Thursday, December 1, 2011

The euro crisis in plain English; People out of touch with nature, says David Attenborough; Two ways to boost India rupee

1 The New York Times on the euro crisis in plain English. Lack of fluency in financialese shouldn’t preclude anyone from understanding what is going on in Europe or what may yet happen. So we’ve answered some of the most pressing questions in a language everyone can comprehend.

Q: Will the euro survive? It’s a dangerous question to ask out loud. Suppose a credible rumor spread throughout Greece that, rather than accept the harsh terms of another bailout package, the government was plotting to revert to the drachma. Fearing the devaluation of their savings, Greeks would move their money somewhere safer, like a German bank. The Greek banking system would then, in all likelihood, implode. But Greece’s economy is too small for an isolated collapse to cause any significant damage throughout the continent. (Even a collapse confined to Greece, Ireland and Portugal couldn’t take down Europe.) So the concern about a run on the Greek banking system is largely about whether a panic might spread to Spain or — worse — Italy, which could topple Europe’s financial system.

Q: Why is it such a bad thing for a country to abandon the euro? If a country did pull off a surprise euro exit — and get out before everybody could take their money out of the banks — there would still be a period of economic chaos. Exports and imports would shut down. Lending would collapse, which would send companies into bankruptcy. Ripple effects would be felt throughout Europe.

Q: Wait a minute: If leaving the eurozone would be so awful, why would anyone do it? It’s not all bad. Leaving the euro would allow a country to ignore demands from the leaders of other European countries. It could simply refuse to pay its debt. After the short-run pain, weaker European countries could also see a long-term benefit. If Greece or Portugal went back to the drachma or the escudo, the cost of their exports would fall. Because it would be cheaper for foreign travelers to stay in their hotels and eat in their restaurants, their tourism industries would get a bump, too. The alternative is to spend the next decade as poor countries tied to a rich one’s currency.

2 The Guardian quoting Sir David Attenborough as saying people are out of touch with nature. People in towns and cities are losing touch with the "realities of the natural world", which is putting the future of the planet at risk, Sir David Attenborough has warned. The veteran wildlife presenter said due to rapid urbanisation over the past 60 years, a growing number of people were not regularly coming into contact with the natural world. "We have a huge moral responsibility towards the rest of the planet. A hundred years ago people certainly had that ... They were aware of the seasons and aware of what they were doing to the land and animals around them", he said. Attenborough said UN figures showed that rapid urbanisation since the 1950s has led to more than 50% of the world's population living in towns and cities. "So over 50% is to some degree out of touch with the natural world and don't even see an animal from one day to the next unless it's a rat or a pigeon. That means that people are getting out of touch with the realities of the natural world, of which we are in fact a part."

3 TK Arun suggesting two ways to deal with Indian rupee’s depreciation, in The Economic Times. Here are two unconventional steps the government could take. One, allow workers who are now mandated to save nearly a quarter of their wages with the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation - 12% from their own salary plus a matching contribution from the employer - to migrate voluntarily to the National Pension System (NPS) that manages the pensions of civil servants who entered service after January 1, 2004. NPS subscribers are free to deploy up to 50% of their savings in the stock market. This is the best time to enter the stock market with a long-term investment horizon. When a share of domestic long-term savings currently withheld from the market, thanks to the perverse attitude of the EPFO's trustees, floods the market, the rise in yields would lure back foreign funds that have fled India. This will boost the rupee. Two, get Posco going in India. Let the government give a truly golden rehabilitation package to the villagers holding out against land acquisition where the Orissa government has allotted Posco land. It can deduct this expenditure from the tax concessions Posco has been promised. If the villagers are won over and the project allowed to begin, Posco's promised $12 billion would begin to flow in. Other investments would follow.

No comments:

Post a Comment