Sunday, May 24, 2015

Greece warns it is set to default on loans; 'Middle East pays $1trn for gender gap'; A year of Narendra Modi in India

1 Greece warns it is set to default on loans (Phillip Inman in The Guardian) Greece has threatened to default on €1.6bn (£1.14bn) of debt repayment due on international bailout loans next month, claiming it does not have the funds to satisfy creditors at the same time as paying wages and pensions.

Greek interior minister, Nikos Voutsis, a long-standing ally of the prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, insisted the country was near to financial collapse. He said Athens needed to strike a deal with its European partners within the next couple of weeks or it would default on repayments to the International Monetary Fund that form part of its €240bn rescue package.

His comments came as the finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, repeated his warning that the entire euro project would be undermined without a deal that proved acceptable to the Greek people. Varoufakis said that the Syriza-led Greek government has now “made enormous strides at reaching a deal”, and that it is now up to the European Central Bank, IMF and European Union to do their bit and “meet us one-quarter of the way”.

With crucial debt payments looming, combined with the need for Athens to find around €1bn to pay public sector wages and welfare payments in the first week of June, the eurozone appeared to be entering the final chapter in its dispute with Greece. Tsipras wants the EU, ECB and IMF to release a blocked final €7.2bn tranche of the bailout without imposing tough reforms and spending cuts agreed with the previous right-of-centre administration.


2 ‘Middle East pays $1trn for gender gap’ (Khaleej Times) Bring more Arab women into the workforce, invest in “bite-sized” infrastructure projects and get the private sector more involved in training young job seekers — these are the prescriptions of a leading Gulf entrepreneur for growing Middle Eastern economies and combating rampant youth unemployment.

Decision makers long seemed paralysed by the sheer size of the troubled region’s economic problems, but attitudes have changed in recent years, said Omar Kutayba Alghanim, co-chairman of last week’s regional World Economic Forum (WEF) conference and a leader of private sector efforts to tackle youth unemployment.

The Middle East and North Africa have the world’s highest rate of youth unemployment, with 29.5 per cent, up two percentage points from over a decade ago, according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO). Unemployment is particularly high among young women, in part because of the constraints placed on them by traditional societies in many parts of the region. Alghanim said that bringing more women into the workforce would spur economic growth.

He said the gender gap in the Middle East is three times bigger than that in most developing economies. If the gap were narrowed by just one-third, the regional GDP would grow by $1 trillion a year, or six per cent, said Alghanim, a former investment banker who now heads Alghanim Industries, one of the largest privately held companies in the Gulf.

One of the causes of youth unemployment is a disconnect between the skills young people acquire in schools and universities, where learning by rote tends to be the norm, and what modern private companies look for in potential employees. Alghanim said governments need to invest more in infrastructure projects. The region spends only five per cent of its gross domestic product on infrastructure, compared to 15 per cent in China, he said.


3 A year of Narendra Modi in India (Soutik Biswas on BBC) Is a year in power long enough to evaluate the performance of a new government? Possibly difficult in a country with many unresolved social and economic issues like India, but it is a good time for some stock-taking.

So it is with Narendra Modi and his BJP government, which stormed into power last May. Mr Modi promised achhe din, or better times, if elected. It is a promise which his supporters continue to cling to, and his detractors sneer at, saying it was a deceit to capture political power. If opinion polls are to be believed, Indians continue to be hopeful about Mr Modi.

In truth, Mr Modi faces little competition: the Congress party, under Sonia and Rahul Gandhi has still not recovered from last year's debacle. Mr Modi's first year in office has met with a mixed response. All leaders need luck on their side, and Mr Modi has had his share. Inflation has been tamed, and the fiscal deficit contained. For both, Mr Modi should thank cheap commodity - mainly oil - prices. Electricity generation has surged to a record high.

His government so far has been free of scams, and he is making his ministers and bureaucrats work hard. Plans to auction mineral rights - starting with this year's coal auction - should check corruption and foster transparency. He has energised India's foreign policy. He is mining the diaspora. Taking the lead in evacuating stranded people in conflict-zones like Yemen and rushing relief to earthquake-ravaged Nepal has earned his government rightful praise. "Two foreign policy priorities have emerged: South Asia and the management of a larger periphery with a focus on China," says Harsh V Pant of King's College, London.

Many say, it is not clear whether Mr Modi is a serious reformer or somebody merely comfortable with tinkering with the status quo. There is talk about reducing bloated government, but no radical reforms seem to be on the table. Mr Modi wants to set up 100 smart cities, but most of India's main cities have turned into urban dystopias. Nobody quite knows what Digital India means in a country where the elementary mobile telephone network is broken.

Mr Modi's problem is that he doesn't have the luxury his predecessors enjoyed. He raised massive hopes of transforming India; the tyranny of high expectations can bite badly. Some 13 million Indians are seeking jobs every year, and if Mr Modi cannot get them work, he won't have their votes. This is no longer an India which is endlessly willing to wait patiently. Mr Modi must know that - and that he needs to do more.

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