising mobile ad sales (Sam Thielman in The Guardian) Facebook now averages 1.1 billion users a day, according quarterly results announced on Wednesday, which also revealed the company made more money on mobile advertising alone than the whole business took in during the same period last year.

When its flagship product hit the billion-user milestone on 24 August, the company took a victory lap; now that appears to be slightly below the norm. The tech behemoth’s other platforms are expanding, as well: founder and chief executive Mark Zuckerberg said Instagram has topped 400 million monthly active users, and that WhatsApp has passed the 900 million mark “and continues to be on a path to reach a billion users and beyond”.

The mobile ad world is growing by leaps and bounds – so quickly, in fact, that analytics firm eMarketer predicts that Facebook’s global market share will actually shrink from 38.4% to 33.7% even as its revenues increase dramatically.

Facebook attributed 78% of its $4.29bn advertising revenue to mobile. All revenue across the business amounted to $3.2bn during the third quarter of 2014; this quarter, mobile ads alone accounted for $3.35bn. Mobile monthly active users alone were 1.39 billion.

Facebook is also about to expand its news business into a new app called Notify, which will stand alone from Facebook and allow users to subscribe to and personalize mobile notifications from participating publications. The app could launch as early as this week, according to the Financial Times.


3 India home to most confident consumers (Khaleej Times) Consumers in India - now the fastest-growing big economy - are the world's most confident, according to Nielsen. Surging personal wealth is pushing an unprecedented number of Indians to tour the globe. Indians are also taking on more credit, helping to bolster spending power as the festival season approaches.

Higher consumption in a retail sector that accounts for about half the economy will help Prime Minister Narendra Modi get companies to invest more and create jobs for a burgeoning population. Spending could rise further following four interest rate cuts and a scheduled pay hike for state employees.

The continuing challenge of a global economic slowdown means it will take time to use up India's manufacturing slack - about 1.5 years until capacity utilisation reaches around 85 per cent, from 71.5 per cent now. Price competition means it may take time for consumption gains to be reflected on corporate balance sheets.

Cheaper fuel amid a global commodity slump and sliding inflation has left more cash in the hands of consumers. As average household incomes triple to $18,448 over the decade through 2020, India's retail sales will double from current levels to $1 trillion, the Boston Consulting Group estimated in a February report.

The number of rich Indians rose a world-beating 26 per cent in 2014, according to a report from Cap Gemini and RBC Wealth Management. They also borrow a lot - second only compared with their peers in the Netherlands - and among their baubles are homes in gated communities they can buy only if invited to.

It's too early to reach a conclusion on whether the consumption surge will be sustainable, said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist at L&T Financial Services. Credit going toward durable consumer products such as TVs and smartphones remain far from their peak levels, she said. Loan-growth numbers also are flattered by lower levels from last year.

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Kraft Heinz shuts plants, cuts 2,500 jobs; Facebook profit up; Italy is top winemaker; Bhutan, nation of 90% joy

1 Kraft Heinz shuts plants, cuts 2,500 jobs (BBC) Food giant Kraft Heinz is closing seven factories and cutting 2,600 jobs in North America in an effort to reduce costs. The cuts are in addition to the 2,500 workers in the region the company announced it would let go in August.

Wednesday's cuts will account for almost 6% of its workforce and will take place over the next two years. The two firms merged in a $46bn deal in July to create North America's third biggest food company.

The cutbacks are part of the new company's plan to save about $1.5bn in operating costs by the end of 2017. The maker of well-known brands such as Macaroni and Cheese Dinner and Heinz Ketchup also said it would close a nearly 100-year-old Oscar Mayer meat plant in Wisconsin and move the operations to Chicago. The company is controlled by the Brazilian investment firm 3G Capital, which is known for trimming costs.


2 Facebook profit up (BBC) Facebook has reported a spike in profits in the third quarter on the back of increased advertising sales. The social media company reported net income was up 11% to $891m for the period between July and September compared with $806m last year.

Facebook also reported strong user growth in developing markets. Investors have been waiting for signs that Facebook has made money from Instagram and WhatsApp, and for increased revenue from video.

The company, which is already the world's largest social media site, reported it gained 60 million new monthly active users in the third quarter, bringing its global users to 1.55 billion. A growth in monthly active users means greater reach for advertisers using Facebook. The company said Facebook and Instagram account for one in every five minutes Americans spend online.

Facebook has been focused on efforts to get more small businesses to advertise on its website. Last week the company introduced a new slideshow feature that allows advertisers to produce lower cost videos for their products.

Investors had been watching to see the levels of spending as Facebook looks to grow and move beyond basic social media. It bought the virtual reality company Oculus Rift for $2bn in 2014. Oculus is virtual reality display that individuals wear on their heads. Many media analysts think it could change the gaming industry.


3 Italy is top winemaker (San Francisco Chronicle) Italy is the biggest wine producer in the world this year, pushing France back into second place, as good weather in most European countries pushes up production — and keeps a lid on prices for consumers.

The European Union's farm federation said quality and yields of the harvest were good, with production rising 2.7 percent to 171.2 million hectoliters. Italy had a 12 percent increase in volume to reach 50.3 million hectoliters.

Spain, though, saw its production fall to 40.6 million hectoliters this year from 53.6 million hectoliters the year before when a drought ravaged some of the vineyards in southern regions. In comparison, the US had an estimated level of production of 22.1 million hectoliters, with Argentina, Chili and Australia hovering around the 12-13 million mark.


4 Bhutan, nation of 90% joy (Tim Dowling in The Guardian) News from the International Conference on Gross National Happiness, says Bhutan’s happiness index rose from 0.743 in 2010 to 0.756 in 2015. “Is this fast or slow?” asked Bhutan’s prime minister in his keynote speech. “We do not yet know. We are still learning what is a ‘good’ growth rate!” He sounds jolly.

The notion of GNH was first introduced by Bhutan’s fourth king in the 70s, when he announced that “gross national happiness is more important that gross national product”. The GNH index is a number crunched from happiness survey statistics across nine “domains”, of which only one is living standards. Others include health, education, psychological wellbeing, time use, community vitality and cultural diversity.

GNH is a blend of hard numbers, subjective perceptions and virtually unmeasurable concepts, but it works pretty well in Bhutan, provided you’re not among the 17% of the population – mostly Hindus of Nepalese origin – expelled from the country in the 90s. It’s one way to get your GNH index up – kick out that oppressed minority.

In the last decade the idea of GNH has gained international traction. In the US some states measure the genuine progress indicator, alongside gross state product. In 2012, the UN released a World Happiness report. And the UK’s Office for National Statistics recently started measuring national wellbeing.

In Bhutan, people’s perceptions of their own health worsened even as healthcare indices improved. Still, 91% of Bhutanese are classed as either narrowly, extensively or deeply happy. Joy-wise it’s roughly on a par with Denmark, even though Bhutan’s adult literacy rate is around 60% and its GDP per capita puts it well below mid-table in world rankings.

Monday, November 2, 2015

Global manufacturing struggles as stimulus falls short; Nissan reports 38% profit rise; Best news: There's progress in ending extreme poverty

1 Global manufacturing struggles as stimulus falls short (Gulf News) Massive monetary stimulus from Chinese and European central banks has done little to spur factory growth, moving a debate over more easing up the agenda and raising doubts over whether US interest rates will rise this year.

A crop of industry surveys have pointed to October as another subdued month. Activity in China’s colossal factory sector shrank as global demand stuttered while Eurozone factories again resorted to slashing prices to drum up trade.

More than half a year after the ECB started pumping in 60 billion euros a month of new money through its quantitative easing programme, the currency bloc’s relatively downbeat manufacturing survey may make disappointing reading for policymakers. The central bank has failed to lift inflation anywhere near its target of just below 2 per cent, and data on Friday showed prices were unchanged last month, heaping more pressure on the bank to act.

Beijing has also rolled out a raft of support steps to avert a sharper slowdown, including cutting interest rates six times in the past year, but the stimulus has been slower to take effect than in the past.

The only promising news came from Japan and Britain. Markets are betting the Bank of Japan will have to expand its asset-buying campaign. In Britain, which doesn’t use the euro, factory activity unexpectedly surged to a 16-month high helped by a recovery in export orders although economists remained cautious.


2 Nissan reports 38% profit rise (San Francisco Chronicle) Nissan's profit for the July-September quarter zoomed 38 percent higher on healthy sales in China, the US and Europe, prompting the automaker to raise its full-year projections.

Yokohama, Japan-based Nissan Motor Co. reported a fiscal second quarter profit of 172.8 billion yen ($1.4 billion), up from 124.9 billion yen the year before. Quarterly sales at the automaker allied with Renault SA of France rose 13 percent to 3.034 trillion yen ($25.2 billion).

Nissan now expects a 535 billion yen ($4.4 billion) profit for the full year through March 2016, which would be an increase of nearly 17 percent from the previous year. It credited strong sales, cost cuts and a favorable exchange rate. The maker of the Leaf electric car and Infiniti luxury models had earlier expected a 485 billion yen ($4 billion) profit for the fiscal year.

Nissan has recently shown its advances in developing the self-driving car. It's also a world leader in electric vehicles, with cumulative global sales of 200,000 for its Leaf electric car. The self-driving technology, still in its experimental stages and not yet for commercial use, is being packed in the Leaf as well.

Such cutting-edge technology doesn't contribute much to vehicle sales in its early phases but is a boon to Nissan's image. Nissan expects to sell 5.5 million vehicles for the fiscal year, up 3.4 percent from the previous year.


3 Best news: There’s progress in ending extreme poverty (Jim Yong Kim in The Guardian) The dramatic fall in global poverty over the past two decades is the best news in the world today. For the first time ever, the percentage of people living in extreme poverty – now defined as living on less than $1.90 a day – is projected to fall below 10% this year, to 9.6% of the world’s population.

Unprecedented economic growth, especially in China, has allowed hundreds of millions of people to escape poverty. But to effectively end extreme poverty by 2030 – the goal of the World Bank Group and our 188 member countries – our aspirations must be higher still. Many tough decisions will have to be made before we can become the generation that ends extreme poverty.

The question we ask today is how developing countries can progress in the face of slow global growth, the end of the commodities super-cycle, pending interest rate hikes, and capital flight from emerging markets?

For the largely middle-income countries in East Asia and the Pacific, the challenge in this unfavorable global environment is to sustain growth, improve social services and protect the vulnerable. The Pacific Islands will also need to ensure stronger public finances in order to be best prepared for the impacts of climate change and future economic shocks.

Our overarching strategy, based on more than 50 years of experience, is that three things must happen: Economic growth must lift all people. It must be inclusive. Investment in human beings is crucial – especially investing in their health and education.

We must ensure that we can provide safety nets that prevent people from falling back into poverty because of poor health, economic shocks, or natural disasters. And, to spur growth, every dollar of public spending should be scrutinised for impact. And in a period when banks are de-risking, we have to ensure that capital is accessible – especially for small business owners and entrepreneurs who will create jobs.


Sunday, November 1, 2015

China manufacturing slows for third month; The next giant financial crash may have begun; Knowing your career assets

1 China manufacturing slows for third month (BBC) Chinese manufacturing has contracted for the third month in a row, according to the government's latest factory survey. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a reading of 49.8 for October, unchanged from last month. A figure below 50 indicates that factory activity contracted.

The most recent growth figures showed the country's economy growing at a rate of 6.9%, the weakest rate since the financial crisis. It has been hit by a stock market slump and a global slowdown in demand. Economists had expected October's PMI to show a pick-up to a reading of 50.

The government is trying to move away from being an export-led economy to a more consumer and services-led one. It has been taking action to try to spur growth, including cutting interest rates five times so far this year. Economists at ANZ Bank said the latest PMI survey indicated there could be further measures to come.


2 The next giant financial crash may have begun (Paul Mason in The Guardian) Many indicators in global finance are pointing downwards – and some even think the crash has begun. Let’s assemble the evidence. First, the unsustainable debt. Since 2007, the pile of debt in the world has grown by $57tn (£37tn). That’s a compound annual growth rate of 5.3%, significantly beating GDP. Debts have doubled in the so-called emerging markets, while rising by just over a third in the developed world.

This summer, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) pointed out that certain major economies were seeing a sharp rise in debt-to-GDP ratios, which were well outside historic norms. In China, the rest of Asia and Brazil, private-sector borrowing has risen so quickly that BIS’s dashboard of risk is flashing red. In two thirds of all cases, red warnings such as this are followed by a major banking crisis within three years.

The underlying cause of this debt glut is the $12tn of free or cheap money created by central banks since 2009, combined with near-zero interest rates. When the real price of money is close to zero, people borrow and worry about the consequences later.

Next, let’s look at the price of real things. Oil collapsed first, in mid-2014, falling from $110 a barrel to $49 now. Next came commodities. Copper cost $4.50 a pound in 2011, but was half that in September. Inflation across the entire G7 is barely above zero, and deflation stalks the southern eurozone. World trade volumes have contracted tangibly since December 2014.

China – the engine of the post-2009 global recovery – is slowing markedly. Japan just revised its growth projections down, despite being in the middle of a massive money-printing programme. The eurozone is stagnant. In the US, growth, which recovered well under QE, has faltered after the withdrawal of QE.

It is in the world of geopolitics that the danger of elite groupthink is clearest. The economic danger becomes clear if you understand that printing $12tn incentivises every country to dump the final cost of anti-crisis measures on someone else. But there is now also clear geopolitical risk.

The oil price collapsed because the Saudis wanted to stymie the US fracking industry. Right now, although Russian and American diplomats are capable of sitting together in Vienna, their strike-attack pilots do not communicate as they attack their variously selected enemies on the ground in Syria. Europe, weakened by the Greek crisis, its cross-border institutions thrown into chaos by the refugee crisis, looks incapable of doing anything to anybody.

So, the biggest risk to the world, despite its growing seriousness, is not the deflation of a bubble. It is the risk of that becoming intertwined with geopolitics. Any politician who minimises or ignores this risk is doing what the purblind economists did in the run up to 2008.


3 Knowing your career assets (Kim Thompson in San Francisco Chronicle) Talking about your strengths and accomplishments can be perceived as trivial matters when in reality they are the foundation of your success. The lack of self-knowledge toward your skills often keeps talented people from progressing forward.

What are career assets? Think of them as an accumulation of your interests, values and personality. Everyone has accomplishments whether it is graduating from college or contributing to the success of a project but few people can recall specifics of what they did to accomplish their goals.

Knowing your career assets does more than help you land a better job — it helps boost your confidence and develops awareness. When you can readily identify the skills you use in “getting along with others and giving presentations”, you send a perception of energy and satisfaction.

One reason why people struggle with knowing their career assets could be the fear of bragging or seeming arrogant. People who are arrogant are often defensive and clueless about their areas of weakness whereas confident people will readily admit their shortcomings and strive to improve. Talking about what you did well is not bragging, rather it’s about the facts.

If you want to broaden your career assets, a good place to begin in helping you identify your skills and accomplishments is with a self-reflection exercise. Here are some questions that will help you become more in tune with your values, strengths and interests:

Name one of your most successful projects and the skills used to make it successful. What would you do if you knew you couldn’t fail? Choose five core values that describe you the most. What strengths would you describe as your “go to” strengths, the ones you use regularly? Answer the lottery question, “What would you do if money was not an issue”?