Thursday, May 17, 2012

Cost of Greek exit put at $1tn; A developing world of debt; Bank of England fears 'euro storm'; Cricket, ugly cricket; North Korea's cruel network of prisons

1 Cost of Greek exit put at $1tn (The Guardian) The British government is making urgent preparations to cope with the fallout of a possible Greek exit from the single currency, after the governor of the Bank of England, Sir Mervyn King, warned that Europe was "tearing itself apart". Reports from Athens that massive sums of money were being spirited out of the country intensified concern in London about the impact of a splintering of the eurozone on a UK economy that is stuck in double-dip recession. One estimate put the cost to the eurozone of Greece making a disorderly exit from the currency at $1tn, 5% of output. Officials in the US are also nervously watching the growing crisis: Barack Obama on Wednesday described it as a "headwind" that could threaten the fragile American recovery.

2 A developing world of debt (The Guardian) Years after debt campaigners succeeded in persuading the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and G8 to abolish debts worth billions of dollars owed by developing countries, figures show total external debts are once again on the increase. Data in the World Bank's global development finance 2012 report shows total external debt stocks owed by developing countries increased by $437bn over 12 months to stand at $4tn at the end of 2010, the latest period for which data is available.

The global financial crisis has focused attention on the debts of the rich west. The US had gross external debts (those borrowed from foreign lenders including commercial banks, governments, individuals or international financial institutions) of $14.3tn (95% of GDP) in 2010, while those in the European Union had swelled to $13.7tn (85% of GDP) and the UK owed $9tn (400% of GDP). But in the case of richer countries, these gross debt figures are balanced by debts owed to them by other countries.

3 Skinny white model may be bad for business (The Guardian) Is the persistent use of young, white, tiny girls to model clothes bad for business? Ben Barry, a modelling agency CEO with a scholarly background, surveyed over 2,000 women while researching female representation in fashion and discovered that there is a real business case for models to look a bit less like concentration camp prisoners and a little bit more like their actual customer base.

"My study found that women increased their purchase intentions by more than 200% when the models in the mock ads were their size. In the subgroup over size 6, women increased their purchase intentions by a dramatic 300% when they saw curvier models. Conversely, when women saw models who didn't reflect their size, they decreased their purchase intentions by 60%, and women over size 6 dropped their purchase intentions by 76%."

4 Bank of England warns of ‘euro storm’ (BBC) The Bank of England has cut its growth forecast for this year to 0.8% from 1.2%, saying the eurozone "storm" is still the main threat to UK recovery. The eurozone was "tearing itself apart" and the UK would not be "unscathed", said its governor Sir Mervyn King. He also confirmed that the Bank has been making contingency plans for the break-up of the euro.

"We have been through a big global financial crisis, the biggest downturn in world output since the 1930s, the biggest banking crisis in this country's history, the biggest fiscal deficit in our peacetime history, and our biggest trading partner, the euro area, is tearing itself apart without any obvious solution. "The idea that we could reasonably hope to sail serenely through this with growth close to the long-run average and inflation at 2% strikes me as wholly unrealistic," Sir Mervyn said.

5 JP Morgan losses may be higher (The New York Times) The trading losses suffered by JP Morgan Chase have surged in recent days, surpassing the bank’s initial $2 billion estimate by at least $1 billion, according to people with knowledge of the losses. When Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s chief executive, announced the losses last Thursday, he indicated they could double within the next few quarters. But that process has been compressed into four trading days as hedge funds and other investors take advantage of JPMorgan’s distress, fueling faster deterioration in the underlying credit market positions held by the bank.

One experienced credit trader who spoke on the condition of anonymity estimated that the initial loss of just over $2 billion was caused by a move of a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis points, on a portfolio with a notional value of $150 billion to $200 billion — in other words, the total value of the contracts traded, not JPMorgan’s exposure. In the four trading days since Mr. Dimon’s disclosure, the market has moved at least 15 to 20 basis points more against JPMorgan, he said.

6 Some good news amidst Greek crisis (Johannesburg Times) While Greece, the birthplace of democracy, is looking increasingly like becoming the graveyard of capitalism, hard pressed Greek consumers can console themselves with having the best rosé and sweet wines in the world as the results from the Concours Mondial de Bruxelles, judged earlier this month, confirm: Best Sparkling : Joly-Champagne Cuvée Spéciale (ChampagneFrance), Best White : Hacienda Zorita Verdejo 2011 (Rueda – Spain), Best Rosé : Theopetra Estate Rosé 2011 (Meteora – Greece), Best Red : Poliphonia Signature 2008 (Vinho Regional / Alentejo – Portugal), Best Sweet : Samos Nectar White 2008 (Samos – Greece), Best Spirit : La Botija Pisco Italia 2011 (Chincha – Peru).

7 Cricket, ugly cricket (Bikram Vohra in Khaleej Times) Big mistake. Being born Indian and not being a cricketer. That is like being a scorpion and not stinging. It’s in your nature, nothing you can do about it.  

And I would have been so good at not playing, like okay half a million and I’ll bowl an extra no ball besides the three in the deal. You want to sweeten the pot, okay fine, I’ll give a snick to the wicket-keeper on ball 3 and we are all happy bunnies. That’s another 250 though and that is a great offer because I am in a good mood. It’s free enterprise, right. Think about it, people. These cricketers are not saints. They are not Mother Theresa. They are performers so they perform and if you ask them to do tricks they do tricks. The thing is they want money for their tricks. So, fine you want to pay me to non-perform let’s hear the sum of money.

8 Bollywood: Dream machine of a billion (Dawn) In other parts of the world, making movies may be a business or high art but in Bollywood, cinema is nothing less than a religion. Its custodians are gods and goddesses who don’t age or do anything wrong. What is it about Hindi films that makes them so unique? People took actors portraying gods for real. Even though everything about the trade has been turned on its head, not much has changed in the passion people have towards films in India. Cutouts of actors large enough to be viewed from outer space are bathed in milk before audiences make way into the theatre to see the first-day-first-show at 4 in the morning.
In a nation like India where hope means more than anything, cinema plays a different role. People don’t mind going hungry in order to see a film and escape into a world where everything is all right or at least would be by the time they come out. If the filmmaker’s passion makes him/her stake everything for the entertainment of the everyman, the common man too displays uncommon zeal when it comes to films. The audiences love watching films and some of them are willing to forsake everything to live a dream. Divided between the sad truth, fabled myths and the fine line called Friday that divides the two, Bollywood continues to turn the wheels and live the dream.
9 Facebook ads not worth it, feels GM (The Wall Street Journal) General Motors Co. plans to stop advertising with Facebook Inc. after deciding that paid ads on the site have little impact on consumers' car purchases, according to a GM official.

The move by GM, one of the largest advertisers in the US, puts a spotlight on an issue that many marketers have been raising: whether ads on Facebook help them sell more products. On Friday, Facebook is expected to sell shares in an initial public offering that could put a market value on the company of as much as $104 billion. Executives have spent the last two weeks trying to convince investors that its advertising business makes it worthy of a sky-high valuation.
GM will continue to promote its products on Facebook, but without paying the social-media company, the GM official and other people familiar with the matter said. Many companies maintain free Facebook pages. GM's decision raises questions about the ability of Facebook to sustain the 88% revenue growth achieved in 2011. Facebook said last month its first-quarter ad revenue was down 7.5% from the previous three months. Facebook blamed "seasonal trends" for the decline, as well as a greater number of users from outside the US, where ad rates are lower.
10 North Korea’s cruel network of prisons (The Wall Street Journal) South Korean President Lee Myung-bak deserves praise for one accomplishment above all others: He has put human rights in North Korea on the world's agenda. This certainly has hit a nerve in Pyongyang. The late Kim Jong Il cut off talks with the South, and now Kim Jong Eun has embarked on a campaign of abuse against President Lee that is vile even by that regime's standards.
A new report by South Korea's National Human Rights Commission documents the suffering of Pyongyang's roughly 200,000 political prisoners, held in a network of labour camps across the country. The report contains detailed and harrowing accounts from 200 former prisoners. The North's totalitarian system imprisons people for seemingly trivial offenses, such as singing a South Korean song, and one person's perceived disloyalty can doom an entire family. Once in the camps, prisoners suffer from malnutrition, exposure and overwork. Then there are guards who enjoy torturing those under their control, or play sadistic games with them.
11 Waking up to ‘The Jayalalithaa Times’ (The Wall Street Journal) Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa is celebrating one year in office. And she is making sure no one – at least no one who reads the papers– misses out from the party. Anyone who picked up one of the major English-language newspapers on Wednesday, inevitably noticed the front page ad praising the “revolutionary measures” of Ms. Jayalalithaa, who is credited in the ad with having “rejuvenated and restored the glory” of her home state. The ad appeared in dailies including The Times of India, The Hindustan Times, The Hindu, The Economic Times, Asian Age and The Indian Express.

“One Year of Achievements Hundred Years Leap Forward,” the front-page add proudly claimed, going on to list some of the chief minister’s top achievements of the year. These reek of populism, ranging from having given “mixies, grinders and electric fans to women at no cost” to free laptops to students. Her government also distributed cows, goats and sheep to the poor as well as gold to women getting married. But many observers are complaining the money used on newspaper ads could have been better spent. According to reports, together the ads cost an estimated 250 million rupees ($4.6 million).

On Twitter, a user identified as “Soul in exile”, wrote: “Most of Jayalalithaa‘s ‘achievements’ today r vulgar ‘freebies at no cost’ waste of tax payer money already….laptops/cows/gold/rice for free.” Another Twitter user wrote: “Jayalalithaa splurging exchequer’s money is just one of the many daily instances of blatant disregard for public interest in India!” Others joked that they “Felt ‘Superpowerful” when they found Jayalalithaa on their doormat Wednesday morning.

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