Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Bank 'wipeout' if weakest Euro nations leave; Brazil is economic powerhouse but no green hero; 'A miracle that women survive in India'; Afghan war casualty -- Five kids a day

1 A bank 'wipeout' if weakest Euro nations leave (The Guardian) Few large eurozone banks would be left standing and the banking sector could face a €370bn loss if the euro crisis results in the single currency bloc breaking apart, according to one of the first indepth analyses of what might happen if the eurozone disintegrates. The analysis by Credit Suisse estimates that up to 58% of the value of Europe's banks could be wiped out by the departure of the "peripheral" countries - Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain - from the eurozone.

Even if the single currency remains intact some €1.3tn of credit could be sucked out of the system as banks retrench to their home markets, unwinding years of financial integration, the Credit Suisse analysis warns. This represents as much as 10% of the credit in the financial system. "We find that a Greek exit could be manageable ... but in a peripheral exit, few of the large listed eurozone banks would be left standing," the Credit Suisse report said.

The banking sector could need capital injections of as much as €470bn if the three scenarios considered by the Credit Suisse analysts - a Greek exit, an exit of the periphery countries and a situation where banks retrench domestically - happen at once. The UK's banks will not escape unscathed, although they are better insulated than those in the eurozone. In the event that the peripheral countries leave the eurozone, Barclays faces losses of €37bn and bailed out Royal Bank of Scotland some €26bn.

2 Brazil is economic powerhouse, but no green hero (The Guardian) Despite Brazil's emergence as a global economic power, its massive environmental resources and its environmentally conscious people, many Brazilian companies and politicians have still not fully taken on board sustainable development as a strategic priority. The ongoing debate about a forestry law that could encourage deforestation has exposed deep divisions in Brazilian society. The UN Conference on Sustainale Development, also referred to as Rio+20, will take place in Rio de Janeiro in Brazil next week.

Brazil itself is one of the world's most environmentally diverse and sensitive countries. Almost 50% of Brazilian territory is taken up by the earth's largest tropical forest, the Amazon rainforest, home to nearly 50% of all the world's biodiversity. Almost half of all the energy consumed in Brazil comes from renewable sources: 75% from hydroelectricity and the rest from biomass, solar energy and ethanol. The Brazilian economy just overtook the UK to become the world's sixth largest economy. Brazil's poverty rate has also fallen significantly and in just the past five years some 30 million Brazilians (17.6% of the population) have joined the middle class.

In addition to all the plentiful natural resources available such as water and farmable land, Brazil is also becoming a very important player in the economic and political world scene. Nevertheless, it is still very much a land of contradiction, as Brazilian society, companies and government all struggle to address the many issues that remain. An example of this is a recent controversy surrounding the new version of a forest management law. The law represented a major step backwards for Brazilian environmental legislation and for our forests: its intent was to give an amnesty to land owners who cleared land in the past and who had illegally invaded and deforested riparian areas. The law also opened several loopholes for legalising further deforestation.

3 Aussie marine reserve (BBC) Australia says it will create the world's largest network of marine parks ahead of the Rio+20 summit. The reserves will cover 3.1m sq km of ocean, including the Coral Sea. Restrictions will be placed on fishing and oil and gas exploration in the protected zone covering more than a third of Australia's waters. Last year, the Australian government announced plans to protect the marine life in the Coral Sea - an area of nearly 1m sq km.

4 The vicious euro circle keeps turning (Stephanie Flanders on BBC) It's no good bailing out the banks if you can't bail out the economy. That, in a nutshell, is the judgement that financial markets seem to have been making about Spain in the past few days. Why are investors still so gloomy about Spain? One part of the explanation is probably our old friend, political uncertainty. The Greek election looms large on the horizon, and the agenda for the European summit at the end of next month looks painfully ambitious.

But the core of the problem for Spain is economic growth. In Italy, too - worries about the state of the economy helped push up the Italian government's cost of borrowing at the start of the week. It's largely the grim prospects for the Spanish economy that has led Fitch and other ratings agencies to downgrade so many Spanish banks in recent days. Emergency lending is helpful. But it can't make the recession go away, and it can't take away the need for many more years of fiscal austerity.

5 Outrage over China abortion picture (BBC) A photo purporting to show a baby whose mother was forced to have an abortion has shocked Chinese internet users.Feng Jiamei, from Zhenping county in Shaanxi, was allegedly made to undergo the procedure by local officials in the seventh month of pregnancy. Ms Feng was forced into the abortion as she couldn't pay the fine for having a second child, US-based activists said. Rights groups say China's one-child policy has meant women being coerced into abortions, which Beijing denies.

6 SA's service-delivery protests (Johannesburg Times) The number of violent service-delivery protests spiked this month and more can be expected. The use of tear gas, stone-throwing, setting up barricades of burning tyres and community anger have become common around the country and Kevin Allan, of Municipal IQ, which monitors 283 municipalities and keeps track of service-delivery protests, says they are becoming more frequent.

Most of the unhappiness arises from urbanisation - the flocking to the cities of people from poor rural areas to find jobs. They are forced to live in informal settlements lacking basic services. Yesterday, there were service-delivery protests in Cape Town and Johannesburg. Many promises were made by politicians in 2009 ahead of the national elections, when service-delivery protests were common.

7 'A miracle that women survive in India' (Dawn) The birth of a girl, so goes a popular Hindu saying, is akin to the arrival of Lakshmi – the four-armed goddess of wealth, often depicted holding lotus flowers and an overflowing pot of gold. In reality, India’s women are discriminated against, abused and even killed on a scale unparalleled in the top 19 economies of the world, according to a new poll by the Thomson Reuters Foundation. The survey, polling 370 gender specialists, found Canada to be the best place to be a woman amongst G20 nations, excluding the European Union economic grouping. Saudi Arabia was the second worst, after India.

"It’s a miracle a woman survives in India. Even before she is born, she is at risk of being aborted due to our obsession for sons," said Shemeer Padinzjharedil, who runs Maps4aid.com, a website which maps and documents crimes against women. "As a child, she faces abuse, rape and early marriage and even when she marries, she is killed for dowry. If she survives all of this, as a widow she is discriminated against and given no rights over inheritance or property."

Many of the crimes against women are in India’s heavily populated northern plains, where, in parts, there is a deep-rooted mindset that women are inferior and must be restricted to being homemakers and childbearers. In addition, age-old customs such as payment of hefty dowries at the time of marriage and beliefs linking a female’s sexual behavior to family honor have made girls seem a burden.

India had a female prime minister, and well-dressed women in Western attire driving scooters or cars to work is now an everyday sight in cities. Women doctors, lawyers, police officers and bureaucrats are common. But scratch under the surface and the threats in India are manifold – from female foeticide, child marriage, dowry and honor killings to discrimination in health and education and crimes such as rape, domestic violence and human trafficking. "There are two Indias: one where we can see more equality and prosperity for women, but another where the vast majority of women are living with no choice, voice or rights," said Sushma Kapoor, South Asia deputy director for UN Women.

8 Afghan war casualty: Five children a day (Dawn) Child casualties in the conflict in Afghanistan rose by more than a quarter last year, the UN said, with an average of nearly five youngsters killed or injured every day in 2011. A UN report on children in armed conflict said a total of 1,756 children were killed or injured in the war in Afghanistan in 2011, an average of 4.8 a day, compared with 1,396 in 2010.

The UN children’s agency UNICEF said more than 300 under-18s were reportedly recruited to fight in Afghanistan, where Taliban militants are waging an increasingly bloody insurgency against the government and its Western backers. Tens of thousands of children in Afghanistan, driven by poverty, work on the streets of the war-torn country’s cities and often fall prey to Taliban bombings and other violence, as well as abuse.

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