1 Insecurity looms for Europe in 2015 (Gavin Hewitt
on BBC) For Europe, 2015 will witness another attempt to reach a place of
safety. For the past two years European officials and leaders have declared the
economic crisis over. In the past six months a sense of foreboding has
returned. The dangers are not the same as 2012. There is no danger of countries
being unable to fund their debts. The threat now is of stagnation and
deflation.
In 2015 economic recovery will be uneven. Demand is
chronically weak. Germany will remain the engine room of the European economy
but will not be the powerhouse it was two years ago. Growth in France will be
around 0.7%. Italy should edge away from recession but the eurozone is not
expected to achieve growth of more than 1% and that will not be enough to dent
an unemployment rate that remains at 11.7%.
Europe still seems to be placing its bets on keeping
the value of the euro low and relying on cheaper exports to boost demand at
home. 2015 will once again give the anti-establishment parties the opportunity
to mine Europe's discontent. One of the key factors in undermining support for
the mainstream parties is unemployment. In France the number of people looking for
work has reached a record high. In Italy, Matteo Renzi is facing popular
opposition to his reforms but the test will be whether those reforms are
watered down and whether they are rigorously implemented.
No issue reflects the volatility of the European
mood more than migration and immigration. Once again the summer months will see
large numbers of people fleeing instability in the Middle East and Africa
trying to cross the Mediterranean to reach Europe.
Russia will remain a troubling unknown. A
miscalculation in Eastern Ukraine could tug Europe towards a new cold war. The
Russian economy is hurting. That would hurt the wider European economy. 2015 is
likely to see European unity tested again over Russia.
2 US, Nato end 13-year war in Afghanistan (San
Francisco Chronicle) The war in Afghanistan, fought for 13 bloody years and
still raging, came to a formal end Sunday with a quiet flag-lowering ceremony
in Kabul that marked the transition of the fighting from US-led combat troops
to the country's own security forces.
In front of a small, hand-picked audience at the
headquarters of the NATO mission, the green-and-white flag of the International
Security Assistance Force was ceremonially rolled up and sheathed, and the flag
of the new international mission called Resolute Support was hoisted.
US Gen. John Campbell, commander of ISAF,
commemorated the 3,500 international soldiers killed on Afghan battlefields and
praised the country's army for giving him confidence that they are able to take
on the fight alone. Beginning Jan. 1, the new mission will provide training and
support for Afghanistan's military, with the US accounting for almost 11,000 of
the 13,500 members of the residual force.
ISAF was set up after the US-led invasion as an
umbrella for the coalition of around 50 nations that provided troops and took
responsibility for security across the country. It ends with 2,224 American
soldiers killed, according to an Associated Press tally. The mission, which was
initially aimed at toppling the Taliban and rooting out al-Qaida following the
Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, peaked at 140,000 troops in 2010. Taliban spokesman
Zabihullah Mujahid called Sunday's event a "defeat ceremony" and said
the insurgents' fight would continue.
This has also been a deadly year for Afghanistan's
security forces — army, paramilitary and police — with around 5,000 deaths
recorded so far. Most of those deaths, or around 3,200, have been police
officers, according to Karl Ake Roghe, the outgoing head of EUPOL, the European
Union Police Mission in Afghanistan, which funds and trains a police force of
157,000.
3 China growth to slow to 7% in 2015 (Straits Times)
Growth in China's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to slow to 7 per
cent next year from a forecast 7.3 per cent this year, partly due to weakness
in global economies, a top Chinese government think-tank said in a report
published on Monday.
"The growth of the world economy may recover
slightly in 2015, but it will be difficult to see it fully recovering from
weakness seen since the global financial crisis," the State Information
Centre said. "As such, our country's economic growth will show a trend of
gradual slowdown, and is forecast to grow around 7 per cent in 2015," it
said.
China's consumer price index (CPI) is expected to
increase less than 2 per cent in 2015, compared with a forecast of more than 2
per cent this year, the think-tank said. Growth of exports is expected to
improve slightly to 7 per cent from a forecast 6 per cent this year, it said.
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