Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Lessons from Apple, Facebook; India infra investment plunges; US arms sales at record $66bn; Men, who needs them?; Time up for wrist watches?

1 Lessons from Apple, Facebook (Francesco Guerrera in The Wall Street Journal) The gap between the values placed by investors on Apple and Facebook — around $621 billion and $42 billion, respectively — is large enough to fit the economy of South Africa. But the distance between the yin and the yang of the US stock market is more telling than that and offers three insights into investors' current thinking.
First, pervasive uncertainty and ultra-low interest rates are prompting the market to look at the long term. By ascribing such a large value to Apple, investors are betting on the company being alive and well for a long time. This isn't just a gut reaction but a belief in Apple's continued ability to generate profits. Low rates help this process by effectively reducing the value of money invested today—think of the meager interest you get from your bank— and increasing the importance of future returns.
"What we are seeing with Apple's rise and Facebook fall is a long-term story," says Frank Partnoy, a professor of finance and law at the University of San Diego, whose latest book, "Wait," extols the merits of thinking before acting. "People are looking at the two business models and saying: 'Apple is going to be around and Facebook might or might not be around.'"
The second message concerns the companies' management teams, which are both led by rookie chief executive officers. The difference between Tim Cook and Mark Zuckerberg however, is that the former is succeeding a legend while the latter has been hailed as a legend in the making. So far, the market has been unequivocal: Since Steve Jobs’ death, Apple's shares have risen 78%. Since Mr. Zuckerberg became CEO of a public company, Facebook's shares are down 49%.
The third issue is whether Apple's record value and Facebook's stock plunge should be seen as "sell" and "buy" signs, respectively. The price/earnings ratio: Apple is trading at less than 13 times next year's estimated earnings, while Facebook is at around 30 times. Despite its reputation for "irrational exuberance" and short-termism, the market appears remarkably cool and long-sighted in judging the prospects of two era-defining technology giants.
2 India infra investment plunges (The Wall Street Journal) The official word on India’s slowing infrastructure investment is out. While market-watchers focused their attention on the Reserve Bank of India’s pledge to keep its eyes on inflation to guide its monetary policy on Friday, many missed another grim piece of news: the central bank’s data on investment in the infrastructure sector. The RBI said investment in new infrastructure projects fell 46% in the year through March, dropping from 3.9 trillion rupees ($70 billion) to 2.1 trillion rupees.
The central bank added that planned investment in infrastructure projects for the year that began in April is down 52% from the previous year to 1 trillion rupees. Looking ahead, the RBI isn’t too cheery. It says the government’s target of achieving $1 trillion in investment in the infrastructure sector by 2017 seemed a “formidable” challenge.
Another piece of bad news for the sector comes from Credit Suisse, which said that infrastructure companies are piling up high levels of debt, which is making Indian banks more risk-prone. Credit Suisse said that the combined debt of the top 10 groups, focused on the infrastructure sector, grew over five times in last five years, to 5.39 trillion rupees from 993 billion rupees, at an average annual growth rate of 40%.
3 US arms sales at record $66bn (Dawn) Weapons sales by the US tripled in 2011 to a record high, pumped up by $33.4 billion in sales to Saudi Arabia, but the international arms market is not likely to continue growing, according to a comprehensive new congressional report. The United States sold $66.3 billion of weapons overseas in 2011, accounting for nearly 78% of all global arms sales, which rose to $85.3 billion in 2011, the highest level seen since 2004. The previous US record was set in 2008, when arms sales reached $38.2 billion, measured in 2011 dollars.
“The extraordinary total value of US weapons orders in 2011 distorts the current picture of the global arms trade market,” said the report by the non-partisan Congressional Research Service, calling $66.3 billion in US arms sales “a clear outlier figure.” France signed arms sales valued at $4.4 billion in 2011, up from $1.8 billion a year earlier, but Russia, the world’s number two arms dealer, saw its sales nearly halved to $4.8 billion in 2011. The four major European suppliers — France, the UK, Germany, and Italy — saw their collective market share drop to 7.2% in 2011 from 12.2% a year earlier.
4 German business confidence dips again (BBC) German business confidence has fallen for the fourth month in a row to a 29-month low, according to the closely-watched Ifo survey. The index compiled by the think tank fell to 102.3 in August from a downwardly revised 103.2 in July. The survey of 7,000 firms suggests businesses are increasingly nervous about Germany's ability to withstand the weak eurozone economy. Growth in Europe's largest economy slowed between April and June to 0.3%.
5Arctic sea ice at record low (BBC) The Arctic has lost more sea ice this year than at any time since satellite records began in 1979, Nasa says. Scientists involved in the calculations say it is part of a fundamental change. What is more, sea ice normally reaches its low point in September so it is thought likely that this year's melt will continue to grow. Nasa says the extent of sea ice was 1.58m sq miles (410m sq km) compared with a previous low of 1.61m sq miles (4.17m sq km) on 18 September 2007. The thickness of the sea ice is also declining, so overall the ice volume has fallen far - although estimates vary about the actual figure.
6 Men, who needs them? (Greg Hampikian in The New York Times) Mammals are named after their defining characteristic, the glands capable of sustaining a life for years after birth — glands that are functional only in the female. And yet while the term “mammal” is based on an objective analysis of shared traits, the genus name for human beings, Homo, reflects an 18th-century masculine bias in science.
That bias, however, is becoming harder to sustain, as men become less relevant to both reproduction and parenting. Women aren’t just becoming men’s equals. It’s increasingly clear that “mankind” itself is a gross misnomer: an uninterrupted, intimate and essential maternal connection defines our species. With expanding reproductive choices, we can expect to see more women choose to reproduce without men entirely. Fortunately, the data for children raised by only females is encouraging. As the Princeton sociologist Sara S. McLanahan has shown, poverty is what hurts children, not the number or gender of parents.
That’s good, since women are both necessary and sufficient for reproduction, and men are neither. From the production of the first cell (egg) to the development of the foetus and the birth and breast-feeding of the child, fathers can be absent. They can be at work, at home, in prison or at war, living or dead.
When I asked a female colleague if she thought that there was yet anything irreplaceable about men, she answered, “They’re entertaining.” Gentlemen, let’s hope that’s enough.
7 Big chem, big harm? (Nicholas D Kristof in The New York Times) New research is demonstrating that some common chemicals all around us may be even more harmful than previously thought. It seems that they may damage us in ways that are transmitted generation after generation, imperilling not only us but also our descendants.
Yet following the script of Big Tobacco a generation ago, Big Chem has, so far, blocked any serious regulation of these endocrine disruptors, so called because they play havoc with hormones in the body’s endocrine system. One of the most common and alarming is bisphenol-A, better known as BPA. The failure to regulate it means that it is unavoidable. BPA is found in everything from plastics to canned food to ATM receipts. More than 90% of Americans have it in their urine.
8 Time up for wrist watches? (Khaleej Times) Nearly a 100 years after watches became popular on wrists — including those of men — exciting new possibilities are being thought off by leading technology companies, who want to link that watch wirelessly to your handsets, tablets and other devices. Wristwatches, if you’ve noticed, are almost alien to teenagers who prefer tracking time on their mobiles or laptops. So is it time up for these devices and will they meet the same fate as cassettes and vinyl records? Not if it can be helped.
The race for the wrist is already on as tech giants including Apple and Sony, besides several start-ups are working out ways to wirelessly connect the ordinary wristwatch to their high-tech gadgets. California-based start-up Martian Watches has just launched wristwatches that not only tell you the time but enable you to read text messages from the mobile (kept in your pocket or handbag), answer calls while you are driving or lugging the shopping cart, or take your voice commands.

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