Eurozone's double dip fears over; China turns to gold; Pakistan's death penalty challenge

1 Eurozone’s double-dip fears over (Larry Elliot in The Guardian) The 18-month double-dip recession in the crisis-stricken eurozone is expected to end on Wednesday with the release of official figures in Brussels showing the return of modest growth in the three months to June. News of a pickup factory production across the 17-nation single currency area during the second quarter left financial markets convinced that a downturn stretching back to the end of 2011 is now over.

Analysts said the 1.2% jump in industrial production coupled with a stronger performance by the construction sector would be enough to produce growth of 0.2% or 0.3% during the spring and early summer. That would reverse a fall of 0.2% in the first three months of 2013. Data showed that the output of the combined manufacturing and energy sectors expanded for the fourth time in five months, helped by a strong performance from the eurozone's biggest economy, Germany.

But with the European commission predicting that 2013 as a whole will see the single currency area contract for a second successive year, economists warned that the formal end of recession was unlikely to herald a period of strong growth. The European Central Bank has pledged to keep interest rates low in an attempt to nurture recovery.

2 China turns to gold (Philip Diehl in The Wall Street Journal) Concerns are rising that the Chinese economy is headed for a hard landing. That would have implications for many markets, not least for gold. Conventional wisdom holds that a slowdown in China will reduce demand for the metal. The Chinese will have less disposable income, the thinking goes, so they'll cut spending on luxury items like jewelry.

But the conventional wisdom is probably wrong. Gold buyers in China are different from gold buyers in the West. In the West, individuals buy gold jewelry for adornment and invest in gold bullion for appreciation and as a store of value. In China, India and much of the rest of the world, gold jewelry is purchased for all three purposes: for adornment, as a store of value and for appreciation.

If the Chinese see their economy headed for a hard landing, they are likely to increase gold purchases as a way of preserving wealth in the face of a depreciating yuan. The Chinese also may buy gold for another reason: increasing social and political instability. For millions of Chinese, the government has failed to deliver its side of a social contract in which Beijing delivers a rapidly rising standard of living in exchange for the public's acceptance of authoritarian rule. Public dissent is growing.

Chinese sociologist Sun Liping has estimated that 180,000 incidents of public protest and rioting occurred in China in 2010, twice the number only four years earlier. As the Chinese economy slows, the government will fail to deliver economic progress to more of its citizens, leading many to join the ranks of those already deeply dissatisfied with the performance and corruption of the government. In such circumstances, the Chinese are likely to turn to gold, as many others have over the centuries, as a financial refuge in times of social and political turmoil.

3 Pakistan’s death penalty challenge (Asma Jahangir & Federico Mayor in Dawn) Pakistan has reportedly one of the largest death row populations in the world with more than 8,000 prisoners sentenced to death, many of whom are now at risk of execution. Faced with an escalating crime rate, the death penalty may appear to be an easy and obvious solution. There is a common perception that the death penalty deters people from committing crimes and that carrying out executions will lead to a decrease in crime. In reality, the death penalty is no ‘quick fix’ to murder or acts of terrorism.

Resorting to executions risks creating the impression that the government is being tough on crime without necessarily addressing fundamental problems in law enforcement and the justice system. There is no convincing evidence that capital punishment is effective in deterring crime. Experience from around the world demonstrates that an effective deterrent to crime is to ensure that the criminal is apprehended, convicted and punished.

Carrying out executions would be a retrograde step which goes against the international trend in favour of the abolition of the death penalty. Some 150 countries have abolished the death penalty or no longer carry out executions. This growing community of states encompasses all major cultures, religions and regions. These countries have recognised that state killing is ineffective in deterring crime, arbitrary in its application and risks executing the innocent.

Opposing the death penalty requires political courage and leadership as highlighted in a 2013 study by ICDP on how states abolish the death penalty. To oppose executions is not to condone the crime: it is to stand up against violence and retribution, and for the rule of law and human rights. As Pakistan celebrates its independence, this represents an opportunity to reaffirm the respect of human dignity for all.