Thursday, September 10, 2015

Biggest fall in food prices since 2008; Fed must worry about inequality, not inflation; Giving compliments without causing offence

1 Biggest fall in food prices since 2008 (BBC) Last month saw a 5.2% fall in global food prices, the biggest drop in seven years, according to the UN. Its Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) saw monthly falls in all major commodities, from milk and vegetables to oils, sugar and cereals.

Food producers are being hit by slowing demand in China and a Russian embargo on Western products. Now the European Commission is to release €500m ($557m) to help Europe's farmers. The commission said the most significant part of the package would support the dairy sector in all EU member states. Dairy farmers have suffered a 20% fall in European wholesale milk prices in the past year.

The European Commission aid comes on top of extra help for European fruit and vegetable farmers, who have been hit by the Russian embargo on Western food imports in retaliation for EU and US sanctions over the crisis in Ukraine. Farmers across Europe have been protesting in recent weeks against the plunging prices that they say are destroying their businesses.

The falling prices are unlikely to be reversed any time soon. The FAO said in a statement: "Ample supplies, a slump in energy prices and concerns over China's economic slowdown all contributed to the sharpest fall of the FAO Food Price Index in almost seven years."

The FAO has raised its forecast for world cereal output in 2015 to 2.54 billion tonnes, thanks to what looks like good wheat and rice harvests in Argentina, Brazil and the US.


2 Fed must worry about inequality, not inflation (Joseph Stiglitz in The Guardian) Seven years after the global financial crisis triggered the Great Recession, “official” unemployment among AfricanAmericans is more than 9%. According to a broader (and more appropriate) definition, which includes part-time employees seeking full-time jobs and marginally employed workers, the unemployment rate for the US as a whole is 10.3%.

But, for African Americans – especially the young – the rate is much higher. For example, for African Americans aged 17 to 20 who have graduated from high school but not enrolled in college, the unemployment rate is over 50%. The “jobs gap” – the difference between today’s employment and what it should be – is three million.

The Fed has a dual mandate – to promote full employment and price stability. It has been more than successful at the second, partly because it has been less than successful at the first. So why will policymakers be considering an interest rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting?

The usual argument for raising interest rates is to dampen an overheating economy in which inflationary pressures have become too high. That is obviously not the case now. Indeed, given wage stagnation and the strong dollar, inflation is well below the Fed’s own 2% target.

If the Fed focuses excessively on inflation, it worsens inequality, which in turn worsens overall economic performance. Wages falter during recessions; if the Fed then raises interest rates every time there is a sign of wage growth, workers’ share will be ratcheted down – never recovering what was lost in the downturn.

I often feel a great deal of sympathy for Fed officials, because they must make close calls in an environment of considerable uncertainty. But the call right now is not a close one. On the contrary, it is as close to a no-brainer as such decisions can be: now is not the time to tighten credit and slow down the economy.


3 Giving compliments without causing offence (Gaby Hinsliff in The Guardian) Here are three simple rules that should keep most men out of trouble. First, if you need to preface something with the words “horrendously politically incorrect”, then you probably don’t want to be saying it to a total stranger in a work context.

Second, if you routinely compliment someone on their looks but never on their thinking, you’re basically saying that you don’t take them remotely seriously. Amazingly, people dislike this.

And third, as ever, it’s all about tone and context. From someone junior at work, “nice dress” can be smarmy; from someone senior, it can be faintly pervy.

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