1 Global liquidity to stay abundant (Khaleej Times) Despite
US Fed hikes, global liquidity will remain extremely abundant due to monetary
easing by other central banks (ECB, BoE, BoJ, China), according to Euler
Hermes, the worldwide leader in trade credit insurance.
In its updated risk analysis for Q3 2016, the
company notes, however, that global growth should reach its lowest level in
2016 2.4 per cent and will in 2017 be below three per cent for the seventh
consecutive year, driven up by the US and emerging markets.
"Global liquidity should remain abundant due to
further monetary easing by major central banks, despite the US Fed hikes,"
said Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Euler Hermes. "However, low rates
and monetary policies are far from uniform, so liquidity can move rapidly
across the regions, generating volatility and turbulences."
Euler Hermes identified various alerts coming from
the regional tectonic plates: The US economy should benefit from resilient
consumption due to increasing confidence and private investment. The stronger
economic activity will alleviate the downward pressures on main suppliers of
the industrial sector. The expected Fed hikes have limited impact on emerging
market currencies.
Fine-tuned macro policies in China are aimed at
supporting growth, expected at +6.5 per cent in 2016 and +6.4 per cent in 2017.
There will, however, be lower demand for foreign goods, negative price
pressures and financial stress.
In Europe, growth is expected to remain stable at
+1.6 per cent due to a better policy mix. The ECB's Quantative Easing (QE)
programme is Europe's biggest safety belt and has doubled to 630 billion euros.
The region is characterised by multiple political uncertainties including
Brexit, upcoming elections and several points of tension.
Emerging markets will face various situations.
Expected growth of +3.8 per cent in 2016 and +4.4 per cent in 2017 will,
respectively, contribute to 1.5pp and 1.7pp of global growth. While Brazil and
Russia should exit recession, the credit crunch and exchange rate crisis impact
several other countries such as Mexico, Nigeria, Turkey or Venezuela.
2 To do an MBA or not (Lee Xin En in Straits Times) Amid
the gloom of an economic downturn, the prospect of a challenging job market and
the Government's exhortations to upgrade our skills, many are looking into the
next step to propel their career forward.
One option that seems to promise bigger salaries and
a higher rung on the management ladder is to enrol in a top business school for
a Master of Business Administration. Many senior and successful people felt
that learning on the job was more important. Several pointed out that MBA graduates
still had to be taught managerial skills and had to be treated like most new
employees.
But in my interviews with MBA graduates, many felt
they could not have learnt as much and as quickly about so many different
industries in this way. At an information session at Insead last week, I was
struck by the soft skills, such as negotiation, that can be learnt in an MBA
class through real-life situations.
The other criticism of the MBA, which is often
voiced more vociferously, is its cost. This year, Insead's 10-month MBA costs
€73,500 for tuition. That does not include accommodation and living expenses.
The top American MBA programmes, which typically take two years to complete,
cost about $70,000 for tuition.
For those interested in joining start-ups or looking
for a partner to start one, business school seems like a good place to begin. What
most savvy investors talk about when they discuss a good investment is often
related to their relationships and personal development.
In my opinion, an MBA is a good investment if you
are genuinely interested in business-related topics - the better if the MBA's
focus is specific and you want to find people with whom you can develop in
tandem, with common career and industry interests.
3 Anger of India’s Marathas (The Guardian) Over the
past two months, at least a dozen cities in the western Indian state of
Maharashtra have exploded in an unprecedented outburst of popular uprising from
the Maratha community, made up of the landowning farmer castes. The Marathas
comprise a third of Maharashtra’s 114 million population.
The silent protests began in July after the gang
rape and murder of a 15-year-old Maratha girl in the village of Kopardi,
allegedly by “untouchable” Dalit men. The incident stirred up anger in the
Maratha community, who argued that the police and media were neglecting the
case in the interests of political correctness.
In India, for generations, low-caste Dalit people
were considered “dirty” in the Hindu caste system. After independence in 1947,
caste was formally abolished, but continued to be one of the most important
identity markers, especially in rural India.
Maratha activists argue that if the girl had been
Dalit, and her alleged rapists and killers had been high-caste men, the
narrative would be far more appealing to politicians and journalists, who want
to be seen as champions of the underdog Dalit community. Discrimination, they
say, has now swung in the opposite direction: Dalits enjoy the benefits of
affirmative action in jobs and universities, while farmers face neglect from
successive governments.
The Marathas are so neglected that when the first
march happened, in the city of Aurangabad, none of the major local newspaper or
television outlets bothered to turn up, says Bhaiya Patil, a 28-year-old
activist who has become the social media manager of the movement.
“There were 500,000 people in the street and no one
was interested. There was no footage, no cameras, no coverage. That’s why we
turned to social media. We started posting our own pictures and video and
suddenly everyone started listening. It gave us our voice.”
The marches are silent, but their demands are loud
and clear. The movement brings together the economic and social grievances of
millions of people across Maharashtra. They want reforms in the Scheduled Caste
and Scheduled Tribe (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, which they argue is
unfairly used against higher-caste communities.
They want to be included in the list of “other
backward castes”, which gives welfare benefits to listed castes and which
politicians change every election season to win votes. The Marathas also want
loan repayments cancelled and a fund for drought-hit farmers.
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