Saturday, December 27, 2014

Saudi Arabia to tap reserves for 2015 budget; France jobless at new record; Japan pins hope on stimulus

1 Saudi Arabia to tap reserves for 2015 budget (San Francisco Chronicle) Saudi Arabia's Cabinet has endorsed a 2015 budget that projects a slight increase in spending and a significant drop in revenues due to sliding oil prices, resulting in a nearly $39 billion deficit.

In a sign of mounting financial pressure, the Finance Ministry said the government would try to cut back on salaries, wages and allowances, which "contribute to about 50 percent of total budgeted expenditures." That could stir resentment among the kingdom's youth, who make up a majority of the population and are increasingly struggling to find affordable housing and salaries that cover their cost of living.

The price of oil— the backbone of Saudi Arabia's economy — has fallen by about a half since the summer. Saudi Arabia is extremely wealthy, but there are deep wealth disparities and youth unemployment is expected to mushroom absent a dramatic rise in private sector job creation. The International Monetary Fund says almost two-thirds of employed Saudis work for the government.

Associate Fellow and energy researcher at Chatham House, Valerie Marcel, said massive government spending across the Gulf on public sector salaries is "really the thing that keeps the lid on the bottle." She said that for now the Arab monarchies of the Gulf can afford to run deficits due to surpluses accumulated over the years from high oil prices.

Saudi Arabia, the Arab world's largest economy, said it would dig into its reserves to cover the difference between $229.3 billion in projected expenditures and $190.7 billion in revenues for the coming fiscal year. A quarter of expenditures will be spent on the education sector. The budget is expected to allay investor concerns that the drop in oil prices could lead to less government spending and reduced economic growth.

The kingdom's figures for the current fiscal year show a deficit -- for the first time since 2009 -- of $14.4 billion. Total expenditure had been projected at $228 billion, but ran 29 percent higher, at $293 billion, due to expansion work at Islam's two holiest mosques, among other projects, according to the Finance Ministry.


2 France jobless at new record (BBC) The number of people seeking work in France has risen to a record high, official figures show. The jobless total rose by 27,400 in November to 3,488,300 - the highest level yet seen. That means the number looking for a job has risen by 5.8% in the past year.

The jobless figures count the number of people claiming benefits and looking for work with the National Agency for Unemployment. The alternative international measure of unemployment, devised by the International Labour Organisation and based on a regular survey, says that unemployment in France rose to 2.84 million in the third quarter of the year, giving an unemployment rate of 9.9%.

The French Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, and the Economy Minister, Emmanuel Macron, outlined plans that included increasing the number of businesses operating on Sundays, and opening up regulated sectors, such as certain professions, to competition. It is not obvious this strategy would succeed in reviving the economy, even if implemented fully. The deregulation plan produced immediate protests by thousands of people in Paris and faces opposition from within the ruling Socialist Party.


3 Japan pins hope on stimulus (Straits Times) Japan's government approved on Saturday stimulus spending worth 3.5 trillion yen (S$38 billion) aimed at helping the country's lagging regions and households with subsidies, merchandise vouchers and other steps, which it hopes will boost GDP by 0.7 per cent.

The package was unveiled two weeks after a massive election victory by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition gave him a fresh mandate to push through his "Abenomics" stimulus policies.

Given Japan's dire public finances, the government will avoid fresh debt issuance and fund the package with unspent money from previous budgets and tax revenue that has exceeded budget forecasts due to economic recovery.

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