Saturday, May 23, 2015

US rate rise 'some time this year'; Ireland first to legalise gay marriage by popular vote; Britain resigns as a global power

1 US rate rise ‘some time this year’ (Straits Times) Janet Yellen has said she expects the Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates "at some point this year," saying delaying the long-awaited move risks the economy overheating. But the Fed chair also stressed the economy still showed weaknesses, with significant job market slack not reflected in the 5.4 percent jobless rate.

The comments came after minutes of the Fed's policy board made clear that slow economic growth in recent months meant it was not expecting to increase the benchmark Fed funds rate before July, despite earlier forecasts of a mid-year hike. Yellen said she expects the economy to bounce back from the stall in the first quarter, but that any decision needed to be based on clear improvement in the data.


2 Ireland first to legalise gay marriage by popular vote (Henry McDonald in The Guardian) Ireland has as voted by a huge majority to legalise same-sex marriage, becoming the first country in the world to do so by popular vote in a move hailed as a social revolution and welcomed around the world.

Some 62% of the Irish Republic’s electorate voted in favour of gay marriage. The result means that a republic once dominated by the Catholic Church ignored the instructions of its cardinals and bishops. The huge Yes vote marks another milestone in Ireland’s journey towards a more liberal, secular society.

All but one of the republic’s 43 parliamentary constituencies voted Yes to same-sex marriage. And fears of an urban-rural, Yes/No split were not realised either. Health minister Leo Varadkar, who this year came out as the country’s first openly gay minister, said the campaign had been “almost like a social revolution”.


3 Britian resigns as a global power (Fareed Zakaria in Khaleej Times) On Monday, the Right Honorable David Cameron, prime minister of Britain, gave his first major speech after being re-elected to his high office —once held by Pitt, Gladstone, Disraeli, Lloyd George, Churchill, and Thatcher. Confronting a world of challenges — from Greece’s possible exit from the Euro, a massive migration crisis on Europe’s shores, Ukraine’s perilous state, Russia’s continued intransigence, the advance of Daesh, and the continuing chaos in the Middle East — Cameron chose to talk about ... a plan to ensure that hospitals in the UK would be better staffed on weekends.

OK, that’s a bit unfair. Leaders everywhere, including the US, understand that “all politics is local.” But spending a few days recently in Britain, I was struck by just how parochial it has become. After an extraordinary 300-year run, Britain has essentially resigned as a global power.

Over the next few years, Britain’s army will shrink to somewhere around 80,000. A report from the Royal United Services Institute predicts that the number could get as low as 50,000, which would be smaller than at any point since the 1770s. No wonder, then, that Britain has been a minor, reluctant ally in the airstrikes against the Islamic State.

The same story is true of other elements of Britain’s global influence. In Cameron’s first term, the Foreign Office budget was cut by more than a quarter, and further trims are likely. The BBC World Service, perhaps the most influential arm of the country’s global public diplomacy, has shuttered five of its foreign-language broadcasts, and the entire organisation has seen its budget slashed, with more to come.

Britain essentially created the world we live in. Britain managed to become the first great industrial economy and the modern world’s first superpower. It colonised and shaped countries and cultures from Australia to India to Africa to the Western Hemisphere, including of course, its settlements in North America. Had Spain or Germany become the world’s leading power, things would look very different today.

It is a paradox, readily apparent to visitors to the UK, that London continues to thrive as a global hub, increasingly cosmopolitan and worldly. More than a third of Londoners were born outside the UK. And this government has been more than willing to travel around the world petitioning for investment whether it be Chinese, Russian or Arab. That is fine as a strategy for an aspiring entrepot or financial safe haven, but Britain is not Luxembourg. It is, even now, a country with the talent, history and capacity to shape the international order. Which is why the inward turn of the UK is a tragedy not just for them but for all of us.

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