Friday, September 14, 2012

US debt rating cut to AA-; Arctic sea ice at record low; India's cautious welcome to foreign retailers; Video insult rage spreads; Brazil growth forecast cut to 2%


1 US debt rating cut to AA- (San Francisco Chronicle) Egan-Jones, an independent credit-research firm, downgraded its rating on US government debt to AA- from AA, citing the Federal Reserve's plans to try to stimulate the economy. The credit rating agency said the Fed's plans to buy mortgage bonds will likely hurt the economy more than help it. The plan will weaken the value of the dollar and push up prices for oil and other commodities, Egan-Jones said. That would leave less for consumers to spend on other things.
But at the same time, Egan-Jones warned that the federal government's borrowing costs are likely to slowly rise as the global economy recovers. On Thursday, the Fed said it would buy $40 billion of mortgage bonds a month to help the economic recovery. It's the second time the Haverford, Pa. shop has downgraded US government debt in five months. In April, Egan-Jones lowered its rating on the US to AA from AA+. It stripped the US of a top AAA rating in July 2011.
Standard & Poor's stripped the government of its "AAA" rating on its bonds in August 2011. Fitch Ratings issued a warning of a potential downgrade.

2 Arctic sea ice at record low (The Guardian) Sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk to its smallest extent ever recorded, smashing the previous record minimum and prompting warnings of accelerated climate change. Satellite images show that the rapid summer melt has reduced the area of frozen sea to less than 3.5 million square kilometres this week – less than half the area typically occupied four decades ago.
Arctic sea ice cover has been shrinking since the 1970s when it averaged around 8m sq km a year, but such a dramatic collapse in ice cover in one year is highly unusual. A record low in 2007 of 4.17m sq km was broken on 27 August 2012; further melting has since amounted to more than 500,000 sq km. Scientists predicted that the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer months within 20 years, leading to possibly major climate impacts. "I am surprised. This is an indication that the Arctic sea ice cover is fundamentally changing. The trends all show less ice and thinner ice," said Julienne Stroeve, a research scientist.

3 India’s cautious welcome to foreign retailers (The Guardian) India's government has opened the country's retail sector to foreign supermarkets, a sign that long-awaited major reforms regarded as vital to relaunch the country's flagging economy may now be pushed through. Several major international brands such as Tesco, Carrefour and Walmart have been hoping to set up shop in the emerging economic power to exploit a £300bn retail market.
Other long-awaited moves included measures to allow foreign airlines to take stakes of up to 49% in India's troubled domestic domestic airlines and a sell-off of state-owned companies. A proposal has also been cleared which will allow overseas investors to buy up to 74% of broadcast carriage services, such as cable and internet TV.

The government of prime minister Manmohan Singh, the 79-year-old economist credited with reforming India's economy in the early 1990s, has been under fierce attack in recent months following a series of corruption scandals and a failure to halt sliding growth, tackle a growing fiscal deficit or support a weakened Indian rupee.
The new measure to allow overseas retailers into India is controversial. Critics claim it will destroy the livelihoods of millions of shopkeepers - including 15m "kirana" - owner-managed general shops and stalls. Currently most urban Indians get their groceries from corner stores, markets or barrows. Supporters say the move - which will allow foreign firms to own 51 % of ventures within India and sell directly to shoppers for the first time - will bring down soaring prices and help modernise India's ramshackle distribution systems.

4 Video insult rage spreads to 20 countries (The New York Times) Anti-American rage that began this week over a video insult to Islam spread to nearly 20 countries across the Middle East and beyond on Friday, with violent and sometimes deadly protests that convulsed the birthplaces of the Arab Spring revolutions, breached two more US embassies and targeted diplomatic properties of Germany and Britain.
The broadening of the protests appeared to reflect a pent-up resentment of Western powers in general, and defied pleas for restraint from world leaders, including the new Islamist president of Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, whose country was the instigator of the demonstrations that erupted three days earlier on the anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

The wave of unrest not only increased concern in the West but raised new questions about political instability in Egypt, Tunisia and other Middle East countries where newfound freedoms, once suppressed by autocratic leaders, have given way to an absence of authority.
5 Brazil growth forecast cut to 2% (BBC) Brazil has cut its growth forecast for this year as the global downturn hits exports and rising local debt levels weigh on consumption. The country will grow 2% this year, down from its previous forecast of 3%, Finance Minister Guido Mantega predicted. That would be the weakest annual performance since 2009 and a sharp slowdown from growth of 7.5% in 2010. Brazil became the world's sixth-largest economy this year, overtaking the UK.

President Dilma Rousseff recently launched the first in a series of measures that could inject up to $50bn (£32bn) into the economy over the next five years. The plan included privatising about 14,000km of railways and roads, followed by selling ports and lowering energy costs. Expensive energy, poor infrastructure and increasing labour costs - known as "Custo Brasil" or the "Brazil Cost" - have weighed on growth, analysts say.

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