1 Past history no indicator of how 2015 will be
(Jonathan Eyal in Straits Times) It is clear that 2014 has witnessed some
fundamental strategic shifts and surprises, destined to shape our lives for
years to come. The first and by far the most important is the end of the
post-Cold War period. There was always something odd about the fact that this
span of time, which began in 1989 and lasted for the past 25 years, never
acquired a name of its own, and was merely generically referred to as a period
after a previous period.
But now we know why, for the post-Cold War age was
just a lull rather than a new era with solid and durable foundations. Tensions
have lingered for years, but it was in 2014 that the eerie calm was shattered,
and great-power politics came back with a vengeance. The most spectacular
example of this is, of course, Russia, which stormed back on to Europe's
strategic stage with its military intervention in Ukraine.
Another major trend which dominated this year is
that of the accelerated internal disintegration of some existing states. The
Middle East holds the record, with the vicious civil wars in Lebanon and Syria
now joined by those inside Libya and Iraq.
Although Beijing has won the latest confrontation
with Hong Kong's Occupy Central protesters, it is losing Hong Kong. The
percentage of Hong Kong residents who identify themselves as primarily Chinese
is steadily declining and now stands at only 31 per cent overall, and a mere 8
per cent among the former British colony's youth. A similar phenomenon is at
work in Taiwan where cross-strait relations are now the most polarising and
divisive electoral issue.
Hovering above these developments has been the
continued eclipse in the strategic footprint and perceived influence of the US.
Still, 2015 could well be the year in which the US reclaims its primary global
position. The country is certainly well-equipped for it: its economy is
emerging from the global economic recession, its technological lead remains
undented, the creative vitality of its workforce is legendary and, as the
latest revolution in shale oil and natural gas indicates, no other nation on
earth has a more favourable energy mix than the US.
In short, the most optimistic conclusion from this
year may well be that past performance is not necessarily an indication of the
future, that neither the decline of the US nor a replay of the Cold War are as
inevitable as they may seem today.
2 Xiaomi is most valuable tech start-up (BBC) Chinese
smartphone maker Xiaomi has become the world's most valuable technology
start-up just four years after it was founded. The firm raised $1.1bn in its
latest round of funding, giving it a valuation of $45bn, which surpassed the
$40bn value of taxi booking app Uber.
It has quickly risen to the ranks of the world's
biggest smartphone makers, behind Samsung and Apple in sales. The company is
also set to unveil a new flagship device in January. Xiaomi's strategy of
producing cheap smartphones has catapulted its growth to overtake giant Samsung
this year in sales in the world's second largest economy China.
The company's worth is now more than quadruple the
$10bn valuation it received during its last financing round last year. Its
skyrocketing valuation comes despite the intellectual property challenges it
faced earlier this month in India, where sales were temporarily halted after
Swedish firm Ericsson filed a patent complaint.
The Beijing-based company has set a target of selling 60 million
smartphones this year, up from less than 20 million in 2013.
3 In India, religion bubbles over into politics (San
Francisco Chronicle) In small-town northern India, Muslims are offered food and
money to convert to Hinduism. If that doesn't suffice, they say they're
threatened. Across the country, the Christmas holiday is canceled for hundreds
of government servants who spend the day publicly extolling the policies of
Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Powerful Hindu nationalist leaders — some with
close ties to Modi's government — say they intend to ensure India becomes a
completely Hindu nation.
But Modi himself? He has remained silent as
nationalist demands have bubbled over into day-to-day politics, and amid
growing fears among minority religious groups of creeping efforts to shunt them
aside.
A largely Hindu country that has long proclaimed its
multicultural character, India has a sizable Muslim minority, a small Christian
community and even smaller pockets of other religions from Judaism to
Zoroastrianism.
Modi was catapulted to power on promises to develop
India's economy and root out the corruption and incompetence that had crippled
the previous government. But he had launched his political career in the
Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, a militant Hindu group that combines religious
education with self-defense exercises, and the parent organization of the ruling
party. The RSS has long been accused of stoking religious hatred against
Muslims.
Just how much Modi actually supports that sprawling
agenda — which includes everything from demands to rewrite school textbooks to,
at the most extreme end, the expulsion of non-Hindus from India — remains
unclear.
Amid the political fracas, major economic
legislation stopped cold. That has alienated many who supported Modi for his
economic agenda, and who worry that jobs and development will be pushed aside
by the demands of the Hindu right. "The 'cultural right' is too extreme
for the middle-of-the-road voter," Gurcharan Das, a writer and former
businessman, wrote. "Modi has his work cut out — he must assuage the
anxieties of the cultural extremists while pursuing his jobs agenda."
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